Scenarios for the Future Population of Sydney

The period 1996-2001 has witnessed a refocusing of population growth on Sydney and Melbourne as both cities have developed significant concentrations of so-called 'new economy' jobs and taken on, to greater or lesser extents, the characteristics of global cities. The consequence of these trends, for Sydney most particularly, is population growth. This paper establishes this demographic reality by describing recent demographic trends in Sydney and possible future scenarios for Sydney's population, given differing levels of fertility, internal migration and international migration. A related future trend is also traced--that the number of households in Sydney will grow more rapidly than the population due to changes in household structure. This raises the issue of how and where these households will be accommodated, given the relative land shortage in the Sydney Statistical Division and given that there is no doubt that planners in New South Wales will be attempting to maintain and enhance Sydney's status as a global city. In sum, the paper argues that Sydney planners should be preparing for growth of around one million people in the next 20 years and a further one million in the following 30 years. To maintain that potential future residents of Sydney can be redirected to other parts of New South Wales is a vain hope.     

A new look at population change and regional development in Aotearoa New Zealand

In New Zealand, population change is interlinked with regional development. Places growing in population attract regional investment, while regional investment—or lack thereof—can change migration patterns. However, to determine the appropriate response to population change for a community, it is important to understand that population change involves much more than “just” migration. Specifically, it involves interactions between the three components of population change: natural change (births minus deaths), net migration (international and internal) and population ageing (changing cohort size). For example, migration can be negative, but growth can be positive due to underlying natural increase or growth in cohort size. Responses need to differ, depending on these drivers. The goal of this article is to provide new insights into these interactions using data for 275 cities, towns and rural centres (hereafter “urban places”) in New Zealand for the period 1976 to 2013. The results show that natural change has been consistently positive for most urban places up to the present, although projections indicate that in the future this component will become negative across much of the country. At the same time, net migration shows considerable spatial variation, not only in terms of volume, but also direction (negative or positive), which differs markedly by age. A net gain of people of retirement age can offset a net loss of young adults to deliver overall growth, and vice‐versa, but the two have very different implications for longer term growth. An analysis of the drivers of net migration using GIS and machine learning techniques provides an indication of the importance of economic conditions (land‐use and access to markets), lifestyle, access to essential services (hospitals and education) and their interaction with age in regional change. The results show that population age is the best predictor of migration. Younger people are moving to cities for tertiary education and work and older people near or in retirement are moving to smaller lifestyle towns but also want to be close to amenities such as hospitals and international airports. The research also shows that natural lifestyle characteristics (landscape and climate), in combination with age are just as important as economic conditions for understanding migration. Regional development, such as infrastructure that helps business (ports and services) is important for the working age population but not necessarily the retirement age group. When regional development, age/life‐cycle stage and lifestyle come together, such as in Queenstown and Tauranga, net migration gain is high.     

夏热冬暖地区住宅户式中央空调的能耗比较

针对夏热冬暖地区住宅空调的特点,结合广东省液化天然气一体化试点项目,对比不同形式户式中央空调额定工况一次能源利用率和全年平均一次能源利用率。结果表明:天然气应用于户式中央空调中,电制冷户式中央空调的能源利用效率比较高,尤以多联空调为最高。     

The household economy of pastoralists and wage-labourers in the Richtersveld, South Africa

The Richtersveld is situated in an arid environment and its inhabitants are confronted with various hazards. Based on data collected during 22 months of ethnographic fieldwork, the livelihood strategies of Richtersvelders are explored. Besides a thorough examination of the diversified economy, the internal institutional arrangements for pooling and redistributing resources within households are analysed in this paper. Encouraging household members to engage in different activities and to share their income—as well as skills to manage the household budget properly—are integral to diversification and reducing the vulnerability of households. This study has shown that even in a community marked by considerable dependence on wage labour, almost three-quarters of the households are directly involved in stock farming. Although pastoralism still plays an important role for households, it has shifted from being the core economic activity to being an insurance against unemployment and contributing to subsistence. Stock farming serves to build up resilience through the diversification of economic activities inside the household. In the South African context, the relevance of activities dependent on land has implications not only for rural development, but also for post-apartheid land and agrarian reform.     

Environmental impacts of household appliances in Europe and scenarios for their impact reduction

Assessing the environmental impact due to consumption of goods and services is a pivotal step towards achieving the sustainable development goal related to responsible production and consumption (i.e. SDG 12). Household appliances plays a crucial role and should be assessed in a systemic manner, namely considering all life cycle stages, technological efficiency, and affluence aspects. The present study assess the impact of such household appliances used in Europe, and tests scenarios of potential impact reduction at various scales. Life cycle assessment is applied to 14 different household appliances (ranging from dishwashers to television devices) selected to build a set of representative products, based on their economic value and diffusion in households in Europe. Related impacts are calculated with the Environmental Footprint method for calculating a Consumer Footprint “appliances” for the baseline year 2010. A number of scenarios encompassing eco-solutions on a technical level, changes in consumption pattern, behavioral changes, as well as the combination of all these aspects are run to estimate the Consumer Footprint related to household appliances for the year 2030, compared against this baseline scenario. The baseline Consumer Footprint is confirming the importance of the use phase in leading the impacts in almost all impact categories. Testing different scenarios concludes that there is a reduction of the impact for most of the categories (with up to 67% for the ozone depletion potential, and still around 35% for the global warming potential), while two of the here examined impact categories (i.e. land-use and mineral resource depletion) show an overall potential that is even negative – i.e. the results of all scenarios are higher than the ones of the 2010 baseline scenario. The increase in purchase and use of such appliances may offset energy efficiency benefits in some of the examined categories. Hence, the assessment of sustainability of appliances consumption should always include several scales, from the efficiency of the products (micro scale), to the improvement of the energy mix (meso scale), up to accounting for socio-economic drivers and patterns of consumption affecting the overall appliances stock (macro scale).     

Bringing it all back home: The extensification and ‘overflowing’ of work: The case of San Francisco’s new media households

This paper explores the extensification of work—that is the distribution or exporting of work across different spaces/scales and times—and its impact on individual workers and households. We argue that contracting out and the work life balance debates might be developed more usefully within the holistic framework of extensification. The key process that we follow can be described as overflowing. We contrast the universally positive representations of spillovers and embedding that we are familiar with in economic geographies with the more negatively characterised overflowing of work into and out of the household. The paper is built around a case study of those involved in the new media industry in San Francisco: households, workers and companies.     

Recovery from demographic shock in the New Länder of Germany

After the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, East Germany experienced a demographic shock as the ensuing insecurity and disorientation of the population was mirrored in their demographic behaviour. The situation is examined with respect to marriage, fertility and mortality. There are now signs of recovery but most people in the New Länder are still traumatised by events: nuptiality and fertility are still extremely low, while mortality is rapidly moving towards West German levels. Future demographic development will very much depend on socio-economic development and the provision of both hard and soft infrastructure conducive to stable partnerships and families since the current 'framework' has proved to be particularly unfriendly to women and children.     

Socioeconomic transformation in rural Romania through the eyes of experts: Demographic and social issues

There is no standard model of transformation for post- socialist countries and each country encounters specific problems rooted in the geographical characteristics of the areas concerned. The human resources are of the greatest importance because it really matters how people (especially the decision-makers) perceive system change and continually reformulate their expectations and strategies; so investigations into the views of people caught up in the transformation can provide a deeper understanding of the background to structural change. Working the national, regional level and local levels in Romania, experts were asked to consider the advantages and disadvantages arising out of the transformation, the most important problems and constraints for future rural development and the policies needed. The paper examines the responses on demographic and social issues. It emerges the most detailed responses were supplied by local-level representatives while respondents at the regional level steered a middle course between the need to address local problems and the prime importance of stimulating the Romanian economy so as to generate resources for welfare programmes (with the latter issue the overriding concern of interviewees at national level). There was general agreement on the importance of foreign investment and European integration for economic development, with local actors taking only small steps in line with the existing opportunities. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A bridge too far? The influence of socio-cultural values on the adaptation responses of smallholders to a devastating pest outbreak in cocoa

The influence of socio-cultural factors on the adaptive capacity, resilience and trade-offs in decision-making of households and communities is receiving growing scholarly attention. In many partly transformed societies, where the market economy is not well developed, livelihood practices are heavily structured by kinship and indigenous social and economic values. Farm investment decisions and incentives to produce agricultural commodities are shaped by a host of considerations in addition to market imperatives like profit. In one such partly transformed society in East New Britain Province, Papua New Guinea, we examine the adaptation decisions of smallholders in response to the drastic drop of yield in their cocoa plots caused by the sudden outbreak of Cocoa Pod Borer. To explain why the impact of the pest has been so great we examine the interconnections between household responses, the local socio-cultural and economic context of smallholder commodity crop production and the wider institutional environment in which household choices and decisions are made. We argue that the significant lifestyle changes and labour intensive farming methods required for the effective control of Cocoa Pod Borer are incompatible with existing smallholder farming systems, values and livelihoods. To adopt a high input cropping system requires more than a technical fix and some training; it also requires abandoning a ‘way of life’ that provides status, identity and a moral order, and which is therefore highly resistant to change. The paper highlights the enduring influence and significance of local, culturally-specific beliefs and socio-economic values and their influence on how individuals and communities make adaptation decisions.     

Environmental impacts of household appliances in Europe and scenarios for their impact reduction

Assessing the environmental impact due to consumption of goods and services is a pivotal step towards achieving the sustainable development goal related to responsible production and consumption (i.e. SDG 12). Household appliances plays a crucial role and should be assessed in a systemic manner, namely considering all life cycle stages, technological efficiency, and affluence aspects. The present study assess the impact of such household appliances used in Europe, and tests scenarios of potential impact reduction at various scales. Life cycle assessment is applied to 14 different household appliances (ranging from dishwashers to television devices) selected to build a set of representative products, based on their economic value and diffusion in households in Europe. Related impacts are calculated with the Environmental Footprint method for calculating a Consumer Footprint “appliances” for the baseline year 2010. A number of scenarios encompassing eco-solutions on a technical level, changes in consumption pattern, behavioral changes, as well as the combination of all these aspects are run to estimate the Consumer Footprint related to household appliances for the year 2030, compared against this baseline scenario. The baseline Consumer Footprint is confirming the importance of the use phase in leading the impacts in almost all impact categories. Testing different scenarios concludes that there is a reduction of the impact for most of the categories (with up to 67% for the ozone depletion potential, and still around 35% for the global warming potential), while two of the here examined impact categories (i.e. land-use and mineral resource depletion) show an overall potential that is even negative – i.e. the results of all scenarios are higher than the ones of the 2010 baseline scenario. The increase in purchase and use of such appliances may offset energy efficiency benefits in some of the examined categories. Hence, the assessment of sustainability of appliances consumption should always include several scales, from the efficiency of the products (micro scale), to the improvement of the energy mix (meso scale), up to accounting for socio-economic drivers and patterns of consumption affecting the overall appliances stock (macro scale).