基于客观识别的冬季南支槽强度年际变化及其与南方降水的关联性

利用欧洲中心ERA Interim逐日再分析资料,基于南支槽客观识别方法定义了一个南支槽强度指数,并结合格点降水资料,对1980—2019年冬季南支槽强度的年际变化特征及其与中国降水、大气环流和水汽输送的联系进行了研究。结果表明：① 南支槽强度变化主要呈准4年周期。② 赤道中东太平洋海温是影响南支槽年际变化的一个重要因素,与南支槽强度有很强的负相关关系,其中Nino 3区的海温变化对南支槽强度的影响更显著。③ 南支槽偏强年从云南南部到华南一带降水量较常年偏多,其中广东、湖南和江西南部至福建一带降水量较常年偏多30 mm以上;南支槽偏弱年西南至华南一带降水较常年偏少,其中广东、广西东部降水量较常年偏少30 mm以上。④ 南支槽偏强年时存在两支异常水汽输送路径,一支为从赤道以北至10°N,从60°E延伸至菲律宾附近的异常强西风水汽输送带;另一支位于20°N附近,由南支槽的槽前西南气流将孟加拉湾地区水汽输送到我国境内,是冬季西南与华南的主要水汽通道。     

2020年7月西北太平洋和南海“空台”环流特征分析

2020年7月西北太平洋和南海出现了史无前例的“空台”事件。利用NCEP再分析数据集、中国气象局（CMA）台风最佳路径等资料研究了此次“空台”现象的大尺度环流背景及动力和热力学特征。使用台风潜在生成指数（DGPI）分析发现2020年7月大尺度环流背景不利于台风生成,环流系统的异常通过影响对流层垂直风切变和垂直运动限制了台风的活动。2020年7月马斯克林高压较常年明显偏西偏弱,导致索马里急流强度减弱,越赤道气流不活跃,菲律宾以东洋面和南海海域盛行一致的偏东气流,历史同期活跃在该区域的季风槽无法建立,从而不利于热带扰动的生成。北半球极涡主体偏向西半球一侧,影响东半球冷空气势力较弱,副热带高压位置偏西;南亚高压较历史同期偏强且偏东,其东侧强盛的偏东气流将洋中槽截断,在西北太平洋区域出现反气旋性环流,该区域下沉气流增强,导致副热带高压强度增强,对流层中层强烈的下沉气流抑制了台风的生成和发展。此外,受中高层环流系统异常的影响,7月菲律宾吕宋岛以东洋面和南海地区环境垂直风切变较常年偏高2～4 m/s,南海部分海域偏高达4～8 m/s,同时该区域内异常偏强的下沉气流导致对流层低层相对湿度偏低,大气层...     

Numerical simulation of nearshore circulation on field topography under random wave environment

In order to investigate surf zone hydrodynamics through two-dimensional numerical simulations of nearshore circulation under random wave environment, a nearshore circulation model, SHORECIRC, and a random wave model, SWAN, were combined and utilized. Using this combined model, a numerical simulation of the October 2, 1997 SandyDuck field experiment was performed. For this simulation, field topography and an input offshore spectrum were constructed using observed data sets synchronized with the experiment. The wave-breaking model in SWAN was modified by using breaker parameters varied according to bottom slope. The simulation results were compared with the experimental data, which revealed a well-developed longshore current, as well as with results using other combinations which were SHORECIRC and its original monochromatic wave-driver, and SHORECIRC and the default of SWAN. The results from the novel combined model agreed well with the experimental data. The results of the present simulation also indicate that alongshore field topography influences shear fluctuation of longshore currents.     

不同辐射背景下大西洋热盐环流下沉区混合层深度变化

基于政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)4种最新辐射强迫情景,利用ECHAM5/MPI-OM(European Centre Hamburg Model 5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model)气候模式输出的1850—2300年逐月混合层深度、海表面温度、海表面盐度数据,分析大西洋热盐环流下沉区混合层深度的变化情况。结果表明:随辐射强迫增加,热盐环流下沉区混合层深度下降,混合层深度振荡周期在格陵兰-冰岛-挪威海(Greenland Sea–Iceland Sea–Norwegian Sea,GIN)海域减小,在拉布拉多海(Labrador Sea,LAB)海域变化不大;与GIN海域相比,LAB海域混合层深度对辐射强迫变化更敏感;两海区温度对混合层深度的影响时间较长,混合层深度对盐度的变化反应迅速;混合层深度变化的主导因素在LAB海域中为盐度,而在GIN海域,低辐射强迫下温度主导混合层深度变化,中高辐射强迫下温度与盐度共同起主导作用。     

Arctic sea-ice motion and its relation to pressure field

Daily Arctic sea-ice motion maps during the winter seasons (December–March) from December 1988 to March 2003 derived from NSCAT, QuikSCAT, SSM/I, and AMSRE data by a wavelet analysis method have been merged with those derived from buoy data. These merged sea-ice motion data have been used to study the circulation regimes and winter-to-winter variability of Arctic sea-ice motion. The relation between sea-ice motion and the pressure field in the Arctic Ocean was also studied by applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to the monthly merged sea-ice motion data and the monthly pressure field data from IABP. The mean Arctic sea-ice motion map of the 15 winter seasons has two distinct features: the Beaufort Gyre and a cyclonic circulation system in the Eurasian Basin, which moves ice from the Laptev Sea to Fram Strait. The strengths and sizes of the two features change from one winter season to another. Seasons with a strong or normal Beaufort Gyre alternate with seasons with a weak or no Beaufort Gyre every one to three seasons. The principal components of the first two modes of PCA of the monthly sea-ice motion are closely correlated with their counterparts of the monthly pressure field in the Arctic Ocean. The mode-one components of these two anomalies alternate between anticyclonic and cyclonic circulation systems. The correlation between Arctic Oscillation indexes and the principal components of the first mode of PCA of the monthly Arctic sea-ice motion is low but statistically significant.     

Determining the age of water and long-term transport timescale of the Chesapeake Bay

The concept of age of water (AW) is applied to the Chesapeake Bay to investigate the long-term transport properties for dissolved substances. A real-time calibrated hydrodynamic Chesapeake Bay model in 3 Dimensions (CH3D), employing a boundary-fitted curvilinear grid, is used for the study. The long-term transport properties, represented by AW, are investigated under the conditions of low river inflow of 1995 and high river inflow of 1996, as well as for constant mean inflows. The influences of freshwater, density-induced circulation, and wind-induced transport on age distribution have been investigated. Model results show that river inflows, wind stress, and density-induced circulation play important roles in controlling the long-term transport in the Bay. The model results shows that it requires 120–300 days for a marked change in the characteristics of the pollutant source discharged into the Bay from the Susquehanna River to affect significantly the conditions near the mouth under different hydrodynamic conditions. An increase of river discharge results in increases of downstream residual current and gravitational circulation, and thus reduces AW. The density-induced circulation contributes to the transport substantially. The dissolved substances discharged into the Bay are transported out of the Bay more rapidly when the estuary becomes more stratified. Southeasterly and southwesterly winds have strong impacts on the transport compared to the northeasterly and northwesterly winds. The former increases lateral and vertical mixing significantly. Consequently, the gravitational circulation is reduced and the transport time is increased by 50%. The model results provide useful information for understanding the long-term transport processes in the Bay.     

1998年夏季季风爆发前后南海上层环流的诊断分析

基于1998年南海季风试验（SCSMEX，South China Sea Monsoon Experiment)期间2个强化观测航次（4－5月及6－7）所获温盐深（CTD）资料，利用一个改进逆模式研究了夏季季风爆发前后南海环流的演变特征。诊断计算表明，在此期间南海环流主要表现为两脊两槽型，即越南以东和菲律宾以西呈反气旋式环流，南海北部和南海中部呈气旋式环流。但对局部区域而言，可以发现在季风爆发前后其环流结构有明显的差异。上述计算结果亦与等压面上海水密度分布的定性分析结果及同期观测的ADCP资料进行了比较，结果表明模式计算所得到的南海上层环流主要特征与定性分析结果及实测资料大体一致，诊断结果可作为南海上层季风环流演变机制研究的依据。     

渤、黄、东海夏季环流的三维斜压模型

基于拉格朗日时均观点描述环流，建立起潮流与准定常流共同占优势系统中的陆浅海环流模型，并诊断计算了夏季渤、黄、东海的三维环流图。模拟结果较好地再现了渤、黄、东海主要流系的特征。对照冬季结果，对渤、黄、东海环流的季节变化做了阐述。从环流垂向分量的分布图上，可发现渐闽近海、长江口外存在较明显的上升流区。另外，对夏季渤、黄、东海的热盐环流和潮致余流分别进行了模拟，发现它们均能在黄海构成一逆时针向的五流系统，这对形成和维持夏季黄海冷水团的存在有重要作用。热盐环流的模拟结果表明，黄海冷水团环流含有“热成流”的成分；通过Lagrange余流的计算发现环绕黄河冷水团的环流还含有“潮成流”的成分。     

渤海海峡断面温度结构及流量的季节变化

作者采用 POM模式 ,利用从卫星遥感资料反演的风和海表温度 (SST)数据并考虑 M2分潮作用 ,对渤海海域的温度、流场的三维结构进行数值计算。根据数值模式的计算结果 ,重点分析渤海海峡温度结构和水交换的季节变化特征。结果表明风应力和 SST的季节性变化导致渤海海峡的水交换流型、温度结构和流量有明显的季节性变化。