1) I. A. H. S. / A. I. H. S.

Abstract

A simple method is used to study the response of runoff in the Sahel to climate change. The statistical characteristics of rainfall are calculated over the western part of the Sahel for the period 1961–1990, using the BADOPLU network. Daily rainfall is simulated using a Markov process with Weibull distribution for rainfall depths. Runoff is modelled using a conceptual SCS model and the curve numbers are calculated for West Africa. Climate change is provided by simulations using the Arpège GCM (Scenario A1B), and a perturbation method is used on the parameters which describe the rainfall. Changes in rainfall are assumed to occur through increases in frequency, not intensity. Using Arpège, runoff is mainly found to increase, in depth and in number of events, by the end of the 21st century. Changes in evaporation and land use are not included in the analysis. The impact of this 21st century potential climate change (rainfall) on the runoff is found to be of the same magnitude as the impact of changes in land use.     

二塘沟水库施工控制网平面坐标系的建立和观测

通过对二塘沟水库库区地理位置的分析,得出该地区每公里变形值较大,为满足施工放样精度及业主建设水库的进场公路和下一级水库规划使用的要求,根据二塘沟现有的测绘资料,建立了二塘沟水库施工控制网平面坐标系。采用三等GPS网进行观测,通过统计测量精度,得出该测量精度高等优点。     

地球重力场模型在GPS高程测量中的应用

介绍了地球重力场模型（EGM2008）及其精度,对利用EGM2008模型进行GPS高程测量这一方法进行了探讨。在试验区内采用多种方案进行数据处理,结合试验区内的已有GPS水准点资料的情况进行了分析,通过对多种方案进行比较分析,得出了利用EGM2008模型进行GPS高程测量的精度与采用水准点的大致关系,为GPS高程测量提供一种新思路。     

Low induction number, ground conductivity meters: A correction procedure in the absence of magnetic effects

Ground conductivity meters, comprising a variety of coil–coil configurations, are intended to operate within the limits provided by a low induction number (LIN), electromagnetic condition. They are now routinely used across a wide range of application areas and the measured apparent conductivity data may be spatially assembled and examined/correlated alongside information obtained from many other earth science, environmental, soil and land use assessments. The theoretical behaviour of the common systems is examined in relation to both the prevailing level of subsurface conductivity and the instrument elevation. It is demonstrated that, given the inherent high level of accuracy of modern instruments, the prevailing LIN condition may require operation in environments restricted to very low (< 12 mS/m) conductivities. Beyond this limit, non-linear departures from the apparent conductivity that would be associated with a LIN condition occur and are a function of the coil configuration, the instrument height and the prevailing conductivity. Using both theory and experimental data, it is demonstrated that this has the potential to provide biased and spatially distorted measurements. A simple correction procedure that can be applied to the measured data obtained from any of the LIN instruments is developed. The correction procedure would, in the limit of a uniform subsurface, return the same (correct) conductivity, irrespective of the ground conductivity meter used, the prevailing conductivity or the measurement height.     

基于DERF的SD方法预测月降水和极端降水日数

针对动力气候模式对区域或更小空间尺度内的日降水预测技巧偏低的问题,应用最优子集回归 (OSR) 方法对国家气候中心业务化的月动力气候模式 (DERF) 输出的高度场、风场和海平面气压场进行降尺度处理用于降水预测,旨在提高预测准确率。1982—2006年交叉检验结果表明:OSR方法能显著提高降水预测技巧,其中11~40 d改善效果最为显著。在此基础上,应用一步法和两步法两种统计降尺度方法预测极端降水日数,交叉检验结果表明:两种方法均优于随机预测,冬季两步法预测技巧略高于一步法,夏季一步法略优于两步法。综合认为OSR,OSR结合随机天气发生器 (WG) 两种统计降尺度方法对月尺度降水或极端降水日数的预测均具有较高的技巧,可作为短期气候预测的重要参考信息。     

瑞利数对热对流的影响——在地幔柱中的应用

本文分别在直角坐标系和柱坐标系下,研究瑞利数从104逐渐增大到107对热对流的影响,数值计算结果表明:瑞利数越大,地幔柱越窄,地幔柱上升速度也越快;源自上地幔的地幔柱半径的范围为9到210 km.根据峨眉山内带的半径推算出地幔的黏性系数约为3.8×1021Pa·s,地幔柱平均流动速度为2.5 cm/a.     

Sound level produced during rock drilling vis-à-vis rock properties

The process of drilling, in general, always produces sound. Though sound is used as a diagnostic tool in mechanical industry, its application in predicting rock property is not much explored. In this study, an attempt has been made to estimate rock properties such as uniaxial compressive strength, Schmidt rebound number and Young's modulus using sound level produced during rotary drilling. For this purpose, a computer numerical controlled vertical milling centre was used for drilling holes with drill bit diameters ranging from 6 to 20 mm with a shank length of 40 mm. Fourteen different rock types were tested. The study was carried out to develop the empirical relations using multiple regression analysis between sound level produced during drilling and rock properties considering the effects of drill bit diameter, drill bit speed and drill bit penetration rate. The F-test was used to check the validity of the developed models. The measured rock property values and the values calculated from the developed regression model are fairly close, indicating that the developed models could be efficiently used with acceptable accuracy in prediction of rock properties.     

横-竖筋带布置对地基影响的试验研究

分别针对纯砂地基、水平加筋地基和新型三维立体加筋(简称横-竖加筋)地基进行了多组模型试验。主要研究了单层横-竖加筋深度和横-竖加筋层数对地基的影响,并通过与水平加筋地基的比较,结合横-竖地基砂土滑移面的形状,初步分析了横-竖加筋地基的加固机制。试验结果表明,同等试验条件下,横-竖筋的加筋效果较水平筋的好,对于单层横-竖加筋地基,加筋效果随加筋深度的增加而减弱,加筋深度超过一定范围后,加筋对地基受力性能的改善不明显。对于多层横-竖加筋地基,随加筋层数的增加,承载力增加,沉降减小。     

An Exploration of the Interplay between the Measurement Uncertainty and the Number of Samples in Contaminated Land Investigations

In the assessment of potentially contaminated land, the number of samples and the uncertainty of the measurements (including that from sampling) are both important factors in the planning and implementation of an investigation. Both parameters also effect the interpretation of the measurements produced, and the process of making decisions based upon those measurements. However, despite their importance, previously there has been no method for assessing if an investigation is fit‐for‐purpose with respect to both of these parameters. The Whole Site Optimised Contaminated Land Investigation (WSOCLI) method has been developed to address this issue, and to allow the optimisation of an investigation with respect to both the number of samples and the measurement uncertainty, using an economic loss function. This function was developed to calculate an ‘expectation of (financial) loss’, incorporating costs of the investigation itself, subsequent land remediation, and potential consequential costs. To allow the evaluation of the WSOCLI method a computer program ‘OCLISIM’ has been developed to produce sample data from simulated contaminated land investigations. One advantage of such an approach is that as the ‘true’ contaminant concentrations are created by the program, these values are known, which is not the case in a real contaminated land investigation. This enables direct comparisons between functions of the ‘true’ concentrations and functions of the simulated measurements. A second advantage of simulation for this purpose is that the WSOCLI method can be tested on many different patterns and intensities of contamination. The WSOCLI method performed particularly well at high sampling densities producing expectations of financial loss that approximated to the true costs, which were also calculated by the program. WSOCLI was shown to produce notable trends in the relationship between the overall cost (i.e., expectation of loss) and both the number of samples and the measurement uncertainty, which are: (a) low measurement uncertainty was optimal when the decision threshold was between the mean background and the mean hot spot concentrations. (b) When the hot spot mean concentration is equal to or near the decision threshold, then mid‐range measurement uncertainties were optimal. (c) When the decision threshold exceeds the mean of the hot spot, mid‐range measurement uncertainties were optimal. The trends indicate that the uncertainty may continue to rise if the difference between hot spot mean and the decision threshold increases further. (d) In any of the above scenarios, the optimal measurement uncertainty was lower if there is a large geochemical variance (i.e., heterogeneity) within the hot spot. (e) The optimal number of samples for each scenario was indicated by the WSOCLI method, and was between 50 and 100 for the scenarios considered generally; although there was significant noise in the predictions, which needs to be addressed in future work to allow such conclusions to be clearer.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987111000181

This study investigates the mechanism of formation of convection plumes of mushroom shape in sub-solidus mantle and their prediction.The seismic-tomographic images of columnar structures of several hundreds kilometers in diameter have been reported by several researchers,while the much cherished mushroom-shaped plume heads could only be found in computational geodynamics(CGD) models and simple small-scale laboratory analogue simulations.Our theory of transient instability shows that the formation of conv...