Flood-type trend analysis for alpine catchments

ABSTRACT

In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses.     

分层随机抽样下全球30 m火烧迹地产品验证

火烧迹地是全球及区域碳循环和气候变化等研究所需的重要参数之一,卫星遥感技术为快速获取大区域火烧迹地空间分布信息提供了有效手段。中国科学院基于Landsat系列卫星数据研发了首个30 m空间分辨率全球火烧迹地产品GABAM (Global Annual Burned Area Map)。遥感数据产品的精度验证对产品使用具有重要意义,迄今尚未有研究机构对GABAM产品精度进行独立评价和分析。为系统评价GABAM产品精度,利用2010年全球30 m空间分辨率火烧迹地产品(GABAM2010)开展精度验证研究工作,在全球和几个陆地生物群落中估算了产品精度,并探索了全球遥感专题产品精度验证的技术框架。基于分层随机抽样选择80个非重叠的泰森多边形区域TSA (Thiessen Scene Areas),采用误差矩阵和6个精度指标对GABAM2010产品做全面精度评价和分析,以满足火烧迹地产品用户的使用要求。结果表明:在全球范围内,GABAM2010产品的错分率和漏分率分别为24.32%和31.60%,总体精度为97.85%;由于数据质量(如条带、云)等的影响,火烧迹地的范围会被低估,对于较容易发生火灾的生物群落,如热带亚热带草原区域,GABAM2010产品精度较高;在生物群落内部,高密度火烧迹地区域的精度高于低密度火烧迹地区域。     

Atmospheric pollution assessment near potential source of natural aerosols in the South Gobi Desert region,China

ABSTRACT

Rapid economic growth, a high degree of urbanization and the proximity of a large number of desert and semidesert landscapes can have a significant impact on the atmosphere of adjacent territories, leading to high levels of atmospheric pollution. Therefore, identifying possible sources of atmospheric pollution is one of the main tasks. In this study, we carried out an analysis of spatial and temporal characteristics of five main atmospheric pollutants (PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂, and CO) near potential source of natural aerosols, affecting seven cities (Wuhai, Alashan, Wuzhong, Zhongwei, Wuwei, Jinchang, Zhangye), located in immediate proximity to the South Gobi deserts. The results, obtained for the period from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2018, demonstrate total concentrations of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ are 38.2 ± 19.5 and 101 ± 80.7 μg/m³ exceeding the same established by the Chinese National Ambient Air Quality Standard (CNAAQS), being 35 and 70 μg/m³, respectively. Based on the data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the whole period, Clean Сontinental (71.49%) and Mixed (22.29%) types of aerosols prevail in the region. In the spring and winter seasons maximum concentrations of pollutants and high values of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) in the region atmosphere are observed. PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ ratio shows the presence of coarse aerosols in the total content with value 0.43. The highest concentrations of pollutants were in the period of dust storms activity, when PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ content exceeded 200 and 1000 µg/m³, and AOD value exceeded 1. UV Aerosol Index (UVAI), Aerosol Absorbing Optical Depth (AAOD), and Single Scattering Albedo (SSA), obtained from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), demonstrate the high content of dust aerosols in the period of sandstorms. Analysis of backward trajectories shows that dust air masses moved from North to Northwest China, affecting large deserts such as Taklamakan, Gurbantunggut, Badain Jaran, Tengger, and Ulan Buh deserts.     

江淮梅雨与东亚副热带夏季风进程变异的关系

根据中国气象局《梅雨监测业务规定》中的入、出梅标准,结合1960—2016年全国661个常规气象站逐日气象资料,以及NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料,分析了江淮梅雨和东亚副热带夏季风进程变异的时空特征,提取季风关键区(32°~34°N,112°~120°E,包含17个站点),并分析了江淮梅雨和季风关键区的联系与成因。结果表明:1960—2016年平均梅雨期为6月8日—7月15日,平均梅雨量为303 mm。比东亚平均梅雨季的开始时间早9 d,比其结束时间晚7 d。梅雨量在近57 a中也呈波动式变化,但整体为上升趋势。入梅越早,出梅越晚,则梅雨期越长,梅雨量越多。副热带夏季风推进到关键区的平均时间为5月19日,其在1970s末和1990s末分别发生了由偏晚向偏早和由偏早向偏晚的突变。夏季风到达关键区偏早时,出梅日偏晚,梅雨量偏多,季风到达偏晚时,出梅日偏早,梅雨量偏少。副热带夏季风推进时间和江淮梅雨量呈全区一致的负相关,负相关区位于湖南、湖北及江西三省临近的两湖地区。东亚副热带夏季风到达关键区时间偏早(晚)年,500 hPa高度场上乌拉尔山—鄂霍茨克海为正(负)距平,阻塞高压增强(减弱);日本海附近为负(正)距平,东亚大槽加深(西退北缩),加强(削弱)了槽后冷空气向南输送且不(有)利于中低纬度副热带高压的北跳,西太平洋副热带高压中心强度增强(减弱),位置偏西(东),其西北侧的西南暖湿气流输送加强(减弱),江淮地区有水汽的辐合(辐散),有(不)利于梅雨量偏多。     

GPM卫星降水数据在沿海地区的适用性分析——以三亚市为例

选取2016年1—12月GPM(Global Precipitation Measurement)卫星的IMERG月尺度降水数据为研究对象,以同时期的气象站点实测降水数据为参考,利用相关系数、标准偏差、相对误差等多种统计分析指标对其在沿海地区估测能力进行评价。结果表明:IMERG月尺度降水量与站点实测降水数据相关性较好,IMERG估测的降水与气象站点实测降水量的时空变化规律也较为一致,但是量化到具体数值而言,其对山区、海岛站的估测能力不及地势平坦的区域;同时,选取降水个例对IMERG日尺度和半小时尺度降水数据的分析表明,日尺度IMERG估测的不同等级降水量也存在偏差,半小时尺度IMERG降水数据对海岛站的降水估测偏高。总体而言,IMERG降水数据对降水的时间变化规律和空间分布格局估测较为合理,但是对山区、海岛地区,其降水估测值还存在偏差,在今后应用中需结合地形特征加以合理利用。     

枣庄地区寒武纪_早奥陶世层序地层特征

枣庄地区寒武纪-早奥陶世处于被动大陆边缘陆棚环境,沉积序列受海平面的周期性变化所控制.由寒武系底部不整合面和怀远运动间断面所限定的地层组合,可划分为A,B两个二级层序和12个三级层序,其中张夏组底界面与二级层序底界面一致,为一个由陆源浑水沉积环境向碳酸盐清水沉积环境演化的转换面.     

岫岩北瓦沟构造序列及构造演化

在吕梁造山旋回期间(1900Ma)北瓦沟辽河群经受了多幕变质和多期变形的改造,可识别出三组皱褶构造:1.早期近东西向片内平卧褶皱,由固态流变机制形成(F_1);2.枢扭北北西—南南东向不对称褶皱(F_2);3.北东向开阔褶皱构造(F_3)。此外,还发育与褶皱构造相关的布丁构造和布丁褶皱。赋存在辽河群中的铅锌矿床遭受了强烈的改造作用并严格受构造控制。     

昆仑山口西8.1级地震后青藏高原北部地区地震活动初步研究

利用相关震例分析了昆仑山口西8．1级地震后青藏高原北部地区未来1～3年地震活动特征．结果表明,沿东昆仑构造带及邻近地区发生Ms≥7．0地震后青藏高原北部地区中强地震活动有增强的趋势,祁连山地震带和东昆仑地震带的地震活动具有交替发生的特征,未来1～3年中强地震主体活动区为大型走滑活动断裂上应力转换部位和挤压会聚构造区,如东昆仑断裂带中东段和祁连山地震带中东段和西段。     

The carbon isotope composition of C<Superscript>3</Superscript> herbaceous plants in loess area of northern China

¹³C of 367 C₃ herbaceous plants was measured in loess area in northern China. Their δ¹³C values vary between −21.7%. and −30.0%., with a mean of −26.7%.. In the center of Loess Plateau (semimoist area) with annual precipitation of 400–600 mm, the δ¹³ C values of C₃ herbaceous plants range from −24.4%. to −28.5%., with a mean of −27.5%.. In the west of Loess Plateau (semiarid and arid area) with annual precipitation less than 400 mm, they range between −21.7%. and −30.0%., with a mean of −26.2%.. Annual precipitation is the main factor that makes δ¹³C values of C₃ herbaceous plants in the west greater than those in the central Loess Plateau. The composition of δ¹³C in C₃ plants increases with deceasing annual precipitation, and the mean change is −49%./100 mm.