一个基于MOM的全球海洋数值同化预报系统

随着国家战略利益的拓展,国家对全球海洋环境预报保障的需求日益凸显。近年来,国家海洋环境预报中心研发并建立我国首个涵盖全球大洋的"全球海洋数值预报系统",该预报系统由MOM4全球海洋环流模式及三维变分同化系统组成。该系统的建立,实现了全球范围海洋环流预报业务全覆盖,为我国探索深海大洋环境的迫切需求提供有力保障,明显提升了我国海洋环境预报能力,体现了我国海洋数值预报技术的发展和进步。该系统的历史回报试验和业务化试运行结果表明其对全球海洋环境要素具有较好的预报能力,其预测结果已经在实际业务中得到了应用,在"雪龙号"极地遇险脱困、马航MH370失联飞机搜救等重大事件的预报保障任务中发挥了重要作用,为我国实施海洋强国战略,推进实施"21世纪海上丝绸之路"的战略构想,应对海上突发事件、维护国家海洋权益等各个方面提供有力的科技支撑和保障,并成为我国全球海洋预报业务的重要参考依据。     

2003年北极科考期间一次极涡个例天气学分析

2003年9月3日到14日,"雪龙"号考察船进入北冰洋楚科奇海观测期间,正值一次典型的北极极涡环流过程形成和发展。以往研究大多集中于极涡的平均水平环流特征和季节变化,该例为我们研究它的瞬时环流形势和特征提供了条件。利用NCEP全球分析资料及第二次北极科考资料对这次个例进行天气学分析,通过描述极涡个例的发展情况,平流层、对流层的环流特征以及二者之间的关系,并分析卫星遥感图像及"雪龙"号考察船的气象资料,分析结果发现:2003年中国第二次北极科考期间经历的极涡形成和发展,典型地表现出极地冬夏环流型的转换过程。首先在平流层发生,然后向对流层传播,该个例是一次在平流层西退加强,在对流层东移南下的过程。     

Dominant climate factors influencing the Arctic runoff and association between the Arctic runoff and sea ice

By using the Arctic runoff data from R-ArcticNET V4.0 and ArcticRIMS, trends of four major rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean, whose climate factor plays an important role in determining the variability of the Arctic runoff, are investigated. The results show that for the past 30 years, the trend of the Arctic runoff is seasonally dependent. There is a significant trend in spring and winter and a significant decreasing trend in summer, leading to the reduced seasonal cycle. In spring, surface air temperature is the dominant factor influencing the four rivers. In summer, precipitation is the most important factor for Lena and Mackenzie, while snow cover is the most important factor for Yenisei and Ob. For Mackenzie, atmospheric circulation does play an important role for all the seasons, which is not the case for the Eurasian rivers. The authors further discuss the relationships between the Arctic runoff and sea ice. Significant negative correlation is found at the mouth of the rivers into the Arctic Ocean in spring, while significant positive correlation is observed just at the north of the mouths of the rivers into the Arctic in summer. In addition, each river has different relationship with sea ice in the eastern Greenland Sea.     

山东半岛一次区域性连续暴雨过程分析

本文对2007年8月10～12日山东半岛连续3日的区域性暴雨天气过程进行了分析。环流形势分析表明:热带系统的水汽条件、西风带弱冷空气的抬升条件和副热带高压边缘的不稳定层结条件,共同作用形成了这次明显的暴雨天气;能量场和物理量场分析得出:强降水发生前,山东半岛都存在36℃以上的K指数高能舌和大于60℃的θse高能舌区,对强降水的预报具有一定的指导意义;雷达分析表明:第一阶段的强降水是强风暴引起的,其中尺度系统是飑线和中尺度雨带,当中尺度系统发生合并时,都能使降水强度得到提升;在弱对流降水阶段,当东海低压和低层切变线发生叠加时,能使降水强度大大增强。     

Identification of CO2 disposal locations in an ocean general circulation model of the North Pacific

A basinwide ocean general circulation model of the North Pacific is used to identify which location is more efficient for ocean CO2 sequestration in the North Pacific. Four injection depths at each one of fifteen locations are chosen. In terms of effectiveness index (EI) and escape factor (EF), it is clear that the effectiveness increases with increasing latitude at the end of the 50 a injection period. Sitebysite differences in the EI can be over 9% for the 1 000 m injection depth in the western North Pacific at the end of 50 a of continuous injection. The difference is much larger for the 500 m injection. The difference decreases with increasing injection depth. However, the sitebysite difference is small for the injection in the eastern North Pacific. The sequestration is more efficient for the injection in the east than in the west. For the 500 m injection depth, the difference in effectiveness between the west and the east is over 10% at the end of 50 a injection period. The largest concentration of sequestered CO2 increases with increasing injection depth. For the injection in both the western and central North Pacific, the largest exchange flux always appears to be at about 42°N, 150°E, whereas for the injection in the eastern area the large flux appears to be in the equatorial region (120°W).     

A Lagrangian mean theory on coastal sea circulation with inter-tidal transports Ⅱ. Numerical Experiments

The results of the new concept of coastal sea circulation are demonstrated by numerical simulations for the first time. The numerical experiments in three types of rectangular model seas illustrate the dependence of circulation on tidal phases due to the convectively nonlinear effect which is estimated by a newly defined drift dispersion in-dex. Then, the present theory is applied in the Bohai Sea of China. At the Bohai Straits and the Huanghe River mouth area the circulation direction even reverses owing to different initial tidal phases which shows that the the-ory copes with nonlinearity well. The calculated M2 tide-induced residual circulation shows that a clockwise gyre exists in the center of an anticlockwise gyre in the central Bohai Sea due to the topographic features. In the Bo-hai Gulf the tide induced circulation shows a 3D structure with outflow at the surface and the inflow at the bottom which can partly explains the spread of the Huanghe River fresh water out of the Bohai Gulf and the inflow of the sediment from the Huanghe River.     

100hPa环流变化与川渝地区旱涝异常分析

应用ＳＶＤ技术,诊断分析了北半球１００ｈＰａ高度场与川渝地区夏季降水的关系。结果表明：高度场与降水场具有密切的时空相关性,第一模态反映了两场间的主要耦合特征;南亚高压活动地区前期１０～１２月、１～４月高度场变化,通过影响未来夏季南亚高压强度、位置,导致川渝地区夏季旱涝异常。高度场与降水场的这种非同步联系,物理意义明确,时空相关显著,是一种有价值的预测川渝地区夏季旱涝异常的强信号。     

2022年7月大气环流和天气分析

2022年7月大气环流主要特征为北半球极涡呈单极型且较常年同期略偏强,中高纬环流呈4波型分布,西太平洋副热带高压较常年同期偏北偏西。7月,全国平均降水量为96.6 mm,较常年同期偏少21%,为1961年以来历史同期第二少;全国平均气温为23.2℃,较常年同期偏高1.0℃,为1961年以来历史同期第二高。月内有6次区域性暴雨天气过程,1—7日强降水过程由于受到台风登陆及减弱后的低压环流与西风带系统相互作用,影响我国中东部大部分地区,5次强降水集中在西北地区东部、华北、黄淮、东北地区。月内共有3个台风生成,较常年同期偏少;经历2次高温天气过程,表现出极端性显著、影响范围广和持续时间长的特点,四川盆地、江南、西北地区东部、新疆的部分地区出现40℃以上高温天气,多站日最高气温突破历史同期极值。     

A note on the role of meridional wind stress anomalies and heat flux in ENSO simulations

Four comparative experiments and some supplementary experiments were conducted to examine the role of meridional wind stress anomalies and heat flux variability in ENSO simulations by using a high-resolution Ocean General Circulation Model （OGCM）. The results indicate that changes in the direction and magnitude of meridional wind stress anomalies have little influence on ENSO simulations until meridional wind stress anomalies are unrealistically enlarged by a factor of 5.0. However, evidence of an impact on ENSO simulations due to heat flux variability was found. The simulated Nino-3 index without the effect of heat flux anomalies tended to be around 1.0° lower than the observed, as well as the control run, during the peak months of ENSO events.