降水集中度的变化特征及影响因素分析——以山西为例

基于山西14个站点1957—2014年逐日降水资料,计算年尺度与多年尺度下的降水集中指数（CI）和极端降水指数（R_95p和R_99p),利用统计方法,研究了山西降水集中度的时空变化和影响因素。结果表明,CI值与R_99p显著正相关,CI值增大则发生极端强降水几率增大。多年尺度CI值体现出明显的纬度地带性和较大的局地空间差异。受温带大陆性季风气候控制,山西省降水CI值介于0.59~0.64,相对亚热带地区较小,且变化范围较小。总体上年尺度CI值呈下降趋势,五台山、右玉、五寨、运城等站点下降趋势显著。盆地区域较高山高原区的CI值更大且下降趋势不显著,更易于发生极端降水事件。较高的高程和较大的变幅可增强高程对CI值的影响。太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）与年尺度CI值显著负相关。PDO冷位相时期,西太平洋副高西进、偏强,CI值偏高,发生极端强降水的可能性增大。本研究揭示了自然地理条件和海-气相互作用对区域尺度降水集中度存在复杂的影响。     

江苏省城市专业气象服务系统

本文系统介绍了城市专业气象服务系统的设计思路、流程、功能特征和采用的Internet／Intranet（WWW）技术、Asp语言动态页面设计、自动化语音合成等技术,实现了Novell网、NT、9210网（气象卫星综合应用业务系统）、地面气象专线等联结采集实时气象信息和预报信息。系统具有应用、推广价值。     

关于建立测绘技术进步指标体系框架的探讨

本文从技术进步的基本理论出发,结合测绘生产单位的实际情况,研究和探讨如何在测绘系统内建立测绘技术进步指标体系的一些框架内容。希望对测绘管理和规划部门有所帮助。     

Deep-Sea Sediment Compression Curves: Some Controlling Factors, Spurious Overconsolidation, Predictions, and Geophysical Reproduction

Oedometer tests have been carried out on 70 undisturbed surficial clays (at approximately 250 mm below the mudline), mostly collected by free-fall corers from sites widely scattered throughout the deep-sea North Atlantic. Acoustic measurements were also made, initially on contiguous samples and ultimately on the same sample using a geophysically instrumented oedometer which also collected electrical resistivity data. Apart from those quiescent areas below the carbonate compensation depth, such as north of the West Indies where very fine clays exist, most of the samples are silty clays whose geotechnical-geophysical properties are dependent on the type of clay minerals present (and their ability to take in moisture), the sand-size fraction, and the quantity of carbonate present. Thus the pure clays have high compressibilities which decrease on the addition of coarse particles, while the converse is true for the acoustic parameters, these increasing with the sand fraction. Using the notion of the intrinsic compression line for all samples, and comparison to it of the measured compression curves, it is clear that, contrary to some previously held ideas, most deep-sea clays are normally consolidated; the addition of carbonate has the effect of creating an open, stronger sediment skeleton. Interestingly, where information is available, the variation with depth of a sample's acoustic velocity follows the void ratio pressure relationship of the compression curve. This allows the construction of an in-situ sediment compression curve using the in-situ geophysical observations.     

Long-term changes in copepods assemblages in the area of the Danube floodplain (Slovak–Hungarian stretch)

The present study investigates the relationship between hydrological connectivity and species diversity in a by-passed channel section, and in the adjacent water bodies of the Slovak–Hungarian Danube section (1,840.5–1,804.4 rkm). The study was designed to assess long-term temporal trends (from 1991 to 2013) in freshwater copepods assemblages and their ecological indices in different habitats of the Danube floodplain area. One of the purpose of this study was to monitor the species composition of copepods communities and ascertain their shift in various biotopes of the Danube floodplain system. Based on 23 years data, in the first step, the copepods habitat preferences using habitat values (HV) and indicator weights (IW), calculated from data collected over all the years of monitoring of planktonic communities of the Danube floodplain, were quantified. Subsequently, the floodplain index (FI) from a summary of the habitat values and indication weights of the current species was calculated, to evaluate changes in the connectivity of the anabranched section of the Slovak–Hungarian Danube. This confirmed the loss of active hydrological connectivity within the main river channel, ranging from the eupotamal to more or less isolated floodplain water bodies. Out of 50 recorded copepods species, 11 species manifest a preference for eupotamal habitats, 18 taxa preferred eupotamal B/parapotamal habitats and 21 species were found to prefer the plesiopotamal habitat type. The statistical analyses demonstrated that the structure of planktonic copepod communities in this area has changed since the Gabčíkovo hydropower plant was placed into operations. The NMDS analysis revealed shifts in the proportion of euplanktonic and tychoplanktonic species. Reversible community changes were found in the old river bed and in the eupotamal-B side arms.     

遥感数据产品真实性检验不确定性分析研究进展

不确定性分析是遥感产品真实性检验最重要的部分,本文以叶面积指数LAI为例,从测量、模型以及蕴含在测量和模型中的尺度效应3个方面分析产品真实性检验过程的不确定性来源,并针对问题提出减小其不确定性的办法。对于相对均一的地表,地面测量的空间代表性比较好,可不考虑地表空间代表性引起的尺度效应和蕴含在模型中的尺度效应引起的不确定性。针对异质性地表,分为两种情况:若模型是线性的,蕴含在模型中的尺度效应可以忽略,只需要考虑测量的不确定性、模型本身的不确定性、以及地面测量的空间代表性引起的尺度效应;若模型是非线性的,则测量、模型和蕴含在测量和模型中的尺度效应引起的不确定性都需要考虑。     

Illumination effects on the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio's optimality for assessing fire severity

The influence of illumination effects on the optimality of the dNBR (differenced Normalized Burn Ratio) was evaluated for the case of the 2007 Peloponnese (Greece) wildfires using a pre/post-fire Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper) image couple. Well-illuminated pixels (south and south-east facing slopes) exhibited more optimal displacements in the bi-spectral feature space than more shaded pixels (north and north-west exposed slopes). Moreover, pixels experiencing a small image-to-image difference in illumination obtained a higher optimality than pixels with a relatively large difference in illumination. To correct for illumination effects, the c-correction method and a modified c-correction technique were applied. The resulting median dNBR optimality of uncorrected, c-corrected and modified c-correction data was respectively 0.58, 0.60 and 0.71 (differences significant for p < 0.001). The original c-correction method improved the optimality of badly illuminated pixels while deteriorating the optimality of well-illuminated pixels. In contrast, the modified c-correction technique improved the optimality of all the pixels while retaining the prime characteristic of topographic correction techniques, i.e. detrending the illumination–reflectance relationship. For a minority of the data, for shaded pixels and/or pixels with a high image-to-image difference in illumination, the original c-correction outperformed the modified c-correction technique. In this study conducted in rugged terrain and with a bi-temporal image acquisition scheme that deviated up to two months from the ideal anniversary date scheme the modified c-correction technique resulted in a more reliable change detection.     

珠江口盆地荔湾凹陷上渐新统—早中新统物源特征及其对沉积充填的影响

利用化学蚀变指数法恢复物源区的风化历史及沉积物通量是一种经济实用、行之有效的方法。前人对珠江口盆地荔湾凹陷对应物源区的研究相对薄弱。本文通过对区内岩心测试数据进行化学蚀变指数分析,恢复晚渐新世—早中新世物源区的风化历史,并进行沉积物通量的估算,在此基础上探讨物源特征对研究区内沉积充填的控制作用。研究表明,晚渐新世研究区对应物源区经历了强烈风化阶段,该阶段产生的丰富的沉积物供给是研究区西北部快速进积、规模壮观的陆架边缘三角洲及斜坡重力流沉积体系发育的重要控制因素之一;早中新世,西北物源区风化减弱,沉积供给减少,但研究区东部沉积物供应较西部要充分得多,表明早中新世,研究区南部除了来自西北部的主要物源外,局部物源对该时期的沉积具有重要影响;推测东部物源(东部古隆起、兴宁古隆起)的突然复活是促进研究区东部早中新世沟槽形成发育的重要原因之一。在超深水区进行沉积物源区的研究中,这种半定量的方法对盆内局部物源的确定具有重要的指示意义。     

浙江仙居县漂流旅游的气候影响因素探讨

采用仙居县漂流旅游项目营业开始迄今的客流量和同期的降水、相对湿度、风速和气温等气象资料对仙居县永安溪漂流的气候影响因素进行了研究。分析了当地的人体舒适度指标,统计了月平均舒适天数,同时探讨了降水和高温的影响,得出适宜的气候条件,计算了各指标的距乎百分率,并与客流变化作对比分析。结果表明：5月和10月气候适宜且旅游流量高;4月、7月和9月也为适宜时段,但客流量少,旅游资源有待进一步挖掘。     

内蒙古东南部地区夏季旱涝的环流特征分析及预测

主要从与内蒙古东南部地区(指赤峰市和通辽市)夏季旱涝关系密切的西太平洋副高、亚洲地区环流和蒙古冷涡三个主要的天气系统入手,分析旱涝年的环流差异。结果表明:⑴夏季蒙古冷涡偏多、副热带高压偏强和北半球盛行经向环流,是造成夏季降水偏多的主要环流形势;⑵冬季北半球极涡纬度和亚洲地区的环流指数对夏季环流形势有一定的指示意义;二者相互动态地影响了夏季旱涝,据此建立夏季旱涝预测模型。经过1995—2008年14年的实际应用,趋势准确率为85.7%。