2014年7月大气环流和天气分析

提2014年7月环流特征如下：北半球高纬地区为单一极涡,中高纬地区呈5波型分布,巴尔喀什湖附近低槽和东亚大槽强度均较常年偏强;西北太平洋副热带高压带呈东西带状分布,强度与常年同期相当。7月全国平均降水量115．0 mm,较常年同期（120．6 mm）偏少4．6％;全国平均气温为22．3℃,较常年同期（21．9℃）偏高0．4℃。月内共出现8次强降水过程,多站出现极端日降水量。7月共有5个热带气旋（风力8级以上）在西北太平洋和南海活动,生成个数较常年偏多,并有“威马逊”、“麦德姆”2个热带气旋登陆。华南、江南等地出现持续高温天气,全国87个气象观测站发生极端高温事件,74站发生极端日降水量事件。     

Quantifying the Response Strength of the Southern Stratospheric Polar Vortex to Indian Ocean Warming in Austral Summer简

A previous multiple-AGCM study suggested that Indian Ocean Warming （IOW） tends to warm and weaken the southern polar vortex.Such an impact is robust because of a qualitative consistency among the five AGCMs used.However,a significant difference exists in the modeled strengths,particularly in the stratosphere,with those in three of the AGCMs （CCM3,CAM3,and GFS） being four to five times as strong as those in the two other models （GFDL AM2,ECHAM5）.As to which case reflects reality is an important issue not only for quantifying the role of tropical ocean warming in the recent modest recovery of the ozone hole over the Antarctic,but also for projecting its future trend.This issue is addressed in the present study through comparing the models＇ climatological mean states and intrinsic variability,particularly those influencing tropospheric signals to propagate upward and reach the stratosphere.The results suggest that differences in intrinsic variability of model atmospheres provide implications for the difference.Based on a comparison with observations,it is speculated that the impact in the real world may be closer to the modest one simulated by GFDL AM2 and ECHAM5,rather than the strong one simulated by the three other models （CCM3,CAM3 and GFS）.In particular,IOW during the past 50 years may have dynamically induced a 1.0℃ warming in the polar lower stratosphere （～100 hPa）,which canceled a fraction of radiative cooling due to ozone depletion.     

Trends in Canadian Short‐Duration Extreme Rainfall: Including an Intensity–Duration–Frequency Perspective

Short-duration (5 minutes to 24 hours) rainfall extremes are important for a number of purposes, including engineering infrastructure design, because they represent the different meteorological scales of extreme rainfall events. Both single location and regional analyses of the changes in short-duration extreme rainfall amounts across Canada, as observed by tipping bucket rain gauges from 1965 to 2005, are presented. The single station analysis shows a general lack of a detectable trend signal, at the 5% significance level, because of the large variability and the relatively short period of record of the extreme short-duration rainfall amounts. The single station 30-minute to 24-hour durations show that, on average, 4% of the total number of stations have statistically significant increasing amounts of rainfall, whereas 1.6% of the cases have significantly decreasing amounts. However, regional spatial patterns are apparent in the single station trend results. Thus, for the same durations regional trends are presented by grouping the single station trend statistics across Canada. This regional trend analysis shows that at least two-thirds of the regions across Canada have increasing trends in extreme rainfall amounts, with up to 33% being significant (depending on location and duration). Both the southwest and the east (Newfoundland) coastal regions generally show significant increasing regional trends for 1- and 2-hour extreme rainfall durations. For the shortest durations of 5–15 minutes, the general overall regional trends in the extreme amounts are more variable, with increasing and decreasing trends occurring with similar frequency; however, there is no evidence of statistically significant decreasing regional trends in extreme rainfall amounts. The decreasing regional trends for the 5- to 15-minute duration amounts tend to be located in the St. Lawrence region of southern Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces. Additional analysis using criteria specified for traditional water management practice (e.g., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF)) shows that fewer than 5.6% and 3.4% of the stations have significant increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, in extreme annual maximum single location observation amounts. This indicates that at most locations across Canada the traditional single station IDF assumption that historical extreme rainfall observations are stationary (in terms of the mean) over the period of record for an individual station is not violated. However, the trend information is still useful complementary information that can be considered for water management purposes, especially in terms of regional analysis.     

2010年6月中国南方持续性强降水过程：天气系统演变和青藏高原热力作用的影响

2010年6月中国南方发生持续性强降水,其强度与2008年6月相当,超过近年来其他年份。但是,与2008年6月相比,2010年6月对流层中低层低值系统活动在青藏高原至长江中下游地区异常频繁,副热带高压(副高)位置异常偏西、强度偏强,导致低层异常风场辐合区及强降水区域相对偏北。分析2010年6月14—24日中国南方连续出现的4次持续性强降水过程,发现南亚高压、对流层中层的中纬度槽脊和西太平洋副高以及低层切变线和东移低涡是造成持续性强降水的主要天气系统。利用WRF模式对2010年6月强降水过程实施显式对流集合模拟试验,在控制试验重现观测到的地面降水和天气系统特征的基础上,在敏感性试验中将青藏高原的地表短波反照率修改为1.0,对比两组模拟试验的结果表明:控制试验中青藏高原的地表感热加热作用使得高原及其周边地区的大气温度发生变化,相应的热成风平衡调整使得对流层低层至高层大气环流和天气系统特征发生显著变化,增强了中国南方的持续性降水。200 hPa青藏高原西部形成反气旋性环流异常,东部形成气旋性环流异常,青藏高原东部南下的冷空气加强,中国南方辐散增强;500 hPa青藏高原北部的脊加强,中国东部的槽加深,副高西北侧的西南风明显增强,从青藏高原向下游传播的正涡度也显著加强;850 hPa的低涡强烈发展并逐步东移,华南沿海的西南低空急流更为强盛,导致降水区的水汽辐合、上升运动及降水强度都增强。     

Progress in Studies of the Precipitation Diurnal Variation over Contiguous China

This paper summarizes the recent progress in studies of the diurnal variation of precipitation over con- tiguous China. The main results are as follows. （1） The rainfall diurnal variation over contiguous China presents distinct regional features. In summer, precipitation peaks in the late afternoon over the south- ern inland China and northeastern China, while it peaks around midnight over southwestern China. In the upper and middle reaches of Yangtze River valley, precipitation occurs mostly in the early morning. Summer precipitation over the central eastern China （most regions of the Tibetan Plateau） has two diurnal peaks, i.e., one in the early morning （midnight） and the other in the late afternoon. （2） The rainfall diurnal variation experiences obvious seasonal and sub-seasonal evolutions. In cold seasons, the regional contrast of rainfall diurnal peaks decreases, with an early morning maximum over most of the southern China. Over the central eastern China, diurnal monsoon rainfall shows sub-seasonal variations with the movement of summer monsoon systems. The rainfall peak mainly occurs in the early morning （late afternoon） during the active （break） monsoon period. （3） Cloud properties and occurrence time of rainfall diurnal peaks are different for long- and short-duration rainfall events. Long-duration rainfall events are dominated by strat- iform precipitation, with the maximum surface rain rate and the highest profile occurring in the late night to early morning, while short-duration rainfall events are more related to convective precipitation, with the maximum surface rain rate and the highest profile occurring between the late afternoon and early night. （4） The rainfall diurnal variation is influenced by multi-scale mountain-valley and land-sea breezes as well as large-scale atmospheric circulation, and involves complicated formation and evolution of cloud and rainfall systems. The diurnal cycle of winds in the lower troposphere also contributes to the regional differences     

Surface rainfall and cloud budgets associated with mei-yu torrential rainfall over eastern China during June 2011

Surface rainfall and cloud budgets associated with three heavy rainfall events that occurred over eastern China during the mei-yu season in June 2011 were analyzed using 2D cumulus ensemble model simulation data.Model domain mean rainfall showed three peaks in response to three prescribed ascending motion maxima,primarily through the mean moisture convergence during the torrential rainfall period.Prescribed ascending motion throughout the troposphere produced strong convective rainfall during the first （9 June） and third （17-18 June） rainfall events,whereas strong prescribed ascending motion in the mid and upper troposphere and weak subsidence near the surface generated equally important stratiform and convective rainfall during the second rainfall event （14 June）.The analysis of surface rainfall budgets reveals that convective rainfall was associated with atmospheric drying during the first event and moisture convergence during the third event.Both stratiform and convective rainfall responded primarily to moisture convergence during the second event.An analysis of grid data shows that the first and third mean rainfall maxima had smaller horizontal scales of the precipitation system than the second.     

降雨条件下北川斜坡破坏的数值模拟

本文采用FLAC的两相流模式和修正的Mohr—Coulomb模型,对北川地区震后土在降雨条件下的位移和速度矢量进行了数值模拟和分析,同时在室内进行了降雨条件下斜坡破坏的模型实验。分析结果表明：土体在沿坡面的最大水平位移发生在坡脚处,土体水平位移是衡量斜坡破坏的首要指标,可采用坡面特征点的位移突变作为斜坡破坏的判别标准;数值模拟得到的斜坡破坏与降雨历时关系与室内模型实验结果吻合较好。     

考虑含砂量影响的砂-黏混合土应力-应变关系特性研究

将砂与黏土按不同比例干重量均匀混合制成砂-黏混合土,进行不排水三轴剪切试验,研究了含砂量和试验围压对混合土初始切线模量和应力-应变关系的影响,并对其作用机理进行了分析。研究结果表明:含砂量小于50%时,可以认为混合土初始切线模量与含砂量无关。含砂量大于50%小于80%时,初始切线模量随含砂量增加呈线性趋势增长。通过把含砂量参数引入到初始切线模量中对Duncan-Chang模型进行修正,使修正后的模型能够描述含砂量小于80%时混合土的应力-应变关系。当含砂量超过80%,混合土呈应变软化型,随含砂量的增加,初始切线模量逐渐保持稳定,应力-应变曲线峰值应变左移,可应用软化模型对其应力-应变关系进行描述。围压对混合土应力-应变关系有很大影响,在双对数坐标中,随试验围压的增大,初始切线模量呈线性趋势增长。     

粗粒土大三轴试验研究综述

自然界中广泛分布粗粒土,其具有压实密度大、良好透水性、抗剪强度高、沉降变形小、不易产生地震液化等优良的工程特性,已被广泛运用于土石坝工程建设中。本文在阅读大量参考文献的基础上概括和总结了粗粒土大三轴试验研究进展情况,包括抗剪强度、变形特性、应力-应变关系特性、试验中的若干问题,并结合已有认识,提出了笔者一些自己的思考,指出了今后关于粗粒土的研究方向。     

Cenozoic high-K alkaline magmatism and associated Cu–Mo–Au mineralization in the Jinping–Fan Si Pan region,southeastern Ailao Shan–Red River shear zone,southwestern China–northwestern Vietnam

The Jinping–Fan Si Pan (JFP) Cenozoic magmatic and Cu–Mo–Au metallogenic belt in the southeastern part of the Ailao Shan shear zone host the Tongchang, Chang′an, Habo, and Chinh Sang Cu–Mo–Au deposits. These deposits form an integrated epithermal-porphyry regional mineralization system associated with 40–32 Ma high-K alkaline magmatism. The magmatic rocks in the belt have relatively low TiO₂ (<0.73 wt%), P₂O₅ (<0.29 wt%), and FeO^* (<4.99 wt%), and high Na₂O (2.86–4.75 wt%) and K₂O (4.01–7.98 wt%). They also have high contents of incompatible trace elements, and are enriched in LILE (Rb, Ba, K, Sr) and LREE. They have marked Nb, Ta, Ti and P depletion in primitive mantle-normalized spidergrams, and plot close to the EMII mantle field in the Sr–Nd isotopic diagram. These characteristics are similar to those of the Eocene high-K alkaline rocks along the northern Ailao Shan belt, eastern Tibet plateau. The sulfur and lead isotope analyses of sulfide minerals from both the ores and related magmatic rocks confirm the involvement of a magmatic ore fluid. The Cenozoic alkaline intrusions and Cu–Mo–Au mineralization in the JFP were formed prior to the initiation of left-lateral shearing along the Ailao Shan shear zone. The magmas appear to have been derived from enriched mantle, possibly with mixing of materials from the buried Tethyan oceanic lithosphere, and/or crust.