Entropy estimation of hydrological extremes

The method of Relative Entropy with Fractile constraints (REF method) is explained and applied to model extreme compound hydrological phenomena, such as extreme sea levels under storm conditions. Also presented is a simple method of Tail Entropy Approximation (TEA), which amounts to a correction of traditional statistical estimates for extreme observations.Distribution assumptions are necessary but downplayed in the REF method, relegating the prior distribution to the role of an extrapolation function. The estimates are objective in an information-theoretical sense. They also satisfy a strict requirement of self-consistency that is generally not satisfied by standard statistical methods: invariance under monotonic transformations of the random variable.Historical records of storm surge levels in the Netherlands and annual maximum tidal heights for Sheerness, UK, are used as examples. Comparison is made with distributions obtained using other methods.It is concluded that the tail entropy approximation provides simple, objective estimates of extremes in the tail beyond the range of observations.     

石渠5．1级地震与德格5．0级地震灾害对比

本文根据现场调查资料描述了四川省相邻的两县石渠县和德格县分别发生的Ｍｓ５．１和５．０级地震的灾害情况，并对这两次地震的灾害特征和灾害环境等作了对比。虽然这两次地震的震级相近，宏观震中仅相距约１３０ｋｍ（直线距离），但地震所造成的经济损失和社会影响却相差较大。导致这种灾害明显差异的原因主要是先前的冻胀灾害和自然地理环境以及建筑物场地条件的不同。     

运用人工神经网络作汛期降水预报

本文提出汛期降水预报的人工神经网络方法，并选择一组标样进行了具体分析，预报成功率达100％，结果表明，该方法性能良好，可望成为汛期降水预报的有效手段。     

Cloud tracking using satellite data for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events in the Mediterranean area

The use of cloud tracking techniques and storm identification procedures is proposed in this paper with the aim of predicting the evolution of cloud entities associated with the highest rainfall probability within a given meteorological scenario. Suitable algorithms for this kind of analysis are based on the processing of digital images in the thermal infrared (IR) band from geostationary satellites: a selection of such algorithms is described in some detail together with a few real case applications. Three heavy rainfall events have been selected for this purpose with reference to the extreme meteorological situation observed during Fall 1992 and 1993 over the Mediterranean area. A window from 30 to 60 °N and from 20 °W to 30 °E has been identified for the analysis of data from the radiometer on board the ESA Meteosat platform. In conclusion, the suitability of cloud tracking techniques for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events is discussed provided that the former are associated with proper modeling of small scale rainfall distribution.     

Appraisal of regional and index flood quantile estimators

Our results illustrate the performance of at-site and regional GEV/PWM flood quantile estimators in regions with different coefficients of variation, degrees of regional heterogeneity, record lengths, and number of sites. Analytic approximations of bias and variance are employed. For realistic GEV distributions and short records, the index-flood quantile estimator performs better than a 2-parameter GEV/PWM quantile estimator with a regional shape parameter, or a 3-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimator, in both humid and especially in arid regions, as long as the degree of regional heterogeneity is moderate. As regional heterogeneity or record lengths increases, 2-parameter estimators quickly dominate. Flood frequency models that assign probabilities larger than 2% to negative flows are unrealistic; experiments employing such distributions provide questionable results. This appraisal generally demonstrates the value of regionalizing estimators of the shape of a flood distribution, and sometimes the coefficient of variation.     

浅谈“3S”技术在防灾减灾中的应用

通过描述传统测绘地形图在防灾减灾中的特殊作用及局限性,进而介绍了现代测绘高科技“3S”技术在灾害防治中的应用前景及其优越性。     

Channel morphology and its impact on flood passage, the Tianjiazhen reach of the middle Yangtze River

The Tianjiazhen reach of the middle Yangtze is about 8 km long, and characterized by a narrow river width of 650 m and local water depth of > 90 m in deep inner troughs, of which about 60 m is below the mean sea level. The troughs in the channel of such a large river are associated with regional tectonics and local lithology. The channel configuration plays a critical role in modifying the height and duration of river floods and erosion of the riverbed. The formation of the troughs in the bed of the Yangtze is considered to be controlled by sets of NW–SE-oriented neotectonic fault zones, in which some segments consist of highly folded thick Triassic limestone crossed by the Yangtze River. Several limestone hills, currently located next to the river channel, serve as nodes that create large vortices in the river, thereby accelerating downcutting on the riverbed composed of limestone highly susceptible to physical corrosion and chemical dissolution. Hydrological records indicate that the nodal hills and channel configuration at Tianjiazhen do not impact on normal flow discharges but discharges > 50,000 m³s^− 1 are slowed down for 2–3 days. Catastrophic floods are held up for even longer periods. These inevitably result in elevated flood stages upstream of prolonged duration, affecting large cities such as Wuhan and a very large number of people.     

Reduced complexity strategies for modelling urban floodplain inundation

Significant advances in flood inundation modelling have been made in the last decade through the use of a new generation of 2D hydraulic numerical models. These offer the potential to predict the local pattern and timing of flood depth and velocity, enabling informed flood risk zoning and improved emergency planning. With the availability of high resolution DEMs derived from airborne lidar, these models can theoretically now be routinely parameterized to represent considerable topographic complexity, even in urban areas where the potential exists to represent flows at the scale of individual buildings. Currently, however, computational constraints on conventional finite element and volume codes typically require model discretization at scales well below those achievable with lidar and are thus unable to make optimal use of this emerging data stream.In this paper we review two strategies that attempt to address this mismatch between model and data resolution in an effort to improve urban flood forecasts. The first of these strives for a solution by simplifying the mathematical formulation of the numerical model by using a computationally efficient 2D raster storage cell approach coupled to a 1D channel model. This parsimonious model structure enables simulations over large model domains offering the opportunity to employ a topographic discretization strategy which explicitly represents the built environment. The second approach seeks to further reduce the computational overhead of this raster method by employing a subgrid parameterization to represent the effect of buildings and micro-relief on flow pathways and floodplain storage. This multi-scale methodology enables highly efficient model applications at coarse spatial resolutions while retaining information about the complex geometry of the built environment.These two strategies are evaluated through numerical experiments designed to reconstruct a flood in the small town of Linton in southern England, which occurred in response to a 1 in 250 year rainfall event in October 2001. Results from both approaches are encouraging, with the spatial pattern of inundation and flood wave propagation matching observations well. Both show significant advantages over a coarse resolution model without subgrid parameterisation, particularly in terms of their ability to reproduce both hydrograph and inundation depth measurements simultaneously, without need for recalibration. The subgrid parameterization is shown to achieve this without contributing significant computational complexity and reduces model run-times by an order of magnitude.     

People and community as constituent parts of hazards: the significance of societal dimensions in hazards analysis

Nature-triggered hazards and disasters have traditionally been treated only from the lens of geophysical and biophysical processes, implying that the root cause of large-scale death and destruction lies in the natural domain rather than in a coupled human–environment system. Conceptually, the physical domain has been seen as discrete and separate from human entities, and solutions were sought in the technological intervention and control of the physical environment—solutions that often ended up being less effective than hoped for and sometimes even counter productive. At all levels, institutions have directed and redirected most of their financial and logistical resources into the search for scientific and engineering solutions without allocating due attention and resources towards the assessment of effects and effectiveness of the applications of such technological outcomes. However, over the last two decades, forceful criticisms of the ‘dominant’ technocratic approach to hazards analysis have appeared in the literature and consequently there has not only been a shift in thinking of causation of disaster loss in terms of human vulnerability, but also newer questions have arisen regarding distinguishing between the ‘physical exposure’ of people to threats and societal vulnerability, and linking them with propensity to hazards loss. Though the vulnerability/resilience paradigm has largely replaced the hazards paradigm within the social sciences and much of the professional emergency and disaster management communities, this shift of thinking has not progressed to much of the physical science community, decision-makers and the public, who have not yet accepted the idea that understanding and using human and societal dimensions is equally or more important than trying to deal and control nature through the use of technology. This special issue is intended to further the idea that the aspects of community and peoples’ power to mitigate, to improve coping mechanisms, to respond effectively, and recover with vigor against the environmental extremes are of paramount conceptual and policy importance.     

Siderophile and chalcophile metal variations in Tertiary picrites and basalts from West Greenland with implications for the sulphide saturation history of continental flood basalt magmas

Sixty-five million year old continental flood basalts crop out on Qeqertarssuaq Island and the Nuussuaq Peninsula in West Greenland, and they include ～1,000 m of picritic lavas and discrete 10- to 50-m-thick members of highly contaminated basalts. On Qeqertarssuaq, the lavas are allocated to the Vaîgat and Maligât Formations of which the former includes the Naujánguit member, which consists of picrites with 7–29 wt% MgO, 80–1,400 ppm Ni, 5.7–9.4 ppb Pt and 4.2–12.9 ppb Pd. The Naujánguit member contains two horizons of contaminated basalts, the Asûk and Kûgánguaq, which have elevated SiO2 (52–58 wt%) and low to moderate MgO (7.5–12.8 wt%). These lavas are broadly characterized by low Cu and Ni abundances (average, 40 ppm Ni and 45 ppm Cu) and very low Pt (0.16–0.63 ppb) and Pd (0.13–0.68 ppb) abundances, and in the case of the Asûk, they contain shale xenoliths and droplets of native iron and troilite. The contaminated basalts from Nuussuaq, the B0 to B4 members, are also usually Ni-, Cu-, and platinum-group elements (PGE)-depleted. The geochemical signatures (especially the ratios of incompatible trace elements such as Th/Nb) of all of the contaminated basalts from Qeqertarssuaq and some of those from Nuussuaq record what appears to be a chemical contribution from deltaic shales that lie immediately below the lavas. This suggests that the contamination of the magmas occurred during the migration of the magmas through plumbing systems developed in sedimentary rocks, and hence, at a high crustal level. Nickel, Cu, and PGE depletion together with geochemical signatures produced by crustal contamination are also a feature of Siberian Trap basalts from the Noril’sk region. These basalts belong to the 0- to 500-m thick, ～5,000- to 10,000-km³ Nadezhdinsky Formation, which is centered in the Noril’sk Region. A major difference between Siberia and West Greenland is that PGE depletion in the Nadezhdinsky Formation samples with the lowest Cu and Ni contents is much more severe than that of the West Greenland contaminated basalts. Moreover, the volumes of the contaminated and metal-depleted volcanic rocks in West Greenland pale is significant when compared to the Nadezhdinsky Formation; local centers rarely contain more than 15 thin flows with a combined thickness of <50 m and more typically 10–20 m, so the volume of the eruptive portions of each system is probably two orders of magnitude smaller than the Nadezhdinsky edifice. The West Greenland centres are juxtaposed along fault zones that appear to be linked to the subsidence of the Tertiary delta, and so emplacement along N–S structures appears to be a principal control on the distribution of lavas and feeder intrusions. This leads us to suggest that the Greenland system is small and segregation of sulphide took place at high levels in the crust, whereas at Noril’sk, the saturation event took place at depth with subsequent emplacement of sulphide-bearing magmas into high levels of the crust. As a consequence, it may be unreasonable to expect that the West Greenland flood basalts experienced mineralizing processes on the scale of the Noril’sk system.