基于GWR模型的道路网络对森林碳密度干扰的地理变异

以闽江上游地区为例,在分析三明市2007—2016年森林碳密度时空动态的基础上,采用常规的以及改进后的道路网络测度指标,应用缓冲区分析方法和地理加权回归（Geographically Weighted Regression,GWR）模型,从线上和面上分别探讨道路网络对森林碳密度干扰的地理变异规律。结果表明：① 碳密度受到道路网络的较大影响,路网影响域内外碳密度的大小排序为：路网影响域内＜整个研究区＜路网影响域外;多条道路影响域重叠区的碳密度(26.330 Mg/hm²)明显低于单条道路影响域的碳密度(37.406 Mg/hm²);不同等级道路影响域的碳密度由大到小依次为县道＞高速＞省道＞其它道路＞国道＞乡道。道路网络对2007—2016年碳密度的降低也有明显影响。② GWR模型的分析结果表明,路网对碳密度的影响程度随着样点的变化而变化,具有“空间非平稳性”。碳密度随着路网密度的增加而降低,而随着离道路距离的增加而增加。③ 研究区西北部和中部,GWR的回归系数及相关系数均较大,表明这2个区域道路对碳密度影响大且解释力皆较强。     

The emergent network structure of the multilateral environmental agreement system

The conventional piecemeal approach to environmental treaty-making has resulted in a ‘maze’ of international agreements. However, little is known empirically about its overall structure and evolutionary dynamics. This study reveals and characterizes the evolving structure of the web of international environmental treaty law. The structure was approximated using 1001 cross-references among 747 multilateral environmental agreements concluded from 1857 to 2012. Known network analysis measures were used to answer the following questions: has a complex system of international environmental treaty law emerged? If so when, and what does it look like? What are its topological properties? To what extent is the institutional complex fragmented? The network analysis suggested that multilateral environmental agreements have self-organized into an interlocking system with a complex network structure. Furthermore, the system has defragmented as it coevolved with the increasing complexity and interconnectivity of global environmental challenges. This study demonstrates the need to approach multilateral environmental agreements in the context of a complex networked system, and recommends against assuming the overall institutional structure is fragmented. Proposals for global environmental governance reform should pay attention to this network's emergent polycentric order and complexity and to the implications of these features for the functioning of the multilateral environmental agreement system.     

BIBLIOGRAPHIE

Abstract

Time series modelling approaches are useful tools for simulating and forecasting hydrological variables and their change through time. Although linear time series models are common in hydrology, the nonlinear time series model, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, has rarely been used in hydrology and water resources engineering. The GARCH model considers the conditional variance remaining in the residuals of the linear time series models, such as an ARMA or an ARIMA model. In the present study, the advantages of a GARCH model against a linear ARIMA model are investigated using three classes of the GARCH approach, namely Power GARCH, Threshold GARCH and Exponential GARCH models. A daily streamflow time series of the Matapedia River, Quebec, Canada, is selected for this study. It is shown that the ARIMA (13,1,4) model is adequate for modelling streamflow time series of Matapedia River, but the Engle test shows the existence of heteroscedasticity in the residuals of the ARIMA model. Therefore, an ARIMA (13,1,4)-GARCH (3,1) error model is fitted to the data. The residuals of this model are examined for the existence of heteroscedasticity. The Engle test indicates that the GARCH model has considerably reduced the heteroscedasticity of the residuals. However, the Exponential GARCH model seems to completely remove the heteroscedasticity from the residuals. The multi-criteria evaluation for model performance also proves that the Exponential GARCH model is the best model among ARIMA and GARCH models. Therefore, the application of a GARCH model is strongly suggested for hydrological time series modelling as the conditional variance of the residuals of the linear models can be removed and the efficiency of the model will be improved.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Modarres, R. and Ouarda, T.B.M.J., 2013. Modelling heteroscedasticty of streamflow times series. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–11.     

小型局域网络系统的扩展设计

采用混合方式的网络拓扑结构和内部网桥技术，以低廉的投资实现了一个网络覆盖范围较大、能跨越多栋办公大楼的小型局域网络。该网络电缆距离的延伸较长，布线灵活，网段间隔离性好，不仅可以提高网络传输效率，易于检测判断故障，而且运行安全可靠，是一种有效的计算机小型局域网络设计／改造方案     

震害现场紧急卫星通讯系统的研究和建设

本文研究了应用VSAT技术建立大震现场紧急通讯系统的设计和实施方案,规定了该系统应实现的功能。在此基础上,提出了建立我国未来陆地地震救灾移动卫星通讯计划,并对一些关键技术和为移动用户可能提供的通讯业务进行了讨论。     

RESOLUTION OF MULTICOMPONENT FLUORESCENT MIXTURES BY ANALYSIS OF THE EXCITATION-EMISSION-FREQUENCY ARRAY

Fluorescence lifetime provides a third independent dimension of information for the resolution of totalluminescence spectra of multicomponent mixtures.The incorporation of this parameter into theexcitation-emission matrix(EEM)by the phase modulation technique results in a three-dimensionalexcitation-emission-frequency array (EEFA).Multicomponent analysis based on the three-dimensionalEEFA brings a qualitative change for the resolved spectra,i.e.individual spectra can be uniquely resolved,which is impossible with any two-dimensional analysis.In this paper we present a method for analyzingthe EEFA.We show mathematically that with the three-dimensional analysis of the EEFA individualspectra and lifetimes can be obtained.Our algorithm is developed in mathematical detail and isdemonstrated by its application to a two-component mixture.     

Nonlinear regional economic dynamics: continuous-time specification,estimation and stability analysis

This paper presents an innovative approach to the study of regional economic dynamics within a nonlinear continuous-time econometric framework—a generalized specification of the Lotka–Volterra system of equations. This specification, which accounts for interdependent behavior of three industrial sectors and spillover effects of activities in neighboring regions, is employed in an analysis of five Italian regions between 1980 and 2003. For these regions, we report estimation results, characterize the varying systems dynamics, analyze the models’ local and global stability properties, and determine via sensitivity analyses which structural features appear to exert the greatest influence on these properties.

Response of runoff to climate change in the area of runoff yield in upstream Shiyang River Basin,Northwest China: A case study of the Xiying River

The objective of this study was to analyze the response of runoff in the area of runoff yield of the upstream Shiyang River basin to climate change and to promote sustainable development of regional water resources and ecological environment. As the biggest tributary of the Shiyang River, Xiying River is the only hydrological station (Jiutiaoling) that has provincial natural river and can achieve long time series monitoring data in the basin. The data obtained from this station is representative of natural conditions because it has little human activites. This study built a regression model through identifying the characteristics of runoff and climate change by using Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test, cumulative anomaly, and correlation analysis. The results show that the average annual runoff is 320.6 million m³/a with the coefficient of variation of 0.18 and shows slightly decrease during 1956–2020. It has a significant positive correlation the average annual precipitation (P<0.01). Runoff is sensitive to climate change, and the climate has becoming warm and wet and annual runoff has entering wet period from 2003. Compared to the earlier period (1955–2000), the increases of average annual temperature, precipitation and runoff in recent two decades were 15%, 9.3%, and 7.8%, respectively. Runoff in the Shiyang River is affected by temperature and precipitation among climate factors, and the simulation results of the runoff-climate response model (R = 0.0052P ? 0.1589T + 2.373) indicate that higher temperature leads to a weakening of the ecological regulation of surface runoff in the flow-producing area.     

A simple prediction model for wall deflection caused by braced excavation in clays

Deep excavations particularly in deep deposits of soft clay can cause excessive ground movements and result in damage to adjacent buildings. Extensive plane strain finite element analyses considering the small strain effect have been carried out to examine the wall deflections for excavations in soft clay deposits supported by retaining walls and bracing. The excavation geometry, soil strength and stiffness properties, and the wall stiffness were varied to study the wall deflection behavior. Based on these results, a simple Polynomial Regression (PR) model was developed for estimating the maximum wall deflection. Wall deflections computed by this method compare favorably with a number of field and published records.