暴雨云团的卫星监测和研究进展

该文对卫星监测、分析和研究暴雨云团的国内外若干研究结果和进展给予了简要综述。主要涉及卫星遥感监测和分析暴雨云团的适宜尺度, 中尺度对流复合体, 东亚梅雨锋暴雨云团的监测和分析, 卫星资料同化和数值模拟及问题与展望等方面的内容。     

华北盛夏旱涝的环流型特征及其在初夏的预兆

文中应用NCEP/NCAR 500 hPa逐日资料对影响华北盛夏旱涝的环流特征进行分析,给出了盛夏旱涝分别与“西高东低”和“东高西低”流型的对应关系。并进一步研究初夏与盛夏的环流演变特征,得知若在6月500 hPa华北出现异常增高过程时,则盛夏多出现“西高东低”流型,华北少雨;反之,6月华北出现异常低压过程时,盛夏多出现“东高西低”流型,华北多雨。6月华北高压区环流特征与盛夏的环流型相关系数达0.597,与华北中部盛夏降水相关系数为0.562,为初夏进行盛夏旱涝短期气候预测提供了依据。以此为根据建立了初夏对于天津盛夏降水短期气候预测的经验方法,在2002—2004年的业务应用中预报趋势都是正确的。     

高原低涡移出高原的观测事实分析

应用天气学、统计学原理,结合TRMM资料,分析了1998—2004年5—9月移出高原的低涡的活动特征。结果指出:6—8月是高原低涡移出高原影响中国东部天气的主要时段,它与高原低涡在高原上的活动特征及西南低涡移出高原特征均不同;移出高原的高原低涡的涡源主要在曲麻莱附近、德格附近,这与高原上产生低涡的涡源不同;移出高原的高原低涡的移动路径多数是随低槽的活动而向东、向东南移动,这与高原低涡在高原上多数是沿切变线移向东北不同,高原低涡移出高原后,不仅影响中国的范围广,还可能影响到朝鲜半岛、日本;高原低涡移出高原后涡的强度、性质会有变化,在高原以东活动时间长(≥36 h)的高原低涡,移出高原前多数为暖性低涡,移出高原后多数为斜压性低涡,低涡加强、多数可产生暴雨、大暴雨;高原低涡移出高原后移到海洋上,往往因下垫面不同而变化,出海后都有降水加强、多数位势高度下降的现象;移出高原后的高原低涡因东面海上热带气旋活动而少动,与其南面热带气旋活动相向而行,因季风低压少动而少动的现象。     

近40 a石河子地区气候暖湿化特征分析

分析了40 a气温、降水及干旱指数的变化特征,结果表明:(1)近40 a石河子地区平均温度以0.3℃/10 a趋势上升,和全疆变化一致;该地区年、冬季、夏季气温总体呈上升趋势,20世纪60~70年代年、冬季、夏季气温呈降低的趋势,80~90年代气温呈增加趋势,80年代冬季升温比夏季升温明显,而90年代夏季升温比冬季明显。(2)降水总体趋势上升,降水增长率为12.5 mm/10 a,90年代平均降水比30 a均值偏多20.8%。(3)年平均干旱指数总体呈下降趋势,但趋势不明显,其减少率为-0.3/10 a。(4)石河子地区的温度、降水及干旱指数用M ann-kendall方法检验分别在不同年份发生了不同程度的突变。结果指出,石河子地区气候正在趋于暖、湿化,这对于本区绿洲的发展具有有利的一面。     

中国人工增雨研究进展

随着全球气候变暖的加剧,水资源短缺问题表现得越来越突出,如何有效地开发利用空中水资源已成为人们关注的热点问题之一。本文回顾了人工增雨的发展历史,概述了当今国内外人工增雨的发展状况,归纳了各地区云状、积云特征、液态含水量、冰晶浓度等云物理特征,并在此基础上对我国各地区尤其是西北地区的增雨潜力进行了分析,最后归纳总结了人工增雨的常用手段、经验和检验人工增雨效果的方法。     

Further Study on Identifying Anomalous Large-Scale Rainfall Regimes in Phase Space

Using a 40-yr daily precipitation dataset including 134 stations from 1962 to 2001, the large-scale distribution patterns of precipitation anomalies over East China are investigated in the present paper. In the phase space spanned by the first 8 EOFs generated from the 20-day low-pass filtered data, the six rainfall regimes (RRs) are identified by applying a cluster analysis method, namely, the northeastern China regime, Yellow River regime, Qinling Mountain-Huaihe River regime, Yangtze River with its south regime, South China regime, and rainless regime. Analyses show that the new RRs exhibit good persistence and evident physical sense, and excellently represent both of countrywide and regional features, which also demonstrate the inhomogeneity of multi-dimensional phase space. Furthermore, it is more important that the new RRs can describe intraseasonal dynamic characteristics of large-scale rainfall anomalies, which is the most significant difference between the new RRs and the conventional seasonal mean rainfall patterns. On the other hand, the climatic characteristics of daily distributions of the RRs events, as well as the 40-year panorama of the RRs occurring are also investigated, which further document rationality and objectivity of the RRs with intraseasonal variability, and are likely to present more helpful information for short-term climate prediction, compared with other previous classical rainfall patterns.     

THE ENERGETIC AGGREGATION AND RESLEASE IN THE HEAVY RAIN REGION

Using the new formula of moist available energy (MAE), the value of the MAE’s key terms of three heavy rainfall cases in Guangdong province in 1998 was calculated. The energetic aggregation and energetic discharge are analyzed. It shows that the value of the key terms in the formula appears different feature clearly in the different precipitation period, as well as the function of each term presents in the heavy rain region.     

THE VARIATION OF THE SPRING PRECIPITATION IN GUANGZHOU AND ITS PRECURSORY SIGNALS

Guangzhou spring rainfall mainly exhibits interannual variation of Quasi-biannual and interdecadal variation of 30 yrs, and is in the period of weak rainfall at interdecadal time scale. SST anomalies (SSTA) of Nino3 are the strongest precursor of Guangzhou spring rainfall. They have significant positive correlation from previous November and persist stably to April. Nino3 SSTA in the previous winter affects Guangzhou spring rainfall through North Pacific subtropical high and low wind in spring. When Nino3 SSTA is positive in the previous winter, spring subtropical high is intense and westward, South China is located in the area of ascending airflow at the edge of the subtropical high, and water vapor transporting to South China is intensified by anticyclone circulation to the east of the Philippines. So Guangzhou spring rainfall is heavy. When Nino3 SSTA is negative, the subtropical high is weak and eastward, South China is far away from the subtropical high and is located in the area of descending airflow, and water vapor transporting to South China is weak because low-level cyclonic circulation controls areas to the east of the Philippines and north wind prevails in South China. So Guangzhou spring rainfall is weak and spring drought is resulted.     

云南冷锋切变型暴雨的中尺度特征分析

利用T106数值预报产品资料，通过中尺度滤波方法，提取云南冷锋切变型暴雨过程中的中尺度降水系统，对其有关物理量的特征及演变进行了分析。研究发现，通过中尺度滤波方法，可以从常规的数值预报产品资料中有效分离出直接导致暴雨的中尺度天气系统，通过对这些中尺度系统的分析及追踪，可以为暴雨预报提供更为客观的预报依据；水汽的强辐合时段与暴雨降落时段有较好的对应关系，暴雨落区比水汽的强辐合区域要稍偏向于水汽输送的下游方向；在该型暴雨的发生过程中，北部冷平流具有十分重要的作用，但南部暖平流的作用也不可忽视。     

密肋复合墙体非线性数值分析及抗剪承载力研究

结合课题组前期的研究成果,通过对墙体中不同材料的本构模型、墙体中裂缝、多种材料的联结以及墙体边界条件的研究与探讨,运用通用有限元程序ANSYS对密肋复合墙体进行非线性有限元分析;并在试验结果与有限元模拟的基础上,依据极限平衡理论,建立起来复合墙体的斜截面抗剪极限承载力公式。理论分析与试验研究表明:复合墙体非线性有限元模型能够较好地模拟墙体内力和变形发展的全过程,描述裂缝的形成和扩展,对于实际工程和科学研究具有足够的精度;墙体斜截面抗剪承载力公式与实测值吻合较好,具有一定的精度,满足工程设计需要。