模糊数学在预测大孤山铁矿深部涌水量中的应用

大孤山铁矿为露采矿山,其排水量的预测始终存在着计算过程复杂、矿坑充水因素多的困扰。文章以模糊数学理论为基础、应用现有矿山水文地质资料,对矿区深部涌水量进行了预测计算,其计算结果比较理想。     

山东省苍山县土山铁矿矿床水文地质特征

苍山县土山地区赋存沉积变质型铁矿,是以裂隙岩溶为主的水文地质条件中等的充水矿床。该文详细论述了土山铁矿床的水文地质特征,划分了矿床主要含水岩组,对其充水条件进行了分析。确定水文地质单元边界条件模型,采用水平坑道涌水量计算公式对坑道各水平涌水量预测。为铁矿设计和开采提供了较为详尽的技术资料。     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987113001072

The late Permian Emeishan large igneous province(ELIP) covers ~0.3 x 106 km2 of the western margin of the Yangtze Block and Tibetan Plateau with displaced,correlative units in northern Vietnam(Song Da zone).The ELIP is of particular interest because it contains numerous world-class base metal deposits and is contemporaneous with the late Capitanian(~260 Ma) mass extinction.The flood basalts are the signature feature of the ELIP but there are also ultramafic and silicic volcanic rocks and layered maficultramafic and silicic plutonic rocks exposed.The ELIP is divided into three nearly concentric zones(i.e.inner,middle and outer) which correspond to progressively thicker crust from the inner to the outer zone.The eruptive age of the ELIP is constrained by geological,paleomagnetic and geochronological evidence to an interval of 3 Ma.The presence of picritic rocks and thick piles of flood basalts testifies to high temperature thermal regime however there is uncertainty as to whether these magmas were derived from the subcontinental lithospheric mantle or sub-lithospheric mantle(i.e.asthenosphere or mantle plume) sources or both.The range of Sr(I_(Sr) = 0.7040-0.7132),Nd(ε_(Nd)(t) ≈-14 to +8),Pb(~(206)Pb/~(204)Pb_1≈ 17.9-20.6) and Os(γ_(Os) =-5 to +11) isotope values of the ultramafic and mafic rocks does not permit a conclusive answer to ultimate source origin of the primitive rocks but it is clear that some rocks were affected by crustal contamination and the presence of near-depleted isotope compositions suggests that there is a sub-lithospheric mantle component in the system.The silicic rocks are derived by basaltic magmas/rocks through fractional crystallization or partial melting,crustal melting or by interactions between mafic and crustal melts.The formation of the Fe-Ti-V oxide-ore deposits is probably due to a combination of fractional crystallization of Ti-rich basalt and fluxing of C02-rich fluids whereas the Ni-Cu-(PGE) deposits are related to crystallization and crustal contamination of mafic or ultramafic magmas with subsequent segregation of a sulphide-rich portion.The ELIP is considered to be a mantle plume-derived LIP however the primary evidence for such a model is less convincing(e.g.uplift and geochemistry) and is far more complicated than previously suggested but is likely to be derived from a relatively short-lived,plume-like upwelling of mantle-derived magmas.The emplacement of the ELIP may have adversely affected the short-term environmental conditions and contributed to the decline in biota during the late Capitanian.     

基于贝叶斯理论的水文不确定性分析研究进展

水文过程受众多自然和人为因素影响,决定了其变化的极端复杂性,表现为确定性的动态规律与不确定性的统计规律共存。水文不确定性分析的理论和方法在认识水文规律中发挥着重要作用,其中贝叶斯作为一种主要理论方法在水文水资源相关问题的研究中得到了较广泛的应用。本文评述了贝叶斯理论在水文频率分析、水文预报、确定性和不确定性方法耦合等研究中的进展,对基于贝叶斯理论的水文不确定性重点研究内容进行了展望。     

青藏高原冬春季积雪异常与西南地区夏季降水的关系

选取1961-2007年青藏高原冬、春季积雪日数资料和西南地区夏季降水资料,对高原积雪和降水作奇异值分解(SVD)分析.结果表明:冬春季高原积雪对西南地区夏季旱涝有重要的影响.冬、春季高原积雪的不同分布将造成后期西南地区夏季降水分布出现差异.西南地区夏季降水对冬季高原积雪异常最敏感的区域主要是四川东北部、重庆、西藏中西部,对春季积雪异常最敏感的区域主要位于四川东部、重庆、贵州东北部,以及西藏中东部.与降水敏感区相对应的冬季高原积雪分布的关键区是西藏中西部和青海中南部至四川西北部地区,春季则转变为西藏西部和青海部分地区.总的来说,冬季高原积雪的异常变化比春季对西南地区夏季降水的影响更为明显.因此,前期青藏高原积雪是西南地区夏季降水预测中的一个重要信号,对夏季西南地区降水有一定的指示和预测意义;冬季高原积雪日数尤其具有预报指示意义,可作为一个重要的预测指标.     

Simulating the value of El Niño forecasts for the Panama Canal

The Panama Canal relies on rain-fed streamflow into Gatun Lake, the canal’s primary storage facility, for operations—principally ship passage and hydropower generation. Precipitation in much of Panama has a strong negative relationship with eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and this relationship is reflected in Gatun Lake inflows. For example, the correlation coefficient between wet season (July–December) inflow and NINO3 SST is −0.53 over the period 1914–1997. Operational capabilities to predict tropical Pacific SSTs have been demonstrated by several forecast systems during the past decade, and (as we show) such SST forecasts can be used to reduce the uncertainty of estimates of future inflows (compared with climatological expectations). Because substantial reductions in lake inflow negatively impact canal operations, we wondered whether these forecasts of future inflows, coupled with a method for translating that information into effective operational policy, might result in more efficient canal management. A combined simulation/optimization/assessment “virtual” canal system was implemented and exercised using operational El Niño forecasts over the period 1981–1998. The results show the following main points:

(i)

At current demand levels, the canal system is relatively robust (insensitive to flow forecasts) unless flows are substantially reduced (i.e., during El Niño episodes) or forecasts are extremely accurate.     

点云数据直接缩减方法及缩减效果研究

分析了国外点云数据处理中数据缩减方法的研究现状,针对实际工程中三维激光扫描数据采集的过密情况,提出利用扫描间隔进行点云数据直接缩减的方法,并编程实现所提出的算法。通过对真实的三维激光扫描点云数据的缩减处理,建立点云数据直接缩减的预测模型。     

中国"代"尺度气候预测

将子波分析技术与随机动力学相结合,提出了突变点数建模代尺度气候预测新技术—突变点数建模技术,并将该技术应用于中国不同地区代尺度的干湿驰豫时间的预报。研究结果表明,在代尺度上,我国北方、西南和东南气候灾害频繁,南方多涝,西北和北方(不包括东北)则多旱。由于该技术是关于时间序列建模的,故可以应用到水文、地震、生态等领域有关的建模和预测。     

Application of wavelet‐based multi‐model Kalman filters to real‐time flood forecasting

This paper presents the application of a multimodel method using a wavelet‐based Kalman filter (WKF) bank to simultaneously estimate decomposed state variables and unknown parameters for real‐time flood forecasting. Applying the Haar wavelet transform alters the state vector and input vector of the state space. In this way, an overall detail plus approximation describes each new state vector and input vector, which allows the WKF to simultaneously estimate and decompose state variables. The wavelet‐based multimodel Kalman filter (WMKF) is a multimodel Kalman filter (MKF), in which the Kalman filter has been substituted for a WKF. The WMKF then obtains M estimated state vectors. Next, the M state‐estimates, each of which is weighted by its possibility that is also determined on‐line, are combined to form an optimal estimate. Validations conducted for the Wu‐Tu watershed, a small watershed in Taiwan, have demonstrated that the method is effective because of the decomposition of wavelet transform, the adaptation of the time‐varying Kalman filter and the characteristics of the multimodel method. Validation results also reveal that the resulting method enhances the accuracy of the runoff prediction of the rainfall–runoff process in the Wu‐Tu watershed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

累加阶层线性模型的长三角地区年降雨量预测

将灰色系统模型与阶层线性模型的思想和方法结合起来,拓展了模型的适用范围,给出了累加阶层线性AMM(1,1)模型,并在结合长三角年降雨量的具体实例时进行了模型改进.对原模型与改进后的AMM(1,1)进行比较,验证了模型的实用性,为降雨量的预测提供了一种新途径.