Verification of our previous definition of preferred earthquake nucleation areas in Kanto-Tokai, Japan

We have proposed that points of future initiation of rupture may be mapped, based on minima in local recurrence times, which are equivalent to local maxima in the probability for main shocks to occur. These minima are often controlled by anomalously low b-values (logN = a − bM). Of the Kanto-Tokai area, approximately 12% showed anomalously short recurrence times and was proposed as asperities, based on seismicity up to 1999. During the period 1999–2003.5, about 75% of the earthquakes with M ≥ 3.5 fell into the asperities, earlier defined (for example 19 out of 23 M ≥ 3.8 events). The probability for this to occur by chance is approximately 2 10^− 14. This supports our idea that the most likely volumes to produce main shocks may be mapped by minima in local recurrence times.     

Seismicity and stress evolution in heterogeneous faults with various degrees of roughness

We investigate the effects of the spatial distribution of stress drop ratios (SDRs) on the fault of an earthquake sequence as well as stress evolution. To achieve this, we test four fault models, each with its own SDRs which differ with regard to wavelength components (roughness) but which share first-order similarity and the same mean value. We assume rupture processes are quasi-static and fluid-controlled. The evidence clearly shows that the locations of large earthquakes are more sensitive to distribution than to the values of the SDRs. For this reason, it is expected that reducing fault roughness should increase the number of large earthquakes but decrease the number of small ones. It is also clearly apparent that a clustered distribution of large earthquakes should be more frequently observed on heterogeneous faults, especially in areas with small gradient values of the SDRs. These phenomena are consistent with our finding that long-wavelength components of stress usually develop in areas with low gradients of the SDRs. A fault with a smoother distribution of SDRs should, therefore, exhibit a greater likelihood to generate large earthquakes. By contrast, in that a rough fault covers a smaller area on which long-wavelengths can develop, it should result in fewer large earthquakes but a much more highly clustered distribution.     

A New Method for the Determination of Area-Averaged Turbulent Surface Fluxes from Low-Level Flights Using Inverse Models

The low-level flight method (LLF) has been combined with linear inverse models (IM) resulting in an LLF+IM method for the determination of area-averaged turbulent surface fluxes. With this combination, the vertical divergences of the turbulent latent and sensible heat fluxes were calculated from horizontal flights. The statistical errors of the derived turbulent surface fluxes were significantly reduced. The LLF+IM method was tested both in numerical and field experiments. Large-eddy simulations (LES) were performed to compare ‘true’ flux profiles with ‘measurements’ of simulated flights in an idealised convective boundary layer. Small differences between the ‘true’ and the ‘measured’ fluxes were found, but the vertical flux divergences were correctly calculated by the LLF+IM method. The LLF+IM method was then applied to data collected during two flights with the Helipod, a turbulence probe carried by a helicopter, and with the research aircraft Do 128 in the LITFASS-98 field campaign. The derived surface fluxes were compared with results from eddy-covariance surface stations and with large-aperture scintillometer data. The comparison showed that the LLF+IM method worked well for the sensible heat flux at 77 and 200 m flight levels, and also for the latent heat flux at the lowest level. The model quality control indicated failures for the latent heat flux at the 200 m level (and higher), which were probably due to large moisture fluctuations that could not be modelled using linear assumptions. Finally the LLF+IM method was applied to more than twenty low-level flights from the LITFASS-2003 experiment. Comparison with aggregated surface flux data revealed good agreement for the sensible heat flux but larger discrepancies and a higher statistical uncertainty for the latent heat flux     

Temperature–Humidity Dissimilarity and Heat-to-water-vapour Transport Efficiency Above and Within a Pine Forest Canopy: the Role of the Bowen Ratio

Over the past 15 years atmospheric surface-layer experiments over heterogeneous canopies have shown that the vertical transfer of sensible heat and water vapour exhibit a strong dissimilarity. In particular, the sensible-heat-to-water-vapour transport efficiencies generally exceed unity. One of the main consequences is that evaporation (latent heat flux) computed by the flux-variance method is overestimated, as persistently demonstrated by comparisons with evaporation obtained with the eddy-correlation method. Various authors proposed to take into account the temperature–humidity dissimilarity to extend the applicability of the flux-variance method in order to compute evaporation from non-uniform surfaces. They attempted to connect the sensible-heat-to-water-vapour transport efficiency (λ) to the correlation coefficient between temperature and humidity turbulent fluctuations (R _Tq ). This approach was found to be successful over ‘wet’ surfaces for which λ can be approximated by R _Tq and ‘dry’ surfaces for which λ can be approximated by 1/R _Tq . However, no solution has been proposed until now for intermediate hydrological conditions. We investigated this question using eddy-correlation measurements above and inside a pine forest canopy. For both levels, our data present a strong likeness with previously published results over heterogeneous surfaces. In particular, they confirm that λ is R _Tq in wet conditions and 1/R _Tq in dry conditions. Moreover, we defined the range of the Bowen ratio (Bo) values for which those two approximations are valid (below 0.1 and greater than 1, respectively) and established a relationship between λ, R _Tq and Bo for the intermediate range of Bo. We are confident that this new parameterization will enlarge the applicability of the flux-variance method to all kinds of heterogeneous surfaces in various hydrological conditions     

Landscape Roughness Parameters for Sherwood Forest – Experimental Results

The aim of this work is to present experimentally evaluated effective roughnesses (zoe) of a partly forested landscape. Although the ratio of boundary-layer height to obstacle size was only of the order of 50, there still seemed to exist a height range of 75–200 m where surface-layer similarity was approximately valid. Attempts were made to use conventional wind profile analysis to evaluate zoe, but the small height range and the large number of variables initially led to unacceptable uncertainties. Fixing the displacement height zd, rather than fitting it, reduced the data scatter to an acceptable level. The profile-derived roughness lengths zop obtained in this way were in good agreement with previous work, and with an alternative roughness length estimate zof for which flux-derived profile parameters u* and * were used. This implies that the profile-derived roughnesses were consistent with the measured surface-layer momentum flux. Comparison of both roughness estimates also yielded an improved estimate of the displacement height. Besides this, the authors tested a landscape roughness evaluation method which makes use of the gustiness parameter Tu = u/U in the surface layer. The results obtained by this method were in fair agreement with the profile-derived data. In previous work, the gustiness method was advocated because it could be used at relatively low levels, perhaps even within the roughness sub-layer. At the present measuring site, this was not the case as the gustiness method was only valid in an approximate way, and for a limited height range.     

Mechanical model of precursory source proces for strong earthquakes in western Yun－nanarea——conceptandnumericalsimula┐tion

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震源成核过程研究综述

大地震相应于断裂的快速传播。震源核是启动这个快速传播的断裂的动态体（或动态过程）。这个动态体或动态过程可以是震源端部的传播速度由慢渐快的裂缝，其内可有静态的或动态的应力化学腐蚀过程。可以是大震震源断层预滑时某处的突然快速失稳区，也可以是震源断层面上某一部分在临震前物性变弱而在其端部产生应力集中的一个动态体；另外，还可以是深部高压高温流体强迫插入积累巨大弹性应变能的地段的动态体。以上这些动态体或动态     

1976年云南龙陵7．4级地震序列分析

地震成核是地震孕育过程中的一个至关重要的阶段，加速是成核过程的一个属性，也是地震失稳破裂的一个必要条件．地震加速释放是成核在脆性层中的大地震的普遍前兆，且可将该加速过程简要地概括为地震释放速率正比于失稳破裂剩余时间的负幂．基于这一原理，对１９７６年５月２９日云南龙陵Ｍ_ｓ７．４级地震序列进行回顾性分析，表明主震及后续显著地震的失稳破裂时间和震级可成功地被估算，但要求所测系数ｒ^２     

On the effect of the chemical composition of atmospheric aerosol particles on nucleation scavenging and the formation of a cloud interstitial aerosol

Nucleation scavenging and the formation of a cloud interstitial aerosol (CIA) were theoretically studied in terms of the chemical composition of atmospheric aerosol particles. For this study, we used our air-parcel cloud model, which includes the entrainment of air and detailed microphysics, for determining the growth and interaction of aerosol particles and drops. Maritime and remote continental aerosol particle spectrums were used whose size distributions were superpositions of three log-normal distributions, each of a prescribed chemical composition. Our results show (1) that the CIA exhibits a size distribution with a distinctive cut-off at a specific radius of the dry as well as of the wet particle size distribution. All particles above this limiting size become activated to cloud drops and, thus, are not present in the CIA spectrum. This limiting size was found to be independent of the chemical composition of the particles and only dependent on the prevailing supersaturation. Below this specific size, the CIA spectrum becomes depleted of dry aerosol particles in a manner which does depend on their chemical composition and on the supersaturation in the air. (2) The number of aerosol particles nucleated to cloud drops depends critically on the chemical composition of the particles and on the prevailing supersaturation.     

Growth of homogeneously nucleated water droplets: a quantitative comparison of experiment and theory

The formation of aerosols proceeds through nucleation, growth and aging stages. The understanding of nucleation and droplet growth is essential for handling the more complex atmospheric condensation processes. To achieve this goal, measurements of the nucleation rate of various systems are performed in an expansion chamber. In this manner nucleation and growth are decoupled by applying a short nucleation pulse of about 1 ms during which the nuclei are formed. The subsequent droplet growth is quantitatively monitored by Mie-scattering. To this end, the Mie-maxima and -minima are detected as a function of time and compared to theoretical Mie-scattering calculations for increasing radii. In this fashion, a wealth of growth curves for pure water depending on supersaturations, number densities of droplets, and temperatures were obtained. Following the approach of Fuchs and Sutugin [Fuchs, N.A., Sutugin, A.G., 1970. Highly Dispersed Aerosols. Ann Arbor Science Publishers, Ann Arbor; Fuchs, N.A., Sutugin, A.G., 1971. In: Hidy, G.M., Brock, J.R. (Eds.), International Reviews in Aerosol Physics and Chemistry: Topics in Current Aerosol Research (Part 2), Pergamon, New York, p. 1], we calculated theoretical growth curves taking into account the depletion of water vapor, the increase of droplet- and system-temperature, temperature-dependent functions of the diffusion coefficient, surface tension, liquid density and latent heat of condensation. The calculated growth curves and experimental data for 230, 240 and 250 K with number densities of droplets between 5×10² and 2×10⁶ droplets/cm³ yield quantitative agreement between theory and experiment. This is remarkable in so far as the theory contains no adjustable parameters and assumes the sticking probability of the vapor molecules to be unity. Using a sticking probability smaller than 0.8 in the calculation leads to growth functions already outside the experimental error.