中尺度模式中不同对流参数化方案的比较试验

MM5模式中有多种积云参数化方案可供选择,粗细网格采用不同的积云参数化方案对降水预报有一定的影响。采用常用的四种积云参数化方案,粗细网格进行不同配置,对辽东半岛大暴雨过程进行试验发现：细网格信息可以通过嵌套边界向外层传递,影响外层预报结果。细网格选取GR方案比选取AK、BM、KF方案模拟效果好很多;细网格参数化方案不变,粗网格取不同的参数化方案,对细网格的模拟结果差别不大。但选取一个好的参数化方案对细网格的模拟结果会稍有改进。     

河南省X.25分组交换网的建设

介绍了河南省气象台与地市局、国家基本站之间依托于邮电部门的Ｘ．２５分组交换网组建的全省Ｘ．２５分组交换网的设计思想和具体实现。     

两步保形平流方案在高分辨率球面经纬网格下的跳点差分试验

尝试用一个基于有限差分的两步保形平流方案（TSPAS）替代美国国家大气研究中心第5版公用大气模式（NCAR-CAM5）欧拉-谱动力框架中的半拉格朗日传输（SLT）平流方案,并针对不同分辨率版本,计算水汽等物质的传输过程。通过设计保证守恒性的跳点差分法,解决了基于经纬网格的模式在高分辨率下由于极区纬向格距过小而造成的差分方案积分时间步长过短的问题,使得TSPAS在高分辨率下仍然可以使用较大的时间步长。理想试验表明：（1）跳点TSPAS在守恒性、数值精度（量级上）、保形性等方面均较好地保持了原TSPAS的特点,而积分步长可增大到与CAM5-SLT相同,比原TSPAS提高超过一个数量级;（2）较半拉格朗日传输方案,尽管TSPAS的耗散更大,但是在相同时间步长下更省时,且改进了半拉格朗日传输求解平流方程造成的不守恒问题。CAM5的比较试验表明：（1）采用跳点TSPAS的模式结果与非跳点计算结果相当,在高纬度跳点区域也并未出现模拟异常;（2）在高分辨率下,采用跳点TSPAS方案的CAM5模拟结果与原模式结果相近,并初步显示对东亚青藏高原南侧的虚假降水有所抑制。该工作确保了基于欧拉通量差分型的TSPAS在高分辨率模式下的大时间步长稳定积分,为解决有限差分方法在高分辨率模式发展中的相关计算问题提供了启示,为后续针对东亚地区的模式性能改进奠定了基础。     

Poleward expansion of the hadley circulation in CMIP5 simulations

Observational analyses have demonstrated that the Hadley circulation has expanded poleward in recent decades. Important issues are what caused the widening of the Hadley circulation and whether the observed widening is related to anthropogenic forcing. In the present study, we use currently available simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) to analyze changes in the width of the Hadley circulation. It is found that CMIP5 historical simulations with greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing generate a total widening of ～0.15o0.06o in latitude (10 yr)-1 for the period 1979--2005, and the widening in CMIP5 historical simulations with all forcings is ～0.17o0.06o per decade. Similar to that in CMIP3, the simulated poleward expansion in CMIP5 is much weaker than the observational reanalyses. In CMIP5 projection simulations for the 21st century, magnitudes of widening of the Hadley circulation increase with radiative forcing. For the extreme projected radiative forcing of RCP8.5, the total annual-mean widening of the Hadley circulation is ～0.27o0.04o(10 yr)-1 in the 21st century. Although CMIP5 underestimates observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation, the results of this study suggest that the observed trends in the width of the Hadley circulation are caused by anthropogenic forcing and that increasing GHGs play an important role in the observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation, in addition to other forcings emphasized in previous studies.     

Processing of oxidised nitrogen compounds by passage through winter-time orographic cloud

Four case studies are described, from a three-site field experiment in October/November 1991 using the Great Dun Fell flow-through reactor hill cap cloud in rural Northern England. Measurements of total odd-nitrogen nitrogen oxides (NO _y ) made on either side of the hill, before and after the air flowed through the cloud, showed that 10 to 50% of the NO _y , called NO _z , was neither NO nor NO₂. This NO _z failed to exhibit a diurnal variation and was often higher after passage through cloud than before. No evidence of conversion of NO _z to NO₃ ^- in cloud was found. A simple box model of gas-phase chemistry in air before it reached the cloud, including scavenging of NO₃ and N₂O₅ by aerosol of surface area proportional to the NO₂ mixing ratio, shows that NO₃ and N₂O₅ may build up in the boundary layer by night only if stable stratification insulates the air from emissions of NO. This may explain the lack of evidence for N₂O₅ forming NO₃ ^- in cloud under well-mixed conditions in 1991, in contrast with observations under stably stratified conditions during previous experiments when evidence of N₂O₅ was found. Inside the cloud, some variations in the calculated total atmospheric loading of HNO₂ and the cloud liquid water content were related to each other. Also, indications of conversion of NO _x to NO _z were found. To explain these observations, scavenging of NO _x and HNO₂ by cloud droplets and/or aqueous-phase oxidation of NO₂ ^- by nitrate radicals are considered. When cloud acidity was being produced by aqueous-phase oxidation of NO _x or SO₂, NO₃ ^- which had entered the cloud as aerosol particles was liberated as HNO₃ vapour. When no aqueous-phase production of acidity was occurring, the reverse, conversion of scavenged HNO₃ to particulate NO₃ ^-, was observed.     

中尺度模式和新一代天气雷达产品识别云降水方法

介绍一种结合中尺度模式产品和新一代天气雷达产品的云降水识别方法。首先利用中尺度模式(MM5)产品计算得到降水潜力区识别因子,分析降水潜力区。进一步结合新一代天气雷达产品,分析潜力区内云团的降水参数,确定有利于降水的云团。分析结果表明,潜力综合指标对未来可能出现的具有大量水资源的对流性系统具有指示意义,可以用于分析对流性系统的降水潜力;另一方面雷达降水等级是对实际对流云团水资源等级的划分。综合这两者进行降水潜力的分析判别,可以增强降水云的识别能力。     

Kinetics of the Gas-Phase Reactions of OH Radicals, NO3 Radicals and O3 with Three C7-Carbonyls Formed From The Atmospheric Reactions of Myrcene, Ocimene and Terpinolene

Rate constants for the gas-phase reactions of OH radicals, NO₃ radicals and O₃ with the C₇-carbonyl compounds 4-methylenehex-5-enal [CH₂=CHC(=CH₂)CH₂CH₂CHO], (3Z)- and (3E)-4-methylhexa-3,5-dienal [CH₂=CHC(CH₃)=CHCH₂CHO] and 4-methylcyclohex-3-en-1-one, which are products of the atmospheric degradations of myrcene, Z- and E-ocimene and terpinolene, respectively, have been measured at 296 ± 2 K and atmospheric pressure of air using relative rate methods. The rate constants obtained (in cm³ molecule^–1 s^–1 units) were: for 4-methylenehex-5-enal, (1.55 ± 0.15) × 10^–10, (4.75 ± 0.35) × 10^–13 and (1.46 ± 0.12) × 10^–17 for the OH radical, NO₃ radical and O₃ reactions, respectively; for (3Z)-4-methylhexa-3,5-dienal: (1.61 ± 0.35) × 10^–10, (2.17 ± 0.30) × 10^–12, and (4.13 ± 0.81) × 10^–17 for the OH radical, NO₃ radical and O₃ reactions, respectively; for (3E)-4-methylhexa-3,5-dienal: (2.52 ± 0.65) × 10^–10, (1.75 ± 0.27) × 10^–12, and (5.36 ± 0.28) × 10^–17 for the OH radical, NO₃ radical and O₃ reactions, respectively; and for 4-methylcyclohex-3-en-1-one: (1.10 ± 0.19) × 10^–10, (1.81 ± 0.35) × 10^–12, and (6.98 ± 0.40) × 10^–17 for the OH radical, NO₃ radical and O₃ reactions, respectively. These carbonyl compounds are all reactive in the troposphere, with daytime reaction with the OH radical and nighttime reaction with the NO₃ radical being predicted to dominate as loss processes and with estimated lifetimes of about an hour or less.     

积云并合在强对流系统形成中的作用

利用中尺度非静力平衡模式（MM5V3）,模拟研究了积云并合过程在北京2001年8月23日一次产生强降水和冰雹对流天气形成中的作用。研究结果表明,积云并合在此次强中尺度对流系统（MCS）形成中有非常重要作用。整个形成过程经历了从单体并合、积云团并合和强中心并合的多尺度并合过程。首先,相邻孤立对流单体之间通过在中层形成云桥并合成为积云团,接着相邻积云团之间也通过中层云桥并合形成具有多个强中心的中尺度对流系统,最后,中尺度对流系统内强中心实现并合。而强中心并合过程伴随着强降水、大风等剧烈天气的产生。积云下沉气流对于积云并合有着重要作用,由强辐散出流形成的上升气流及与环境风相互作用有利于并合的形成和发展。并合过程导致云内上升－下沉气流增强,对流运动发展加强,有利于水汽转化,形成大量过冷云水和冰相粒子。大量冰晶和霰的形成有利于强降水的产生。     

云南冬季一次强降水天气过程的模拟与分析

利用MM5中尺度非静力模式对2003年1月5~6日发生在云南省的强降水天气过程进行了数值模拟分析。结果表明:(1)偏南低空急流是造成冬季暴雨的主要影响系统,低空急流上的扰动导致一个相对大的风速核从急流主体分裂东移,风速显著加大,风向呈气旋性弯曲,引起低层涡度增加,产生强的辐合上升运动。(2)低空急流的形成和移动与中层南支槽的关系较为密切,南支槽前的辐散为低空急流的形成提供了启动机制。(3)强降水天气出现在冷暖空气交汇的区域,锋生强迫作为暖湿气流上升的强迫机制之一,对强降水的形成起着不可忽视的作用。(4)水汽条件的分析表明,暴雨区的水汽主要由低层水汽辐合来提供。     

98.7湖北特大暴雨的天气分析与降水模拟

1998年7月20～23日，湖北省南部发生了一次持续性特大暴雨过程，采用双向嵌套的非静力中尺度数值模式(MM5)对这次强暴雨过程进行初步模拟试验。结果表明，粗、细网格均能较好地模拟出雨带的走向和变动以及武汉地区的暴雨中心，尤其是嵌套域(细网格)模拟的降水强度比粗网格有明显改进，和实际观测结果更接近；另外，对引发这次特大暴雨的对流层低层的中尺度系统也能够很好地模拟出来。