The road to deforestation: An assessment of forest loss and its causes in Basho Valley, Northern Pakistan

Deforestation in the Himalayas is generally seen as caused primarily by population growth. Based on interviews and the analysis of satellite images, we critically examine this view using Basho Valley in the Western Himalayas of Pakistan as a case study. Our findings indicate that the forest of Basho has been reduced by at least 50% after the valley was opened up through the construction of a link road in 1968. Large-scale legal and illegal commercial harvesting was carried out after the construction of the road. While legal commercial harvesting was stopped in 1987, illegal harvesting has since continued with the involvement of the Forest Department. The findings of this study do not support theories in which deforestation is attributed to rapid population growth. Instead, mismanagement and illegal commercial harvesting endorsed by the Forest Department have been the main causes of deforestation in Basho Valley.     

Decentralization, forests and livelihoods: Theory and narrative

This paper discusses the theory of decentralized forest management, the associated narrative and the underlying hypotheses. That discussion informs the assessment of whether decentralization can lead to forest conservation. The paper argues that the ideal model of democratic decentralization described in the literature is unlikely to be implemented given the governance constraints present in many tropical forest countries. Even if that model could be implemented, it is shown that decentralization cannot be expected to necessarily lead to forest conservation. The policies required to complement the current decentralization model are discussed, including financial incentives and monitoring and evaluation mechanisms.     

Women participation in formal decision-making: Empirical evidence from participatory forest management in Ethiopia

Amid growing emphasis on community-based approaches to natural resource management, there are concerns about the lack of women participation in communal decision-making. We analyze the association between participation of women in decision-making of forest user groups in Ethiopia and several forest management outcomes. We combine longitudinal survey, administrative and forest inventory data and find that participation of women in executive committees (i.e., formal decision-making) is associated with greater forest benefits, and an improved (perceived and actual) condition of the forest. Alternatively, the association between women participation in group-level meetings and outcomes is not robust. This implies that women participation in formal decision-making is required to reach forest conservation and livelihood gains.     

Conditions influencing the adoption of effective anti-deforestation policies in South America’s commodity frontiers

Reducing large-scale deforestation in commodity frontiers remains a key challenge for climate change mitigation and the conservation of biodiversity. Public and private anti-deforestation policies have been shown to effectively reduce forest loss, but the conditions under which such policies get adopted are rarely examined. Here we propose a set of conditions that we expect to be associated with the adoption of effective anti-deforestation policies in commodity frontiers. We then examine whether these conditions have influenced policy adoption in South America’s major soy-and-cattle frontiers: the Brazilian Amazon, the Cerrado, the Chaco, the Chiquitano, and Paraguay’s Atlantic Forest. By collating empirical data from diverse sources, including literature review, extensive expert interviews, and analysis of primary and secondary data, we show that the Cerrado, the Chaco, and the Chiquitano differ from the Brazilian Amazon in multiple ways that might have inhibited adoptions of effective anti-deforestation instruments. These conditions include: a higher importance of the agricultural sector within the respective countries, lower carbon stocks and species richness, higher prevalence of private land tenure, and higher baseline compliance with forest reserve regulations on private lands. We also observe that the adoption of the most effective private anti-deforestation instrument, commodity moratoria, may respond to similar conditions as those influencing the adoption of public instruments. Incentivizing public and private actors to adopt effective anti-deforestation policies in the Cerrado, Chaco, and the Chiquitano will likely be more challenging than it has been in the Brazilian Amazon.     

两种空气质量数值模式的应用评估与集合改进研究

利用2018—2019年国控站观测,评估CAMx和CMAQ模式对广东珠海主要污染物时空分布与演变特征的预报能力,并引入多元线性回归和随机森林方法对预报结果进行集成,探究不同集合方法的改进能力。结果表明：CMAQ在各污染物浓度季节-日变化方面明显优于CAMx,但两者存在明显系统偏差,并对多数污染物(除O₃之外)的昼夜和空间变化的模拟能力仍存在明显缺陷。例如,CMAQ合理地还原了CO、PM_2.5、PM₁₀、SO₂、O₃和NO₂的季节变化,相关系数介于0.72～0.84,但NMB分别达到-0.58、-0.18、-0.30、1.52,-0.16和-0.20,RMSE分别达到0.40 mg/m³、6.86、16.02、10.71、25.05和10.21μg/m³。同时,基于不同污染物构建的两种集合方法均有效移除了系统偏差,加强了CMAQ的模拟优势,并且随机森林方法明显优于多元线性回归,但两者均对模式缺陷无明显改进。进一步分...     

基于机器学习方法的辽宁省初霜冻日期预测模型研究

基于前期ERA5逐月再分析数据,应用3种机器学习算法(Lasso回归、随机森林和神经网络)对辽宁省初霜冻日期进行预测评估。Lasso回归算法提取对初霜冻日期预测有重要指示意义的气象要素特征集,通过交叉验证和超参数调优建立初霜冻日期预测模型,利用均方根误差(RMSE)和距平同号率方法定量定性地评估模型的预测效果。结果表明：特征选择后的气象要素特征集建模提升了模型的泛化能力、可解释性和稳定性;Lasso回归模型在4月起报的预测效果最好(RMSE为6—8 d),神经网络模型在5月起报性能最好(RMSE为6—9 d),随机森林模型在3月起报性能最好(RMSE为8—9 d);辽宁全省大部分站点距平同号率为50%—70%,其中Lasso回归和神经网络模型为5月起报最高(约为68%),随机森林算法为3月起报最高(约为62%)。特征选择和敏感性实验结果发现,低植被覆盖比例是初霜冻日期预测关键预测因子,植被覆盖率越高越有利于地表含水量保持,降温容易产生霜冻,初霜冻日期也就越易提前,去掉低植被覆盖比例因子后模型预测效果显著下降,也表明该因子是模型建模的前期关键因子。     

基于神经网络的气象卫星影像森林火点自动识别的试验研究

森林火点的识别是利用气象卫星资料监测森林火灾的基础。传统的目视解译火点识别法难以实现计算机的自动识别,神经网络技术为解决这一问题提供了新的工具。作者探讨了应用神经网络实现气象卫星影像森林火点自动识别的技术方法,并在湖北省地理范围内进行了试验。试验结果显示,经过训练的神经网络能够记忆火点的特征,具备将森林火点从气象卫星影像中识别出来的能力。与目视解译法相比,神经网络方法的精度接近目视解译法,最重要的是实现了森林火点的自动识别。     

伏牛山南坡生态变化对降水的影响

利用1958～2000年有代表性的周边县树木增减资料、1984年10月～1986年9月树冠对降水的截流观测资料及1950～1999年西峡县山洪资料，分析了伏牛山南坡森林覆盖率对降水的影响，结果表明：森林覆盖率高的地区，平均年雨量值大；林区树冠和植被对降水的截流率在60％以上，植被越好，树林郁闭越大，山地的山洪和水土流失就越小，不但可减轻洪水灾害，而且蓄水于地下，以丰补欠，调节林区水分供应；西峡县因森林覆盖率的降低，山洪次数增加。因此，应治山造林，绿化荒山。     

A soil acidification study using the PROFILE model on two contrasting regions in Switzerland

The steady-state soil chemistry model PROFILE was used to calculate the chemical status of forest soils under present deposition loads for two areas with dissimilar ecosystem properties. Two regions in Switzerland, with contrasting bedrock geology were selected to be investigated in detail: 88 locations in the Jura Mountains, representative for carbonate bedrock and 91 locations in the Ticino Area dominated by metamorphic crystalline host rocks. Weathering rates calculated for the key regions cover the tremendous range between 0.013 and 25 keq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. In the Ticino Area, the effect of increased abundance of relatively fast weathering silicates (epidote, hornblende and plagioclase) on the weathering rate is apparently masked by the total effects of the physical conditions applied and by the variation in the deposition load. In the Jura Mountains, generally high weathering rates occur with about 50% of the sites yielding rates above 1 keq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. In many of the sites investigated, however, carbonates have already been dissolved completely in the soil horizons of interest resulting in very low weathering rates. The critical load of actual acidity was calculated according to: CL_Acidity=R_Weathering−ANC_Leaching, where alkalinity leaching is estimated by keeping the base cation to aluminum molar ratio at the critical limit of 1 at steady-state. The minimum critical load calculated was 0.2 keq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ and the maximum was 6.2 keq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. Comparing the cumulative frequency distributions of critical loads of actual acidity for forest soils in the individual areas it can be seen that the differences between the key regions are less substantial than with the weathering rates. Critical loads of acidity for the Ticino Area range from 1 to 3.9 keq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. Sites yielding the lowest critical loads of acidity are observed in the Jura Mountains. Among these apparent sensitive soils are soils with intermediate or high weathering rates, although it has depleted topsoil layers. Within the context of this model application, it becomes apparent that the sensitivity of these soils with respect to acidification is also governed by the alkalinity leaching term and not only by the susceptibility of its minerals to weathering.     

Eroding battlefields: Land degradation in Java reconsidered

Land degradation has been a major political issue in Java for decades. Its causes have generally been framed by narratives focussing on farmers’ unsustainable cultivation practices. This paper causally links land degradation with struggles over natural resources in Central Java. It presents a case study that was part of a research project combining remote sensing and political ecology to explore land use/cover change and its drivers in the catchment of the Segara Anakan lagoon. Historically rooted land conflicts have turned the land into a political battlefield, with soil erosion being the direct outcome of the political struggles. Starting from an analysis of environmental changes using satellite images and historical maps, the research explored a history of violent displacements in the frame of a series of brutal insurgencies and counterinsurgencies in the 1950/60s. In these struggles over national political power, entire villages were erased, and peasants’ land was appropriated by the state. This political history is ‘inscribed’ in today’s landscape. The contested land comprises some of the most erosion-prone sites in the entire catchment of the lagoon. The landscape of erosion is a landscape of conflict and a symbol of historical violence and injustice. In line with our research in other parts of the catchment, the case study presented here challenges dominant political discourses about the nature of upland degradation in Java. It provides insight into still unresolved and underexplored chapters of Indonesian history and presents a strong plea for combining land use change science and (historical) political ecology.