Quadrature-based approach for the efficient evaluation of surge hazard

The Joint Probability Method (JPM) has been used for hurricane surge frequency analysis for over three decades, and remains the method of choice owing to the limitations of more direct historical methods. However, use of the JPM approach in conjunction with the modern generation of complex high-resolution numerical models (used to describe winds, waves, and surge) has become highly inefficient, owing to the large number of costly storm simulations that are typically required. This paper describes a new approach to the selection of the storm simulation set that permits reduction of the JPM computational effort by about an order of magnitude (compared to a more conventional approach) while maintaining good accuracy. The method uses an integration scheme called Bayesian or Gaussian-process quadrature (together with conventional integration methods) to evaluate the multi-dimensional joint probability integral over the space of storm parameters (pressure, radius, speed, heading, and any others found to be important) as a weighted summation over a relatively small set of optimally selected nodes (synthetic storms). Examples of an application of the method are shown, drawn from the recent post-Katrina study of coastal Mississippi.     

Storm surge induced flux through multiple tidal passes of Lake Pontchartrain estuary during Hurricanes Gustav and Ike

In September 2008, Hurricanes Gustav and Ike generated major storm surges which impacted the Lake Pontchartrain estuary in Louisiana. This paper presents analyses of in situ measurements acquired during these storm events. The main data used in the analyses were from three bottom mounted moorings equipped with conductivity, temperature, and depth sensors, acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs), and a semi-permanent laterally mounted horizontal acoustic Doppler profiler (ADP). These moorings were deployed in the three major tidal channels that connect Lake Pontchartrain with the coastal ocean. A process similar to tidal straining was observed: the vertical shear of the horizontal velocity was negligible during the inundation stage, but a shear of 0.8 m/s over a less than 5 m water column was recorded during the receding stage, 2–3 times the normal tidal oscillations. The surge reached its peak in the Industrial Canal 1.4–2.1 h before those in the other two channels. The inward flux of water lasted for a shorter time period than that of the outward flux. The inward flux was also observed to have much smaller magnitude than the outward flux (∼960–1200 vs. 2100–3100 million m³). The imbalance was believed to have been caused by the additional water into Lake Pontchartrain through some small rivers and inundation over the land plus rainfall from the hurricanes. The flux through the Industrial Canal was 8–12%, while the flux through the other two tidal passes ranged between 17% and 70% of the total, but mostly split roughly half-half of the remaining (∼88–92% of the total).     

转动物台椭圆偏光运动轨迹分析

本文研究了转动物台椭圆偏光的运动规律,并用公式和图解表示椭圆偏光运动轨迹,导出的椭圆偏光方程式集中反映了各公式之间的关系。为解决椭圆偏光长轴运动轨迹,推导出计算椭圆长轴(a)和视旋转角(Ar)两个新公式,使最大视旋转角所对应的物台转角的研究有新的进展。本文重点讨论不透明矿物反射光的椭圆偏光的性质,但对透明矿物透射光的椭圆偏光也有一定意义。     

Radon in soil anomaly observed at Los Azufres geothermal field,Michoacan: a possible precursor of the 1985 Mexico earthquake (Ms = 8.1)

A radon anomaly in a nuclear track detector placed on a fault was detected prior to the destructive (Ms = 8.1) Mexican earthquake of 19 September 1985. The fault is a structural feature of the geothermal field Los Azufres, 260 km NE of the epicentral area. Since no other phenomenon can be found as a possible cause for the radon anomaly, it is proposed that preseismic regional stress perturbations may produce changes in the fluid transport patterns at the fault, suggesting that radon measurements in similar conditions could provide a good precursor in high seismic risk areas.     

玻璃包裹体裂变径迹在46O矿床中的应用

460矿床是火山岩型铀矿床。玻璃包裹体中裂变径迹研究表明:成矿岩体次流纹斑岩的原始铀含量为13.0ppm;裂变径迹测年龄法在强烈蚀变地区可以作为一种测年龄的有效辅助手段。     

西北太平洋热带气旋路径时间标度律的研究

时间标度计算表明，西北太平洋热带气旋路径是一个无标度性的系统，其关联方差谱遵从频率的－２￣－３次方幂律，不同背景下的路径系统均如此。由此得到的不同季节、不同地域的热带气旋路径可预报时间尺度基本上为３￣４ｄ，但异常热带气旋路径的可预报时间尺度则为１￣２ｄ。     

冬季西北太平洋海表温度异常对太平洋风暴轴影响的数值试验

采用Ｔ２１Ｌ５大气环流模式，详细探讨了冬季西北太平洋海表温度异常对太平洋风暴轴的影响。结果表明：冬季西北太平洋暖海表温度异常能显著增强异常区北侧及下游地区的斜压性，天气尺度扰动方差、扰动动能以及涡动热量通量等也在此风暴轴入口区得到增强，由此揭示出外热源强迫对太平洋风暴轴的维持和发展起重要作用。     

石英裂变径迹蚀刻条件的对比实验研究

通过 40%的 HF溶液、KOH饱和溶液和 19 mol/L的 NaOH溶液这三种常用方法对大、小颗粒石英进行裂变径迹蚀刻实验的对比发现,用环氧树脂固定的小颗粒石英样品,不宜用 KOH饱和溶液(150 ℃)和 19 mol/L的 NaOH溶液(沸点,约 120 ℃)作为裂变径迹的蚀刻剂,宜用 40%的 HF溶液;三种方法均适宜于大颗粒石英,但不同的蚀刻方法蚀刻效率不同, 40%的 HF溶液(29 ℃)的蚀刻效率最高,且操作简单、安全性高.40%的 HF溶液最佳蚀刻时间为: 温度在 4 ℃左右(冬季)时为 40 min,温度在 29 ℃左右(夏季)时为 30 min,可在全年室内常温条件下操作.     

Numerical Simulation of Andhra Severe Cyclone (2003): Model Sensitivity to the Boundary Layer and Convection Parameterization

The Andhra severe cyclonic storm (2003) is simulated to study its evolution, structure, intensity and movement using the Penn State/NCAR non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model MM5. The model is used with three interactive nested domains at 81, 27 and 9 km resolutions covering the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Peninsula. The performance of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and convective parameterization on the simulated features of the cyclone is studied by conducting sensitivity experiments. Results indicate that while the boundary layer processes play a significant role in determining both the intensity and movement, the convective processes especially control the movement of the model storm. The Mellor-Yamada scheme is found to yield the most intensive cyclone. While the combination of Mellor-Yamada (MY) PBL and Kain-Fritsch 2 (KF2) convection schemes gives the most intensive storm, the MRF PBL with KF2 convection scheme produces the best simulation in terms of intensity and track. Results of the simulation with the combination of MRF scheme for PBL and KF2 for convection show the evolution and major features of a mature tropical storm. The model has very nearly simulated the intensity of the storm though slightly overpredicted. Simulated core vertical temperature structure, winds at different heights, vertical winds in and around the core, vorticity and divergence fields at the lower and upper levels—all support the characteristics of a mature storm. The model storm has moved towards the west of the observed track during the development phase although the location of the storm in the initial and final phases agreed with the observations. The simulated rainfall distribution associated with the storm agreed reasonably with observations.     

近圆轨道遥感卫星星下点轨迹的计算

根据遥感卫星轨道的特点，提出了计算近圆轨道卫星星下点轨迹的算法，并对其进行精度评估。结果表明这种算法是快捷和有效的，能够满足卫星规划阶段对轨道精度的要求。