新世纪上海地区相对海平面变化影响因素及预测方法

针对传统相对海平面变化分析方法均将理论海平面变化和地面沉降进行的叠加分析,本文讨论和分析了近20年来全球理论海平面上升速率加快背景下的区域海平面变化速率,利用灰色线性回归组合模型预测上海地区海平面变化趋势。考虑了上海地面沉降发展的新特点,以及长江流域来沙显著减少和河口大型工程建设对上海地区相对海平面变化的影响。在流域来沙量显著减少但来水量变化不大情况下,流域大坝的坝下冲刷使得河槽刷深,河口水位降低,同时长江口深水航道整治工程和促淤围垦工程束狭入海口,使得潮位站水位发生变化,两者的综合效应是目前研究长江口相对海平面变化时必须考虑的重要因素。     

香港西贡滨珊瑚REE的地球化学特征及其与海平面变化的关系

用ICP-MS技术测定了位于珠江口西岸香港西贡滨珊瑚在1991～2002年(分辨率达到0.5a)的稀土元素(REE)含量。实验结果显示香港滨珊瑚REE具有Ce负异常、重稀土富集这种典型的海水相分布模式。香港滨珊瑚中REE含量处于目前已见报道中的高值范围,与巴布亚新几内亚珊瑚的REE含量相当。通过与不同地区的比较,香港珊瑚高REE含量很可能就是毗邻的珠江水体高REE的直接反映,而且同南海北缘半封闭边缘海的性质有关。香港珊瑚REE的来源主要为珠江口及其相邻的陆缘沉积物。此外,1991～2002年香港珊瑚REE含量年际下降趋势十分明显,Ce负异常和重稀土富集的程度也呈加剧的趋势,分布模式向海水相转化。REE含量与海平面的年际变化之间有显著的负相关关系(r=-0.7～-0.9),而且重稀土与海平面的相关系数优于轻稀土。上述结果揭示了热带滨珊瑚对近期全球变暖、极冰融化和海水膨胀所引起的海平面快速上升的响应。     

Nutrient composition and distributions in coastal waters impacted by the Changjiang plume

Four cruises were conducted during 2002--2003 in the Changjiang Estuary and adjacent coastal areas. The data presented show a clear coast to open sea gradient in nutrients related to the river inputs. Maximum values of chlorophyll a were typically observed at intermediate salinities at surface water and coincided with non-conservative decreases in nutrients along the salinity gradient, indicating that removal of nutrients was related to phytoplankton uptake. The seasonal variations of nutrient concentrations were just opposite to those of chlorophyll a, indicating that the seasonal variations of nutrients were mainly controlled by phytoplankton uptake, whereas riverine inputs merely weakened or balanced its extent. During the estuarine mixing, phosphate demonstrated some remobilization during all the four cruises; whereas both conservative and non-conservative behaviors for dissolved inorganic nitrogen and silicate were observed in the study area, indicating that both biotic and abiotic events may affect their behaviors during the estuarine mixing. Under the influence of freshwater inputs with high value of ratio of nitrogen to phosphorus, the estuarine and coastal waters impacted by the Changjiang plume were high （ 〉 30） in ratio of nitrogen to phosphorus, but rates of primary production were apparently not constrained by any kind of nutrient elements. However, the low （ 〈 1 ） ratio of silicate to nitrogen in most of the study area might be linked with the rapidly increasing frequency of harmful algal bloom （HAB） incidents in recent years in the coastal waters impacted by the Changjiang plume.     

基于InSAR技术的川西高山峡谷区地质灾害早期识别研究——以小金川河流域为例

采用短基线集时序干涉测量(small baseline subset InSAR,SBAS-InSAR)技术,利用多时相合成孔径雷达数据,对川西高山峡谷区开展地表多时相、长时序形变监测与地质灾害隐患早期识别研究。介绍了时序InSAR方法原理,梳理了数据处理流程,分析了小金川河流域雷达可视性,利用2018-11—2019-12共26期的Sentinel-1A历史存档数据开展了流域内地表形变监测,结果表明: 流域内雷达视线方向的年平均形变速率为-51.12~75.28 mm/a; 依据形变异常分布规律,共判译出4处形变异常区与11处潜在地质灾害隐患点,其中6处隐患点为已知地质灾害点,其余5处隐患点尚不为人知。以隐患点P1(阿娘寨滑坡)为典型案例,开展了长时序监测分析与验证,评估利用InSAR技术开展地质灾害隐患早期识别的可靠性,证明了SBAS-InSAR技术在地质灾害早期识别中的优势及有效性,其技术成果在川西高山峡谷区具有大范围推广应用的潜力。     

Comparisons of Simulations of Soil Moisture Variations in the Yellow River Basin Driven by Various Atmospheric Forcing Data Sets

Based on station observations, The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA40), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis and Princeton University's global meteorological forcing data set (Princeton), four atmospheric forcing fields were constructed for use in driving the Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5). Simulated soil moisture content throughout the period 1951-2000 in the Yellow River basin was vali...     

Geometry of two glacial valleys in the northern Pyrenees estimated using gravity data

We estimate using gravity data the thickness of post-glacial unconsolidated sediment filling two major glacial valleys in northern Pyrenees: the Gave de Pau valley between Pierrefitte-Nestalas and Lourdes, and the Garonne valley between Saint-Béat and Barbazan. One hundred and eighty-four new gravity data complete 74 measurements obtained from the International Gravimetric Bureau database. Negative residual anomalies resulting from the presence of small-density unconsolidated sediment approach 4 mgal in both the Gave de Pau and the Garonne valleys. Estimating the sediment thickness requires knowing the density contrast between Quaternary sediments and the underlying bedrock. Supposing this density contrast is 600 kg/m³, the maximum estimated thickness of post-glacial sediment is ∼ 230 and 300 meters, and the volume of sediment is 2.1 and 3.2 km³ in the Gave de Pau and Garonne valleys, respectively. In both valleys, the depth of Quaternary sediment suddenly increases at the confluence between two major glacial valleys (Gave de Pau – Gave de Cauterets, and Garonne – Pique confluences). Overdeepened basins are less deep downstream when approaching terminal moraines (Lourdes and Barbazan area), illustrating that the efficiency of glacial erosion depends on the ice flux flowing through valleys.     

白云凹陷地球物理场及深部结构特征

珠江口盆地白云凹陷是南海最具代表性的第三系深水陆坡沉积区。以穿过白云凹陷中部的一条深反射地震剖面(14s)为研究基础，采用综合地球物理研究方法分析了该区地球物理场特征，根据重力异常平面等值线勾画了白云凹陷的形态，并提取该测线相对应的重磁剖面数据，利用重磁资料和地震剖面进行了综合反演。以深剖面地震资料建立了地质模型，利用所得的重力数据进行了研究深部结构的正演拟合，实测与计算值拟合较好，支持中生代俯冲洋壳存在的观点；同时结合地震资料对深部结构进行了分析，该区莫霍面由陆向海抬升，呈阶梯状变化，地壳厚度逐渐减薄，具有大陆边缘陆壳向洋壳过渡的特征。根据地质模型还进行了变密度综合反演拟合来分析基底岩性特征，该区基底主要为中酸性岩浆岩，部分为变质岩和基性火山岩，岩石密度由陆向洋逐渐减小，磁性体分布不均。     

澜沧江-湄公河流域径流与气候因子变化的季节差异特征研究

根据DELWARE温度和降水数据、GLDAS蒸散发数据和湄公河干流9个水文站的实测径流,采用回归分析、均值T检验和低通滤波,分析了该流域气候和径流在1950-2017年间的变化情况,经分析表明流域内气候和径流在研究时段内有较大变化,而且在不同的月份呈现不同的变化特征。流域年平均温度整体呈增加趋势,2008年后的平均温度相对2008年前平均温度有显著增加;流域年平均降水的变化幅度不大;流域平均蒸散发在12月-次年2月呈下降趋势,其他月份呈增加趋势,2008-2017年月平均蒸散发与1950-2007年月平均蒸散发相比大幅提升,尤其是在6-10月;湄公河流域年径流没有显著变化,但径流在12月-次年4月呈上升趋势,7-10月呈下降趋势,其中,上升趋势比下降趋势显著,1-4月径流上升趋势在2008年之后更为显著;最小径流在2008年后有显著增加趋势,最大径流在2008年后呈下降趋势;年流量逆转次数自20世纪90年代起有明显升高趋势。通过比较温度、降水、蒸散发和径流在不同时间段的变化情况,可以看出径流在2008年后变化趋势和气候自然变化关系不显著,但可能跟大坝蓄水能力显著提高等人为活动有较大关系。     

大渡河长河坝水电站区域泥石流特征及危险性评价

2009年7月23日,四川省甘孜州康定县舍联乡长河坝水电站施工区响水沟发生特大泥石流灾害,造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失。响水沟是大渡河上游段右岸一级支沟,近百年来泥石流活动不明显。由于之前近一个月的连续降雨,沟谷内的不稳定堆积物已基本处于饱水状态,当日的强降雨直接诱发了此次泥石流灾害。本文根据现场调查资料,就该沟泥石流的形成条件、灾害成因及特征进行分析,并应用灰色系统理论关联分析方法和沟谷泥石流危险度计算分析综合评价其危险性。结果表明,在极端气象条件下,响水沟仍有可能发生中等至大规模暴雨型粘性泥石流。     

浅圆沉积谷地对瑞雷波的散射--高频解

利用波函数展开法给出了浅圆沉积谷地对瑞雷波散射的一个高频解析解,并分析了入射频率、沉积谷地宽度和深度等因素对波散射的影响. 数值结果表明,由于沉积谷地的影响, 在入射波的近端,地表位移分布变得相对复杂,但位移幅值并不大;而在入射波远端,地表位移分布相对简单,但位移幅值却相对较大,多数情况下高于沉积地表位移幅值.