岷县漳县6.6级地震前区域地壳运动变形背景与断层形变异常特征

利用甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震区所在的青藏块体东北缘地区的区域水准、GPS、流动重力和跨断层短测线等地形变监测资料,结合地质构造、动力环境和已往的研究结果,分析了不同类型资料反映的震前区域性地壳变形背景、断层形变异常特征和可能的机理.结果认为：（1）岷县漳县6.6级地震前西秦岭、六盘山等构造区不同程度地存在着GPS水平挤压闭锁高应变积累、垂直隆升异常高梯度带和重力升、降差异剧烈变化等中长期背景;（2）震前到震时发震断裂附近及其外围相关构造区域断层形变异常在空间和时间上的起伏波动变化显著,尤其是汶川地震以来的波动变化在一定程度上反映了与本区构造比邻的龙门山断裂带剧烈右旋错动对本区的影响,与本次岷县6.6级地震过程有关;（3）本区有地形变监测资料积累以来缺乏6级以上震例,虽然存在不同程度的中长期形变背景异常,但何时进入短期-短临阶段确实很难把握,需要不断积累总结和探索提高.     

台湾海峡及其邻区现今构造应力场数值模拟

本文将台湾海峡及其邻区划分为多个具有不同弹性参数的等厚区块,并利用基于弹性理论的有限元数值模型,以GPS观测速度和由震源机制解(FMS)得到的主应力轴方向为约束条件,计算了该研究区的现今构造应力场.结果表明:(1)最大主应力轴在台湾海峡中部和台湾岛弧中部大致为NW-SE向,在东北部呈顺时针旋转,而在南部呈逆时针旋转;(2)研究区水平位移场大致以23°N为界,南强北弱,且在北部呈顺时针旋转,南部呈逆时针旋转;(3)东沙-澎湖-北港隆起因强度大于周边盆地区而成为"阻挡带",导致在其南北出现两个反向的构造逃逸区,并且隆起东南区形变特别强烈,而其西北区则相对较弱.     

山西地堑系的最新水平运动

利用山西断裂带布设的GPS监测网的6期复测资料(1996—2001),分析了山西断陷带的水平运动特征。结果表明,整体呈现逆时针的差异活动,主压应力场的方位角为72°,断裂两侧不存在明显的走滑运动。2001年的运动显示,代县附近是差异活动的分界区段。     

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF SLIP RATE DEFICIT ACROSS HAIYUAN-LIUPAN SHAN FAULT ZONE CONSTRAINED BY GPS DATA

As the northeast boundary of the Tibetan plateau, the Haiyuan-Liupan Shan fault zone has separated the intensely tectonic deformed Tibetan plateau from the stable blocks of Ordos and Alxa since Cenozoic era. It is an active fault with high seismic risk in the west of mainland China. Using geology and geodetic techniques, previous studies have obtained the long-term slip rate across the Haiyuan-Liupan Shan fault zone. However, the detailed locking result and slip rate deficit across this fault zone are scarce. After the 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake, the tectonic stress field of Longmen Shan Fault and its vicinity was changed, which suggests that the crustal movement and potential seismic risk of Haiyuan-Liupan Shan fault zone should be investigated necessarily. Utilizing GPS horizontal velocities observed before and after Wenchuan earthquake(1999~2007 and 2009~2014), the spatial and temporal distributions of locking and slip rate deficit across the Haiyuan-Liupan Shan fault zone are inferred. In our model, we assume that the crustal deformation is caused by block rotation, horizontal strain rate within block and locking on block-bounding faults. The inversion results suggest that the Haiyuan fault zone has a left-lateral strike-slip rate deficit, the northern section of Liupan Shan has a thrust dip-slip rate deficit, while the southern section has a normal dip-slip rate deficit. The locking depths of Maomao Shan and west section of Laohu Shan are 25km during two periods, and the maximum left-lateral slip rate deficit is 6mm/a. The locking depths of east section of Laohu Shan and Haiyuan segment are shallow, and creep slip dominates them presently, which indicates that these sections are in the postseismic relaxation process of the 1920 Haiyuan earthquake. The Liupan Shan Fault has a locking depth of 35km with a maximum dip-slip rate deficit of 2mm/a. After the Wenchuan earthquake, the high slip rate deficit across Liupan Shan Fault migrated from its middle to northern section, and the range decreased, while its southern section had a normal-slip rate deficit. Our results show that the Maomao Shan Fault and west section of Laohu Shan Fault could accumulate strain rapidly and these sections are within the Tianzhu seismic gap. Although the Liupan Shan Fault accumulates strain slowly, a long time has been passed since last large earthquake, and it has accumulated high strain energy possibly. Therefore, the potential seismic risks of these segments are significantly high compared to other segments along the Haiyuan-Liupan Shan fault zone.     

含碳结构对龙门山断层带电导率影响的实验探索

碳是影响岩石电导率大小的一个重要因素,可能是造成龙门山断层带电导率异常的重要原因之一.为了研究不同的碳含量、矿物颗粒粒径与碳晶体结构对断层带电导率的影响,在干燥、常温、0.2~300 MPa的压力条件下实验研究了人工模拟断层泥样品（石英粉末与含碳粉末混合的样品,简称模拟样品）和采自映秀-北川断层八角庙剖面的天然断层岩样品（简称天然样品）的电导率.实验结果显示,当模拟样品中的含碳粉末连通时,电导率与碳体积率的关系符合逾渗理论模型;而含碳粉末未连通时,电导率随总孔隙度降低而指数性升高.同时模拟样品的电导率也随石英颗粒粒径的变化而发生改变.相比于模拟样品中的含碳粉末主要分布于石英颗粒支撑的孔隙中,天然样品中的碳则主要以碳膜的形式赋存在颗粒边缘,导致碳体积率相同的条件下,模拟样品的电导率小于天然样品.此外,天然样品的电导率（ < 9×10^-4 S·m^-1）也要小于野外大地电磁探测的结果（0.03~0.1 S·m^-1）.在今后的实验中还需要考虑在动态摩擦条件下对含有完整含碳结构的天然样品进行电导率的实验研究.

     

Fisheries mismanagement

We analysed the extent to which European politicians have adhered to scientific recommendations on annual total allowable catches (TACs) from 1987 to 2011, covering most of the period of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). For the 11 stocks examined, TACs were set higher than scientific recommendations in 68% of decisions. Politically-adjusted TACs averaged 33% above scientifically recommended levels. There was no evidence that the 2002 reform of the CFP improved decision-making, as was claimed at the time. We modelled the effects of such politically-driven decision-making on stock sustainability. Our results suggest that political adjustment of scientific recommendations dramatically increases the probability of a stock collapsing within 40 years.In 2012 European fisheries policy will undergo a once-a-decade reform. Ten years ago radical reforms were promised but the changes failed to improve sustainability. It is likely that the 2012 reform will be similarly ineffective unless decision-making is changed so that catch allocations are based on science rather than politics.     

北太平洋上空臭氧总量长期变化趋势及其影响因素分析

本文基于1979-2014年臭氧总量的卫星遥感数据,利用多元线性回归模型对臭氧总量数据序列进行模拟计算,考察了北太平洋上空臭氧总量长期变化趋势及其影响因素的作用.结果表明,北太平洋地区大气臭氧总量长期变化呈现减少趋势,但是减少速率随季节和纬度带表现出差异性,在各纬度带臭氧峰值季节臭氧下降趋势最为显著.在0°-15°N地区臭氧高值出现在夏秋季节并在8月达到峰值,峰值月份臭氧年均下降率约为0.2DU/a;15°-30°N亚热带地区臭氧高值出现在春夏季并在5月达到峰值,峰值月份臭氧年均下降速率约为0.22DU/a;而在30°-45°N中纬度地区臭氧高值出现在冬春季并在2月达到峰值,峰值月份臭氧年均下降率0.75DU/a.在臭氧分布年平均态基础上,影响臭氧总量分布变化的因素主要有臭氧损耗物质（EESC）、太阳辐射周期（Solar）、准两年振荡（QBO）和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）等.其中,EESC导致臭氧损耗效应随着纬度升高而增大,在从低到高的三个纬度带损耗最大值分别为11DU、16DU和66DU;Solar增强导致臭氧增加,在三个纬度带的增加效应最大值分别为16DU、17DU和19DU;QBO@10 hPa和QBO@30 hPa对臭氧影响幅度基本在±10DU内波动,只有QBO@10 hPa对30°-45°N区域的影响作用达到14DU,值得注意的是QBO影响作用随着纬度变化存在相位差异,在0°-15°N区域臭氧变化与QBO呈现相同相位,而在15°-30°N和30°-45°N区域臭氧变化与QBO呈现相反相位;ENSO对各个纬度带臭氧影响幅度也在±10DU内,ENSO影响作用在不同纬度带也存在相位差异,臭氧总量变化在0°-15°N、15°-30°N区域与ENSO相位相反,在30°-45°N区域与ENSO相位一致.     

GPS技术在高速公路改扩建的应用

GPS技术已经被逐步应用到桥梁工程测量实践中,并引发了该领域中一场深刻的革命。本文阐述了桥梁工程中应用GPS测量技术的基础工作,探讨了GPS测量技术在桥梁工程设计规划和建设施工中的应用,并就GPS-RTK、GPS高程拟合、施工中静态定位测量的优势及桥梁工程测量技术的发展方向进行了介绍。     

GPS与全站仪在地质剖面测量中的应用

本文以密云县石城镇泥石流沟堆积物剖面测量为例介绍GPS,全站仪在地质剖面测量中的应用,室内数据处理和剖面图的生成。与传统的地质剖面测量方法相比较,运用GPS,全站仪测量地质剖面快捷,精度高,误差小。基于CAD技术的地质剖面绘制系统在图形表达方面具有优势。