建立地震预警、地震报警和烈度速报综合系统的思考

如何减少地震灾害所引起的人员伤亡、次生灾害以及快速判断灾情以落实全面的防御观,是我国自汶川地震以来非常关注的问题.在建设我国地震烈度速报和预警系统的背景下,我们提出尽可能减少投资以改变传统模式、建设不需要专门观测房的监测系统,提高烈度速报和预警系统的监测点密度,实现地震预警、报警和烈度速报综合系统,为全社会提供更好的防...     

Assessing progress in MRV capacity development: experience with a scorecard approach

This article reports experiences gathered in 12 developing countries in Latin America and Africa with capacity development for national GHG inventory systems. The national systems and their ability to deliver on measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) requirements is assessed using a scorecard that covers the transparency, accuracy, completeness, consistency, and comparability of the GHG inventory as well as its institutional set-up and management aspects. The analysis shows that a quantitative assessment of GHG inventory systems with a scorecard is feasible and useful, and could commonly be used for tracking progress in MRV capacity development.

Policy relevance

A large number of capacity development initiatives are underway to advance national GHG inventory systems in developing countries, particularly in the land-use sector. These aim to promote the reliable MRV of GHG emissions and removals, which is expected to underpin developing countries’ contributions to global mitigation efforts, including through results-based payments. Although MRV is a cornerstone of climate change policy and despite widespread capacity gaps, there is little conclusive evidence about the effectiveness of such capacity development. This article relates the positive experience from one initiative, the Capacity Development for REDD+ project, which employed a novel, scorecard-based approach to results monitoring. Considerable progress is observed and provides reassurance regarding the soundness of development agencies’ significant investments in MRV. Disaggregating scores by countries and by underlying criteria also provides insights to prioritize further investments.     

Linkages between climate change and sustainable development

Abstract

Climate change does not yet feature prominently within the environmental or economic policy agendas of developing countries. Yet evidence shows that some of the most adverse effects of climate change will be in developing countries, where populations are most vulnerable and least likely to easily adapt to climate change, and that climate change will affect the potential for development in these countries. Some synergies already exist between climate change policies and the sustainable development agenda in developing countries, such as energy efficiency, renewable energy, transport and sustainable land-use policies. Despite limited attention from policy-makers to date, climate change policies could have significant ancillary benefits for the local environment. The reverse is also true as local and national policies to address congestion, air quality, access to energy services and energy diversity may also limit GHG emissions. Nevertheless there could be significant trade-offs associated with deeper levels of mitigation in some countries, for example where developing countries are dependent on indigenous coal and may be required to switch to cleaner yet more expensive fuels to limit emissions. The distributional impacts of such policies are an important determinant of their feasibility and need to be considered up-front. It follows that future agreements on mitigation and adaptation under the convention will need to recognise the diverse situations of developing countries with respect to their level of economic development, their vulnerability to climate change and their ability to adapt or mitigate. Recognition of how climate change is likely to influence other development priorities may be a first step toward building cost-effective strategies and integrated, institutional capacity in developing countries to respond to climate change. Opportunities may also exist in developing countries to use regional economic organisations to assist in the design of integrated responses and to exploit synergies between climate change and other policies such as those designed to combat desertification and preserve biodiversity.

© 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.     

Assessing the value of price caps and floors

This article assesses the long-term economic and climatic effects of introducing price caps and price floors in hypothetical global climate change mitigation policy. Based on emission trends, abatement costs and equilibrium climate sensitivity from IPCC and IEA reports, this quantitative analysis confirms that price caps could significantly reduce economic uncertainty. This uncertainty stems primarily from unpredictable economic growth and energy prices, and ultimately unabated emission trends. In addition, the development of abatement technologies is uncertain. Furthermore, this analysis shows that rigid targets may entail greater economic risks with little or no comparative advantage for the climate. More ambitious emission objectives, combined with price caps and price floors, could still entail significantly lower expected costs while driving similar, or even slightly better, climatic outcomes in probabilistic terms.     

Sustainable energy development and climate change in China

Abstract

This article analyses the national circumstances and major factors underpinning China's energy demand and supply, energy-related emissions, and consequently China's sustainable development. These factors include the huge, still growing, and aging population, rapid economic growth, ongoing industrialization and urbanization, environmental and health concerns at local, regional and global level. Against such background analysis, the article explores the potential and constraints of non-fossil fuel, fuel-switching to natural gas, economy restructuring and clean coal technology in mitigating emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and ensuring energy supply in China. The authors reiterate the importance of improving energy efficiency in China and discuss how to integrate renewable energy into rural development. The article concludes with an in-depth discussion about redefining development goals, the equity issue in climate change process, and the linkage with sustainable development.     

Process matters: building a future climate regime with multi-processes

How do current processes in international climate-related institutions affect the architecture of a future climate regime, particularly various international negotiating processes related to climate change? A plausible image of future climate regime is developed to address this question. Three plausible scenarios are described for the next decade using the scenario-planning approach. Based on this, the scope for an internationally acceptable climate regime beyond 2012 is developed. The current processes under the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol, and those outside the UN arena are encapsulated into three scenarios. Each scenario has a set of relatively preferable types of commitments, which differ from each other. Each process is likely to result in the establishment of one particular institution. Linkages are developed between the three institutions so that the climate regime as a whole will be environmentally effective. The three institutions are likely to converge in the long run, as countries' views on both climate change and a future climate regime converge.     

Safety culture and hazard risk perception of Australian and New Zealand maritime pilots

A survey of the safety culture and hazard risk perception has been carried out involving 77 maritime pilots around Australia and New Zealand, representing more than the 20% of the maritime pilots in each country, in proportional geographic distribution. In 82% of the cases, interviews were carried out face-to-face, based on a questionnaire designed to be completed in less than 1 hour. Questions on 4 different aspects were asked, relating to each pilot's professional background, safety culture and perception of risks, navigation and pilotage hazards and their perception of the pilot's role. The responses indicated that there are issues with regulator identification, commercial pressures on pilots in some locations, incident reporting mechanisms and feedback, training opportunities and improved bridge resource management. In addition to reviewing comments made by pilots, the paper also presents recommendations for consideration in improving operational performance and safety of navigation in ports and regulated waterways. These recommendations can be used by regulators to improve their performance concerning pilotage matters and understand pilots’ concerns.     

不同犯罪类型受害者报警行为特点及其影响因素分析

采用问卷调查数据,以理性选择理论为框架,对广州地区扒窃、诈骗、入室盗窃、暴力侵害四大犯罪类型受害者的报警行为进行了分析。研究发现,扒窃和诈骗的发生率较高,但报警率较低;入室盗窃和暴力侵害的发生率较低,但报警率较高。逻辑回归结果表明,损失的财产价值是影响扒窃、诈骗、入室盗窃、暴力侵害受害者报警行为的共同因素,损失越大,报警的可能性越大。此外,户口状态对扒窃报警行为有影响;入室盗窃和暴力侵害的报警行为还受个人客观属性和主观感知的影响。表明西方的理性选择理论框架适用于中国的报警率研究,但在选择具体的衡量指标时应更慎重;在对用公安部门的数据进行犯罪空间分析时,应注意报警率的影响。     

GHG mitigation of agricultural peatlands requires coherent policies

As soon as peat soil is drained for agricultural production, the peat starts to degrade, which causes emissions to the atmosphere. In countries with large peatland areas, the GHG mitigation potential related to management of these soils is often estimated as the highest amongst the measures available in agriculture. Although the facts are well known, the policies leading to diminished emissions are often difficult to implement. We have analysed the reasons why the mitigation potential is not fully utilized and what could be done better in national implementation of climate policies. Four cases are used to illustrate the necessary steps to reach mitigation targets: determining the amount and properties of peat soils, estimating the potential, costs and feasibility of the mitigation measures, and selecting and implementing the best measures. A common feature for all of the cases was that national and international climate policies have increased the public interest in GHG emissions from peat soils and increased the pressure for mitigation. Basically the same factors restrict the implementation of mitigation measures in all countries with significant peat soil areas. The most important of these is lack of policy coherence, e.g. ignoring climate policies when planning land use or agricultural policies. We conclude that GHG mitigation is achieved only if other policies, especially national regulations and strategies, are in line with climate policies.

Policy relevance

Agricultural peat soils could be used to help reach GHG mitigation goals in many countries, but the full potential of mitigation of peat soils is not used. Although peatland cultivation inevitably leads to loss of the whole peat layer and high emissions, there are few incentives or regulation to effectively minimize these losses. This article discusses the possibilities to reduce GHG emissions from agricultural peat soils, with specific emphasis on the barriers of implementing mitigation measures nationally. The lessons learned from the selected cases emphasize the role of all policy makers and their cooperation in planning coherent policies for achieving the goals determined by climate policies.     

A critical portrait of hate crime/incident reporting in North East England: The value of statistical data and the politics of recording in an age of austerity

This paper contributes to research on the reporting of hate crime/incidents from a critical socio-spatial perspective. It outlines an analysis of third party reporting of hate crimes/incidents in the North East of England, based upon the work of Arch (a third party hate crime/incident reporting system). The data set is one of the largest of its kind in the UK and therefore presents a unique opportunity to explore patterns of reporting across different types of hate crimes/incidents through a system designed to go beyond criminal justice responses. Whilst not downplaying the significance of the harmful experiences to which this data refers, we are very aware of the limitations of quantitative and de-humanised approaches to understanding forms of discrimination. Therefore the paper adopts a critical position, emphasising that interpretation of the data provides a partial, yet important, insight into everyday exclusions, but also cultures and politics of reporting. While the data records incidents across the main ‘monitored strands’, analysis here particularly focuses on those incidents recorded on the basis of ‘race’ and religion. Our analysis allows us to both cautiously consider the value of such data in understanding and addressing such damaging experiences - but also to appreciate how such an analysis may connect with the changing landscape of reporting and the politics of austerity.