Process identification at a slow‐moving landslide in the Vorarlberg Alps

A fine‐grained slope that exhibits slow movement rates was investigated to understand how geohydrological processes contribute to a consecutive development of mass movements in the Vorarlberg Alps, Austria. For that purpose intensive hydrometeorological, hydrogeological and geotechnical observations as well as surveying of surface movement rates were conducted during 1998–2001. Subsurface water dynamics at the creeping slope turned out to be dominated by a three‐dimensional pressure system. The pressure reaction is triggered by fast infiltration of surface water and subsequent lateral water flow in the south‐western part of the hillslope. The related pressure signal was shown to propagate further downhill, causing fast reactions of the piezometric head at 5·5 m depth on a daily time scale. The observed pressure reactions might belong to a temporary hillslope water body that extends further downhill. The related buoyancy forces could be one of the driving forces for the mass movement. A physically based hydrological model was adopted to model simultaneously surface and subsurface water dynamics including evapotranspiration and runoff production. It was possible to reproduce surface runoff and observed pressure reactions in principle. However, as soil hydraulic functions were only estimated on pedotransfer functions, a quantitative comparison between observed and simulated subsurface dynamics is not feasible. Nevertheless, the results suggest that it is possible to reconstruct important spatial structures based on sparse observations in the field which allow reasonable simulations with a physically based hydrological model. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Minor ions in the solar wind

Ions heavier than ⁴He are treated as “minors” in the solar wind. This is justified for many applications since minor ions have no significant influence on the dynamics of the interplanetary plasma. However, minor ions carry information on many aspects of the formation, on the acceleration and on the transfer of solar plasma from the corona into the interplanetary space. This review concentrates on various aspects of minor ions as diagnostic tracers. The elemental abundance patterns of the solar wind are shaped in the chromosphere and in the lower transition region by processes, which are not fully understood at this moment. Despite this lack of detailed understanding, observed abundance patterns have been classified and are now commonly used to characterize the sources, and to trace back solar-wind flows to their origins in the solar atmosphere. Furthermore, the solar wind is the most important source of information for solar isotopic abundances and for solar abundances of volatile elements. In order to fully exploit this information, a comprehensive understanding of elemental and isotopic fractionation processes is required. We provide observational clues to distinguish different processes at work.     

若尔盖等地风能资源评价

本文用平均风速和最大风速法对若尔盖等三地的韦伯分布参数k、c进行估算,并用韦伯分布计算风能的指标。计算表明:若尔盖、红原属风能可利用区,用风力发电是有利用价值的;阿坝属风能贫乏地区。     

A comparative study of extensive machine learning models for predicting long-term monthly rainfall with an ensemble of climatic and meteorological predictors

Rainfall prediction is of vital importance in water resources management. Accurate long-term rainfall prediction remains an open and challenging problem. Machine learning techniques, as an increasingly popular approach, provide an attractive alternative to traditional methods. The main objective of this study was to improve the prediction accuracy of machine learning-based methods for monthly rainfall, and to improve the understanding of the role of large-scale climatic variables and local meteorological variables in rainfall prediction. One regression model autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and five state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural networks, support vector machine, random forest (RF), gradient boosting regression, and dual-stage attention-based recurrent neural network, were implemented for monthly rainfall prediction over 25 stations in the East China region. The results showed that the ML models outperformed ARIMA model, and RF relatively outperformed other models. Local meteorological variables, humidity, and sunshine duration, were the most important predictors in improving prediction accuracy. 4-month lagged Western North Pacific Monsoon had higher importance than other large-scale climatic variables. The overall output of rainfall prediction was scalable and could be readily generalized to other regions.     

Application of linear and nonlinear techniques in river flow forecasting in the Kilombero River basin,Tanzania / Application de techniques linéaires et non-linéaires à la prévision des débits dans le bassin de la Rivière Kilombero,en Tanzanie

Abstract

Modelling of the rainfall–runoff transformation process and routing of river flows in the Kilombero River basin and its five sub-catchments within the Rufiji River basin in Tanzania was undertaken using three system (black-box) models—a simple linear model, a linear perturbation model and a linear varying gain factor model—in their linear transfer function forms. A lumped conceptual model—the soil moisture accounting and routing model—was also applied to the sub-catchments and the basin. The HEC-HMS model, which is a distributed model, was applied only to the entire Kilombero River basin. River discharge, rainfall and potential evaporation data were used as inputs to the appropriate models and it was observed that sometimes the system models performed better than complex hydrological models, especially in large catchments, illustrating the usefulness of using simple black-box models in datascarce situations.     

A proposed structure–groundwater model: application to chalky media of the Paris Basin

The groundwater flow in a fissured chalky environment at the northern border of the Paris Basin depends on several geological and hydrogeological parameters. Although the studied sector of the basin presents a homogeneous rock type, it is affected by a fracture network. In this type of environment, in which the permeability is low, the groundwater flow displays significant disruption, which is localized in the Fruges region (northern France). The interconnection of the discontinuities (network of fault and/or joints) is reliant on the structural control of groundwater flow through increases in the hydraulic connection between the unsaturated and the saturated zone. The methodology developed herein makes use of microstructural and regional analysis of the fracture patterns, and allowed consideration of the piezometric variations of the chalk aquifer during periods of low and high groundwater levels (April and October 2001) and a diagraphic representation of the estimated physical parameters (electrical resistivity). This enabled us to construct a ‘flow structure’ conceptual model in which we identify two types of faults: tight walls and flow paths that control the piezometric heads and the flow rate. Model validation was carried out on a similar sector. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Heavy metal pollution of coastal river sediments, north-eastern New South Wales, Australia: lead isotope and chemical evidence

 Heavy metal and metalloid concentrations within stream-estuary sediments (<180-μm size fraction) in north-eastern New South Wales largely represent natural background values. However, element concentrations (Ag, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sb, Zn) of Hunter River sediments within the heavily industrialized and urbanized Newcastle region exceed upstream background values by up to one order of magnitude. High element concentrations have been found within sediments of the Newcastle Harbour and Throsby Creek which drains into urbanized and light industry areas. Observed Pb enrichments and low ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ratios are likely caused by atmospheric deposition of Pb additives from petrol and subsequent Pb transport by road run-off waters into the local drainage system. Sediments of the Richmond River and lower Manning, Macleay, Clarence, Brunswick and Tweed River generally display no evidence for anthropogenic heavy metal and metalloid contamination (Ag, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sb, Zn). However, the rivers and their tributaries possess localized sedimentary traps with elevated heavy metal concentrations (Cu, Pb, Zn). Lead isotope data indicate that anthropogenic Pb provides a detectable contribution to investigated sediments. Such contributions are evident at sample sites close to sewage outlets and in the vicinity of the Pacific Highway. In addition, As concentrations of Richmond River sediments gradually increase downstream. This geochemical trend may be the result of As mobilization from numerous cattle-dip sites within the region into the drainage system and subsequent accumulation of As in downstream river and estuary sediments. Received: 5 September 1997 · Accepted: 4 November 1997     

Hydroclimatic teleconnection between global sea surface temperature and rainfall over India at subdivisional monthly scale

It is well established that sea surface temperature (SST) plays a significant role in the hydrologic cycle in which precipitation is the most important part. In this study, the influence of SST on Indian subdivisional monthly rainfall is investigated. Both spatial and temporal influences are investigated. The most influencing regions of sea surface are identified for different subdivisions and for different overlapping seasons in the year. The relative importance of SST, land surface temperature (LST) and ocean–land temperature contrast (OLTC) and their variation from subdivision to subdivision and from season to season are also studied. It is observed that LST does not show much similarity with rainfall series, but, in general, OLTC shows relatively higher influence in the pre‐monsoon and early monsoon periods, whereas SST plays a more important role in late‐ and post‐monsoon periods. The influence of OLTC is seen to be mostly confined to the Indian Ocean region, whereas the effect of SST indicates the climatic teleconnection between Indian regional rainfall and climate indices in Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

First‐year post‐fire erosion rates in Bitterroot National Forest,Montana

Accelerated runoff and erosion commonly occur following forest fires due to combustion of protective forest floor material, which results in bare soil being exposed to overland flow and raindrop impact, as well as water repellent soil conditions. After the 2000 Valley Complex Fires in the Bitterroot National Forest of west‐central Montana, four sets of six hillslope plots were established to measure first‐year post‐wildfire erosion rates on steep slopes (greater than 50%) that had burned with high severity. Silt fences were installed at the base of each plot to trap eroded sediment from a contributing area of 100 m². Rain gauges were installed to correlate rain event characteristics to the event sediment yield. After each sediment‐producing rain event, the collected sediment was removed from the silt fence and weighed on site, and a sub‐sample taken to determine dry weight, particle size distribution, organic matter content, and nutrient content of the eroded material. Rainfall intensity was the only significant factor in determining post‐fire erosion rates from individual storm events. Short duration, high intensity thunderstorms with a maximum 10‐min rainfall intensity of 75 mm h^?1 caused the highest erosion rates (greater than 20 t ha^?1). Long duration, low intensity rains produced little erosion (less than 0·01 t ha^?1). Total C and N in the collected sediment varied directly with the organic matter; because the collected sediment was mostly mineral soil, the C and N content was small. Minimal amounts of Mg, Ca, and K were detected in the eroded sediments. The mean annual erosion rate predicted by Disturbed WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) was 15% less than the mean annual erosion rate measured, which is within the accuracy range of the model. Published in 2007 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Storm‐event rainfall–runoff modelling approach for ungauged sites in Taiwan

This work develops a top‐down modelling approach for storm‐event rainfall–runoff model calibration at unmeasured sites in Taiwan. Twenty‐six storm events occurring in seven sub‐catchments in the Kao‐Ping River provided the analytical data set. Regional formulas for three important features of a streamflow hydrograph, i.e. time to peak, peak flow, and total runoff volume, were developed via the characteristics of storm event and catchment using multivariate regression analysis. Validation of the regional formulas demonstrates that they reasonably predict the three features of a streamflow hydrograph at ungauged sites. All of the sub‐catchments in the study area were then adopted as ungauged areas, and the three streamflow hydrograph features were calculated by the regional formulas and substituted into the fuzzy multi‐objective function for rainfall–runoff model calibration. Calibration results show that the proposed approach can effectively simulate the streamflow hydrographs at the ungauged sites. The simulated hydrographs more closely resemble observed hydrographs than hydrographs synthesized using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) dimensionless unit hydrograph method, a conventional method for hydrograph estimation at ungauged sites in Taiwan. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.