Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.     

金沙江干热河谷区土壤侵蚀危险度评价——以云南元谋为例

利用空间主成分分析方法，选取降水、坡度、植被、土地利用、土壤类型、人口、高程等作为评价指标，建立空间主成分评价模型Pi=0．78X1＋0．06X2＋0．05X3＋0．04X4，将研究区分为无险型、轻险型、危险型、强险型和极险型五种类型，较为准确地得到了危险度综合评价结果。因此，空间主成分分析模型，在土壤侵蚀危险程度评价方面的应用较为成功，是一种科学有效的研究方法。     

森林碳汇决策与农村可持续发展研究(英文)

认为有必要在基于碳汇的土地利用和当地可持续发展之间建立一种更加明确的联系.依托一个中国-加拿大合作项目,以中国贵州省黎平县为例,阐述了一种将森林碳汇、森林资源管理以及如何促进当地可持续发展联系起来的综合评估方法,并且着重介绍了能帮助资源管理和规划部门实施这种综合评估的土地利用决策支持工具(LUDST) .     

Climatic characteristics of summer high temperature and assessment methods in the large cities of North China

Based on the high temperature data of June to August in 1961-2000 in North China, the high temperature weather processes are investigated, and a more complete data set for severe high temperature processes is created. The climatic characteristics of adverse high temperature weather in Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Jinan and Taiyuan are analyzed respectively. The major features of the East-Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High are discussed. The outcomes indicate that the influence of both East Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High on these weather events varies, by a larger margin, from one city to another over North China and they are also closely related to the relative humidity. It is found that the behaviours of East-Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High are the major important systems that give rise to the summer high temperature weather over the region. Based on these findings, the 5-day, 10-day and monthly assessment models for such high impact events have been developed. The assessment outcomes prove to be useful in assessing severe high-temperature events in major cities of North China.     

森林碳汇决策与农村可持续发展研究

认为有必要在基于碳汇的土地利用和当地可持续发展之间建立一种更加明确的联系．依托一个中国-加拿大合作项目，以中国贵州省黎平县为例，阐述了一种将森林碳汇、森林资源管理以及如何促进当地可持续发展联系起来的综合评估方法，并且着重介绍了能帮助资源管理和规划部门实施这种综合评估的土地利用决策支持工具（LUDST）．     

Arsenic, antimony and other toxic elements in the drinking water of Eastern Thessaly in Greece and its possible effects on human health

Twenty-six groundwater samples were collected from the Eastern Thessaly region and analysed by ICP-ES for these elements: Al, As, P, Pb, Zn, Mn, Fe, Cr, Sb, Cu, Na, Br, Cl, Si, Mg, Ag, Be, Bi, Dy, Er, Eu, Au, Ge, Ho, In, Ir, Os, Pt, Re, Rh, Ru, Lu, Hf, Hg, Tm, Zr and Nb. The objectives of the study were to assess the level of water contamination with respect to the EC and the USEPA health-based drinking water criteria. The geology of the studied area includes schists, amphibolites, marbles of Palaeozoic age, ophiolites, limestones of Triassic and Cretaceous age, Neogene and Quaternary deposits. The element ranges for groundwater samples are: Al 7–56 μg l⁻¹, As 1–125 μg l⁻¹, Br 6–60 μg l⁻¹, Cl 500–25,000 μg l⁻¹, Cr 1–6 μg l⁻¹, Cu 1–15 μg l⁻¹, Fe 10–352 μg l⁻¹, Mg 2,940–40,100 μg l⁻¹, Mn 0–8 μg l⁻¹, Na 3,650–13,740 μg l⁻¹, P 20–48 μg l⁻¹, Pb 0–7 μg l⁻¹, Sb 0–21 μg l⁻¹, Si 3,310–13,240 μg l⁻¹ and Zn 7–994 μg l⁻¹. The results of groundwater analyses from the region of Eastern Thessaly showed elevated concentrations of As and Sb. Factor analysis explained 77.8% of the total variance of the data through five factors. Concentration of Br, Cl, Mg, Na and Si is directly related to the presence of saltwater in the aquifer, so grouping of these variables in factor 1 probably reflects the seawater intrusion. Al, As and Sb are known to form complexes in the environment, so grouping of these elements in factor 2 indicates their similar geochemical behaviour in the environment. The high negative loading of Mn in factor 2 indicates the presence of manganese oxides–hydroxides in the study area. Pb and Zn are associated together in sulphide mineralisation; so grouping of these elements in factor 3 reflects the sulphide mineralization paragenesis in the Melivoia area. P and Cu are associated together in phosphate fertilizers; so grouping of these variables in factor 4 could be related to agricultural practices. Cr, Fe, Mn and Mg are associated together in iron and manganese oxides–hydroxides and the weathering products of the olivine of the ultrabasic rocks; so grouping of these elements in factor 5 reflects the lithology of the area. There is a natural contamination of groundwaters with elevated concentrations of As and Sb due to the presence of the arsenopyrite and stibnite mineralisation in the Melivoia, Sotiritsa and Ano Polydendri areas. Contamination over the health-based drinking water guidelines given by EC and EPA has been investigated from nine sampling sites out of 26 of Eastern Thessaly region.     

Environmental and health risk assessment in abandoned mining area, Zlata Idka, Slovakia

The Zlata Idka village is a typical mountainous settlement. As a consequence of more than 500 years of mining activity, its environment has been extensively affected by pollution from potentially toxic elements. This paper presents the results of an environmental-geochemical and health research in the Zlata Idka village, Slovakia. Geochemical analysis indicates that arsenic (As) and antimony (Sb) are enriched in soils, groundwater, surface water and stream sediments. The average As and Sb contents are 892 mg/kg and 818 mg/kg in soils, 195 mg/kg and 249 mg/kg in stream sediments, 0.028 mg/l and 0.021 mg/l in groundwater and 0.024 mg/l and 0.034 mg/l in surface water. Arsenic and Sb concentrations exceed upper permissible limits in locally grown vegetables. Within the epidemiological research the As and Sb contents in human tissues and fluids have been observed (blood, urine, nails and hair) in approximately one third of the village’s population (120 respondents). The average As and Sb concentrations were 16.3 μg/l and 3.8 μg/l in blood, 15.8 μg/l and 18.8 μg/l in urine, 3,179 μg/kg and 1,140 μg/kg in nails and 379 μg/kg and 357 μg/kg in hair. These concentrations are comparatively much higher than the average population. Health risk calculations for the ingestion of soil, water, and vegetables indicates a very high carcinogenic risk (>1/1,000) for as content in soil and water. The hazard quotient [HQ=average daily dose (ADD)/reference dose (RfD)] calculation method indicates a HQ>1 for groundwater As and Sb concentrations.     

基于GIS的供电台区经营综合评价

探讨了运用GIS技术对供电台区经营综合评价的实现方法,选取了业务属性和空间属性两个方面评价因子,介绍了从系统软硬件、评价实现过程及显示结果等方面评价过程的具体技术实现。     

乌江下游沿岸滑坡发育特征

乌江是黔东北和渝东南少数民族地区与外界联系的一条水上黄金通道。担负了流域内80％以上的客货运输量。满足了沿岸2000多万人民生产和生活必需品运输的需要。乌江下游的彭水县城至涪陵市是乌江进入长江航运的咽喉要道，沿岸广泛分布和频繁发生的滑坡严重地威胁着航运的安全。通过现场调查发现，在长约150km范围内，两岸共发育各类滑坡28个，发育线模数为0．187个／km。沿岸滑坡发育形式主要为岩石顺层滑坡和风化堆积层滑坡。沿岸滑坡具有群发性的分布特征，与地层岩性和河谷岸坡类型等密切相关。岩石顺层滑坡主要集中分布在顺向岸坡软、硬岩层相间地段。风化堆积层滑坡则主要分布在软岩地层及其风化物堆积的岸坡地段。构造变动、河流的切蚀作用及人类活动是滑坡发育形成的主要原因，暴雨和长时间降雨是滑坡发生的重要诱发因素。目前，多数滑坡处于稳定状态，少数滑坡受降雨及江水涨落的影响而处于周期性蠕动变形状态。三峡水库蓄水后，部分滑坡有复活的可能。     

福建省滨海火电厂地质灾害问题及风险控制探讨

滨海火力发电厂工程主要包括厂区建筑、码头、管道、取排水、填海和贮灰场等工程。其主要面临着福建省海岸带构造运动、断裂及地震活动、港湾淤积、海底滑坡、软土地基、海底活动地貌、基岩不均匀风化以及人类工程活动等主要的灾害性地质因素。通过对这些因素潜在的致灾特点分析，提出了滨海火电厂地质灾害风险控制应包括选址阶段地质灾害风险回避、设计施工阶段地质灾害风险处理及运行阶段地质灾害风险监控等3方面。地质灾害风险评估是滨海火电厂地质灾害风险控制的首要任务。针对滨海电厂工程的特点，评估内容应着重于地质灾害危险性评估及易损性评估。选址阶段地质灾害风险回避主要是对构造不稳定的回避。地质灾害风险处理主要是电厂工程的基础处理及管道抗冲刷处理。电厂运行阶段地质灾害风险监控主要是对建筑物基础稳定性及海域冲淤变化的监控。