关于地震预报决策程序问题的讨论

地震预报决策是大家所关心的问题。地震预报决策正确与否,关系到能否达到减灾目的。科学的地震预报决策程序是实现正确的地震预报决策的保证。本文就地震预报决策中有关决策目标的确定,地震预测,震害预测,地震对策,预报决策备择方案的制定及评估,决策方案的选择及实施等问题进行了讨论。     

THE RIVER CHANNEL ADJUSTMENT AS INFLUENCED BY THE FLOODPLAIN GEOECOSYSTEM： AN EXAMPLE FROM THE HONGSHAN RESERVOIR

ＴＨＥＲＩＶＥＲＣＨＡＮＮＥＬＡＤＪＵＳＴＭＥＮＴＡＳＩＮＦＬＵＥＮＣＥＤＢＹＴＨＥＦＬＯＯＤＰＬＡＩＮＧＥＯＥＣＯＳＹＳＴＥＭ：ＡＮＥＸＡＭＰＬＥＦＲＯＭＴＨＥＨＯＮＧＳＨＡＮＲＥＳＥＲＶＯＩＲ￥ＸＵＪｉｏｎｇｘｉｎ；ＳＨＩＣｈａｎｇｘｉｎｇ（Ｐｒ...     

BAYES方差分量估计在虚拟权平差中的应用

本文把近似Bayes方基分量估计公式应用于矿区扩建网的虚拟权平差中，解决了具体计算中的一些实际问题，最后，通过一矿区扩建网平差实例验证了该方法的可行性．     

River adjustment to changes in sediment load: The effects of tin mining on the Ringarooma River,Tasmania, 1875–1984

The mining of alluvial tin in the Ringarooma basin began in 1875, reached a peak in 1900–20, and had virtually ceased by 1982. During that time 40 million m³ of mining waste were supplied to the main river, quickly replacing the natural bed material and requiring major adjustments to the channel. Based on estimates of sediment supply from more than 50 widely scattered mines and the frequency of flows capable of transporting the introduced load, the river's transport history is reconstructed using a mass-conservation model. Because of the lengthy time period (110 years) and river distance (75 km) involved, the model cannot predict detailed change but it does reproduce the main pattern of sediment movement in which successive phases of aggradation and degradation progress downstream. Peak storage is predicted in that part of the river where braiding and anastomosis are best developed. Aggradation was most rapid in the upper reaches close to major supply points, becoming slower and later with distance downstream. Channel width increased by up to 300 per cent where the valley floor was broad and braiding became relatively common. Bridges had frequently to be replaced. While bed levels were still rising in lower reaches, degradation began in upper ones, notably after 1950, and by 1984 had progressed downriver over 30 km. Rates of incision reached 0·5 m yr^?1, especially in the early 1970s when record high flows occurred. As a result of degradation the bed material became gravelly through either reexposure of the original bed or lag concentration of coarser fractions. Also a narrower unbraided channel has developed. The river is beginning to heal itself and upper reaches now have reasonably stable beds but at least another 50 years will be required for the river to cleanse its channel of mining debris.     

在地面三角网中布设卫星观测站的最低精度要求

本文从地面三角网和卫星同联合平差的原理出发,讨论了对卫星网的最低精度要求。指出,为改善地面三角网而布设卫星网时,卫星观测站的最低精度主要决定于以下因素: ——地面三角网的精度; ——对地面三角网精度改善程度的要求; 一卫星观测站之间的距离。这里通过模拟计算对卫星网的最低精度要求与上列因素之间的关系作了数字分析,并建立了估算卫星网最低精度的数学模型。预期,在一般情况下,该模型的估算误差将不会超过10％。     

美国长期天气预报业务的新发展──发布气候展望

从１９９５年元月份起，美国天气局正式发布预见期为一年的业务性气候展望，该文简要地介绍了美国天气局作出这些重大变更的科学依据、预报方法、预报制作与预报准确等方面的情况。     

江苏水文站网优化调整有关问题的思考

在概述全省站网现状基础上，分析了站网优化调整的主要原因，提出了如何优化调整的总体思路和基本构想，进一步明确强调在水文站网优化调整中需要坚持和把握的原则和方法。     

新时期农村产业结构优化调整研究

通过在农村长期的工作实践和对农村经济发展的考察,依据当前国内外发展对农村产业经济发展的要求,分析研究我国和河南省农村产业结构的发展现状和动态变化,提出农村产业结构调整的指导思想、原则及目标,据此,从农村产业结构调整、农业产业结构调整和种植业结构调整3个层次,研究提出农村产业结构调整的基本思路和方向,为有关部门决策农村经济发展提供科学依据.     

An Estimate of Global Mean Sea-level Rise Inferred from Tide-gauge Measurements Using Glacial-isostatic Models Consistent with the Relative Sea-level Record

This study is concerned with the influence of the glacial-isostatic adjustment caused by the last Pleistocene deglaciation on the present-day sea level. The viscoelastic deformation caused by the time-variable ice and ocean loads is simulated by computing the resulting perturbations for a spherical, self-gravitating, incompressible, Maxwell-viscoelastic earth model. The associated variation of the earth rotation is described in terms of the Liouville equation, which is solved by means of the MacCullagh formulae. This allows the determination of the vertical displacement and geoid height and, thus, the solution of the sea-level equation. We test several viscosity and ice models and evaluate them by comparison of the computed response with the Holocene relative sea-level record. Using the optimum combination of viscosity and ice models, we then estimate the influence of the last Pleistocene deglaciation on the tide-gauge measurements. A comparison between the observational and residual linear trends for the tide-gauge measurements shows a significant reduction of the variance and geographical variability for the latter, in particular for the formerly ice-covered regions of North America and Scandinavia. The favoured value determined for the global mean sea-level rise is (1.46±0.2) mm a⁻¹.