西藏羊八井地区太阳短波辐照度特征及其短期预测模型对比分析

本研究利用西藏羊八井太阳短波辐照度观测数据分析了该地区2020—2021年的辐射时间序列分布特征,基于时间序列分析、随机森林（Random Forest,RF）和Prophet进行建模预测,通过对比研究探究三种模型在该地区的适用性以及提高模型预测精度的方法.结果表明：该地区短波太阳辐照度呈双峰倒U型分布的月变化和单峰倒U型分布的日变化特征.RF在选用模型中最优,其标准化均方根误差（Normalized Root Mean Square Error,NRMSE）、决定系数R2分别为17.54%和0.962.小波变换去噪能提高各模型预测精度,NRMSE降低4.82%~12.94%.组合模型能提高预测精度,误差倒数权重组合模型的NRMSE较差分自回归滑动平均模型（Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average,ARIMA）和Prophet分别下降35.22%、25.12%.预测时间步长差异也会影响预测效果,模型的预测误差随时间步长逐渐增大而减小.因此,可利用RF等机器学习模型在西藏地区进行太阳辐照度短期预测,通过小波变换、组合模型、预测时间步长等环节提高预测精度,以满足当地光伏发电对太阳辐照度的预测需求.     

Carbon Isotopic Evolution Characteristics and the Geological Significance of the Permian Carbonate Stratotype Section in the Northern Upper-Yangtze Region, Southern China

The Permian global mass extinction events and the eruption of the Emeishan flood basalts in the Upper Yangtze region should display certain responses during the evolution of carbon isotope. In this paper, the Permian carbon isotopic evolution in the Upper Yangtze region is examined through systematic stratotype section sampling and determination of 13C in the northern Upper-Yangtze regions and Southern China. Additionally, the carbon isotopic evolution response characteristics of the geological events in the region are evaluated, comparing the sea-level changes in the Upper Yangtze region and the global sea-level change curves. Results of this study indicated that the carbon isotopic curves of the Permian in the Upper Yangtze region are characterized by higher background carbon-isotope baseline values, with three distinct negative excursions, which are located at the Middle–Late Permian boundary and the late period and end of the Late Permian. The three distinct negative excursions provide an insightful record of the global Permian mass extinction events and the eruption of the Emeishan flood basalts in the Upper Yangtze region. The first negative excursion at the Middle–Late Permian boundary reflected the eruption of the Emeishan flood basalts, a decrease in sea level, and biological extinction events of different genera in varying degrees. The second negative excursion in the Late Permian included a decrease in sea level and large-scale biological replacement events. The third negative excursion of the carbon isotope at the end of the Permian corresponded unusually to a rise rather than a decrease in sea level, and it revealed the largest biological mass extinction event in history.     

矿井水情监测与水害风险预警平台设计与实现

任何矿井水害事故均会显现不同的预兆,为夯实水害智能预警基础,明晰了感知、辨识、评估、预测及相互逻辑关系的系统建设内涵,针对不同水害类型,根据其突水机理不同,设计三大类多模式水害典型场景,建立相应突水判据,提出了确定性理论精确预测与包括大数据及深度学习在内的非确定性趋势推测两类预测方法,为智能预警系统的预测预报、预警准则及阈值设置奠定理论基础。以陕西省彬长矿区亭南矿为例,建立了动态信息、静态信息及关联信息的指标体系,将地面水文动态监测单元、井下水情环境监测单元以及采掘工作面采动动态监测单元集成,构建原位采集和突水要素预兆感知系统,实施基于关键层电性参数动态监测、关键部位单点或多点多参数监测联合布置的突水前兆信息精准获取方案,采用确定性模拟模型和非确定性智能模型,实现水害预测预警功能,基于多源数据融合和空间联动分析技术,预警系统实现了井上下全空间水害风险预警“一张图”的可视化展示。实践表明,监测预警平台理论基础扎实,预测预警效果显著。     

Emeishan large igneous province, SW China

In recent years, there have been major advances in our understanding of the Emeishan large igneous province (LIP) of SW China following publication of a number of LIP-focused investigations of the terrain and associated rocks. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge. The volcanic and upper-intrusive portion of the province is relatively small (0.3×10⁶ km³), even when offset fragments, eroded sections and buried portions are included in the volume calculation. The most reliable radiometric age dates (zircon U–Pb SHRIMP from an associated layered intrusive body several kilometers in area) indicate generation at 259 Ma, consistent with the end-Guadalupian (end Middle Permian) stratigraphic age. In addition, several Ar–Ar dating studies have been carried out, mainly on the volcanic rocks, with a number of reported dates 253–251 Ma (Late Permian), but a consensus is emerging that these ages are problematic because they are in conflict with the stratigraphic data (possibly due to a monitor standard miscalibration). The Ar–Ar investigations have also yielded a large number of secondary ages, which are clustered at 175, 142, 98 and 42 Ma, and these are inferred to record sub-regional tectonic events that affected the western Yangtze Block as East Asia was assembled and later deformed by India’s collision–indentation into Asia. Magnetostratigraphic data and field observations suggest that the bulk of the volcanic sequence formed within 1–2 my. The geochemistry of the volcanic rocks and bio-lithostratigraphic studies of the underlying Maokou Formation suggests a mantle plume generated the province. The basalts can be classified into low and high Ti groups with different parental magmas. The low Ti basalts are confined to the western part of the province and are overlain by the high Ti basalts. The low Ti magmas formed at shallow mantle depths in the spinel–garnet field transition zone (60–80 km), whereas the high Ti magmas formed by low degrees of partial melting within the deeper garnet stability field. This observation suggests a deepening of the melting column as the lithosphere thickened due to under-plating and a transition from peak basalt generation to the waning stage. Outstanding issues, which might focus future studies, are also outlined.     

河北模型在岩溶地区洪水预报中的应用

岩溶地区有许多不闭合流域,其洪水预报问题较为特殊。将河北模型用于河北省的岩溶地区,取得了较好的效果。     

攀西地区水系沉积物铂、钯地球化学异常特征及找矿远景预测

水系沉积物地球化学测量表明,攀枝花-西昌地区存在一个与峨眉山玄武岩分布范围基本吻合的P t,Pd区域地球化学异常,玄武岩中铂族元素丰度值普遍较高是一种正常的高背景现象,而峨眉山玄武岩中P t,Pd严重亏损或正异常显著的局部地区则显示出一定程度的成矿潜力。研究根据水系沉积物下伏基岩性质的不同,确定了不同地层单元和侵入岩类的P t,Pd背景值和异常下限,在研究区圈出多处P t,Pd衬值异常。结合有关铂族矿床以及同源玄武岩地球化学特征的认识,通过对水系沉积物P t,Pd综合异常的筛选,初步优选出铂族元素找矿远景区10个。     

Flood delineation in a large and complex alluvial valley, lower Pa´nuco basin, Mexico

Determining the extent of flooding is an important role of the hydrological research community and provides a vital service to planners and engineers. For large river systems located within distant settings it is practical to utilize a remote sensing approach. This study combines a remote sensing and geomorphic approach to delineate the extent of a large hurricane generated flood event in the lower Pánuco basin (98,227 km²), the seventh largest river system draining into the Gulf of Mexico. The lower Pánuco basin is located within the coastal plain of eastern Mexico and has a complex alluvial valley. Data sources included a Landsat 5TM and Landsat 7ETM⁺ scene, and topographic and particle size data from fieldwork and laboratory analysis. The Landsat 5TM image was acquired after the peak of a large flood event in 1993, whereas the Landsat 7ETM⁺ scene was acquired during the dry season in 2000. The increasing number of days between flood crest and the date of flood image acquisition along the river valley provided the opportunity to examine several methods of flood delineation and to consider differences in floodplain geomorphology. Backswamp environments were easily delineated in flooded reaches within the Panuco and Tamuin valleys, whereas in the Moctezuma valley more sophisticated methods were required because of the greater time between image acquisition and flood peak, and the complex floodplain topography. This included Principal Component (PC) analysis and image classification. Within the floodplain, residual Holocene terraces complicated flood mapping. Classification of both images allowed consideration of the influence of permanent standing water. Although the flooded areas were greater in the lower reaches of the study area, because this portion of the valley contained large floodplain lakes, the amount of inundation was actually lower. Remote sensing offers the ability to examine large alluvial valleys in distant settings but does not imply that geomorphic criteria should be excluded. Indeed, because of heterogeneous floodplain topography this study illustrates the importance of including field based geomorphic analysis so that the complexity of distinct floodplain environments are considered. The findings from this study are significant because most remote sensing data obtained for the purpose of flood mapping will not coincide with the flood crest. Thus, this study provides an appropriate method for mapping flood inundation in large and complex floodplain settings after flood crest recession.     

我国单站旱涝指标确定和区域旱涝级别划分的研究

根据1951～1995年各月降水资料，在全国选取8个代表站，测试了3种单站旱涝指标，并作了相互比较，认为Z指数方法最优。在此基础上，以华北地区为例，选取80个站点，探讨了能反映区域旱涝时空分布和强度的区域旱涝指标以及旱涝等级。     

Catastrophic flood effects in alpine/foothill fluvial system (a case study from the Sudetes Mts, SW Poland)

Depositional effects of two great floods in the Nysa drainage basin have been studied: the alluvial forms and deposits of channels and floodplains. Three types of bars and one overbank form were found in the mountain streams, and four types of bars and three types of overbank forms have been distinguished in main rivers. A specific spatial succession of depositional forms was recognized along the mountain streams, however, no analogous phenomena were noted within the main river valleys. Several types of bars and alluvial lithofacies have been regarded as characteristic effects of the catastrophic flood. The study indicates that the Nysa river is close to the threshold of metamorphosis to a typical braided fluvial system.     

我国水文情报预报工作的主要成就及展望

新中国成立５０年来,水文情报预报工作取得了成就,在水情信息采集和传输方面,全国已有水文报汛站８０００余处,在２５处重点防洪河段和１５０座大型水库上建立了水文自动测报系统,共计有遥测站近２０００个,已有２２个省（市,区）和７个流域管理机构的水情部门通过计算机广域网互传水情信息。在水文预报技术方面,开发研制了适合中国特色的许多水文模型。随着计算机的广泛应用,水利信息中心初步建立了水雨情信息服务系统,包