Landslide movements triggered by rainfall can be foreseen in real-time by modelling the relationship between rainfall amount
and landslide occurrence. This paper deals with the problem of the reliability of the FLaIR (Forecasting of Landslides Induced
by Rainfalls) model when applied to forecasting landslide movements in the usual condition of poor historical information
availability. In this case, the identification of the admissibility field for the model parameters, instead of a point estimation,
leads to an improvement of the forecasting reliability. Moreover, this approach makes the model capable of taking into account
information embodied in periods of heavy rain but without movement. The concepts of informative content and foreseeability
of landslide movements are introduced and their duality is analyzed. The effectiveness of the estimation procedure described
has been tested by application on two landslides located in southern Italy.
Received: 15 October 1996 · Accepted: 25 June 1997 相似文献
A computer program for reconstructing environmental variables (e.g. lake-water pH) from fossil assemblages (e.g. diatoms) by weighted averaging regression and calibration is described. The estimation of sample-specific errors of prediction by bootstrapping is outlined. The program runs on IBM-compatible personal computers. 相似文献