Migration and speciation transformation mechanisms of mercury in undercurrent zones of the Tongguan gold mining area,Shaanxi Loess Plateau and impact on the environment

In order to study the migration and transformation mechanism of Hg content and occurrence form in subsurface flow zone of gold mining area in Loess Plateau and its influence on water environment, the field in-situ infiltration test and laboratory test were carried out in three typical sections of river-side loess, alluvial and proluvial strata in Tongguan gold mining area of Shaanxi Province, and the following results were obtained: (1) The source of Hg in subsurface flow zone is mainly caused by mineral processing activities; (2) the subsurface flow zone in the study area is in alkaline environment, and the residual state, iron and manganese oxidation state, strong organic state and humic acid state of mercury in loess are equally divided in dry and oxidizing environment; mercury in river alluvial or diluvial strata is mainly concentrated in silt, tailings and clayey silt soil layer, and mercury has certain stability, and the form of mercury in loess is easier to transform than the other two media; (3) under the flooding condition, most of mercury is trapped in the silt layer in the undercurrent zone where the sand and silt layers alternate with each other and the river water and groundwater are disjointed, and the migration capacity of mercury is far less than that of loess layer and alluvial layer with close hydraulic connection; (4) infiltration at the flood level accelerates the migration of pollutants to the ground; (5) the soil in the undercurrent zone is overloaded and has seriously exceeded the standard. Although the groundwater monitoring results are safe this time, relevant enterprises or departments should continue to pay attention to improving the gold extraction process, especially vigorously rectify the small workshops for illegal gold extraction and the substandard discharge of the three wastes, and intensify efforts to solve the geological environmental problems of mines left over from history. At present, the occurrence form of mercury in the undercurrent zone is relatively stable, but the water and soil layers have been polluted. The risk of disjointed groundwater pollution can not be ignored while giving priority to the treatment of loess and river alluvial landform areas with close hydraulic links. The research results will provide a scientific basis for water conservancy departments to groundwater prevention and control in water-deficient areas of the Loess Plateau.     

重要信息系统的灾难恢复刍议

现代社会和生活越来越依赖于IT系统,信息系统遭到灾难和毁灭性打击将是社会公众的灾难和噩梦。美国“9.11”事件中纽约交易所成功实施了信息服务灾难恢复计划,使得全球对于“业务连续和灾难恢复”有了重新的认识。在我国,信息安全也日益成为政府部门管理层、企业和公众关注的重要话题。企业的弹性、系统的健壮性,信息系统的抗毁性与灾难恢复日益深入人心,风险管理越来越为业界所重视。地震部门在政府应急联动系统中具有重要作用,其本身的信息系统安全已逐步引起重视。     

国内外防灾减灾科技应用的思考

我国是世界上自然灾害最严重的国家之一,依靠科技进步来提高全国防灾减灾的综合能力已成为防灾减灾工作的重要内容之一。介绍了国内外防灾减灾领域科技应用与建设的现状,讨论了我国在这方面存在的主要问题;总结了国内外防灾减灾领域科技支撑建设的经验与启示,提出了增强我国防灾减灾领域科技应用能力的措施及建议。     

A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise

In this paper we present a methodology to estimate the probability of future coastal flooding given uncertainty over possible sea level rise. We take as an example the range of sea level rise magnitudes for 2100 contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M.T., Qin, D., Woodworth, P.L., Anisimov, O.A., Bryan, F.O., Cazenave, A., Dixon, K.W., Fitzharris, B.B., Flato, G.M., Ganopolski, A., Gornitz, V., Lowe, J.A., Noda, A., Oberhuber, J.M., O'Farrell, S.P., Ohmura, A., Oppenheimer, M., Peltier, W.R., Raper, S.C.B., Ritz, C., Russell, G.L., Schlosser, E., Shum, C.K., Stocker, T.F., Stouffer, R.J., van de Wal, R.S.W., Voss, R., Wiebe, E.C., Wild, M., Wingham, D.J. and Zwally, H.J., 2001. Changes in sea level. In Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 881pp.] and infer a plausible probability distribution for this range. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to sample from this distribution and use the resulting values as an additional boundary forcing for a two-dimensional model of coastal inundation used to simulate a 1 in 200 year extreme water level event. This yields an ensemble of simulations for an event of this magnitude occurring in 2100, where each member represents a different possible scenario of sea level rise by this time. We then develop a methodology to approximate the probability of flooding in each model grid cell over the ensemble and by combining these hazards maps with maps of land use values (consequence) we are able to estimate spatial contributions to flood risk that can aid planning and investment decisions. The method is then applied to a 32 km section of the UK coast in Somerset, South-West England and used to estimate the monetary losses and risk due a 1 in 200 year recurrence interval event under: (a) current conditions; (b) with the IPCC's most plausible value for sea level rise by 2100 (0.48 m) and (c) using the above methodology to fully account for uncertainty over possible sea level rise. The analysis shows that undertaking a risk assessment using the most plausible sea level rise value may significantly underestimate monetary losses as it fails to account for the impact of low probability, high consequence events. The developed method provides an objective basis for decisions regarding future defence spending and can be easily extended to consider other sources of uncertainty such as changing event frequency–magnitude distribution, changing storm surge conditions or model structural uncertainty, either singly or in combination as joint probabilities.     

Predicting tsunami arrivals: Estimates and policy implications

Tsunami is one of a few kinds of natural disasters that leave people some time for escape. This escape time, which is essentially the time for the giant wave to propagate from the epicentre to a coast, has to be estimated without delay upon the occurrence of the incident. With the advancement of water wave theories, much work has been done to model the propagation of tsunamis from deep oceans to shallow water. The authors argue that while much emphasis has been put on the expansion of the high-tech early warning system and the development of complicated tsunami models, a simple-to-use yet accurate predictive model is still wanting. This paper presents a handy linear wave model, which is capable of estimating the arrival time of a tsunami with very good accuracy, as has been verified by comparison with past incidents. With the availability of such a simple model, even local communities without access to a high-tech warning system can readily estimate the time left for emergency evacuation.     

基于水位和雨量的洪涝受灾面积评估模型研究

在分析湖北省洪涝灾害孕灾环境和致灾因子的基础上,利用民政部门整理的1951～2000年洪涝受灾面积资料,建立了基于长江中游流域逐月最高水位和湖北省5～10月降水总量的湖北省洪涝灾害受灾面积定性和定量评估模型,并给出了该模型2001～2006年的独立样本检验值,探讨了该模型在年度灾害趋势预估和灾后评估中的应用。     

我国核电厂设计中考虑的自然灾害综述与建议

我国是目前世界在建核电机组最多的国家,总装机容量世界第三,是名副其实的核大国,核安全是国家安全的重要内容,被提到了前所未有的高度.同时,我国也是世界上自然灾害最严重的国家之一,包括核电厂在内的重大工程建设高度重视自然灾害防御设计.日本311地震海啸引起福岛核事故后,核电厂设计中增强了对超设计基准自然灾害的考虑.本文对核...     

汀溪水库三维防洪调度管理信息系统研发

水库防洪调度是一个非常复杂的过程。水库防洪调度的信息化主要是借助测量、遥测、遥感(RS)、地理信息系统(G IS)、全球定位系统(GPS)等手段采集基础数据,构建数字化水库防洪数据管理平台和水库虚拟三维环境。在该平台和环境中,以系统软件和数学模型对水库流域的水雨情及洪水的调度方案进行模拟、分析和研究,提供决策支持,从而增强防洪调度决策的科学性和预见性。实践表明,通过RS、GIS技术建立的水库三维防洪调度系统能够为水库管理者提供水库防洪调度方案制定与分析、防洪调度决策等方面的强有力的、科学的辅助支持。本文结合厦门"汀溪水库三维防洪调度系统"的实际研发,探讨了RS和GIS技术在水库防洪调度中的应用。     

探讨灾害规律的理论基础--极端气候事件概率

分析了国内外极端气候事件研究的现状,从经典极值分布理论、极值分布模式的参数估计、广义极值分布等方面,阐述了近年来国际上常用的理论及研究方法。为了更好地佐证进行极端气候事件发生概率研究的重要性,列举了作者在该领域的一些成功研究成果,并认为极端气候事件概率问题是探讨气象灾害规律的理论基础。     

Quadrature-based approach for the efficient evaluation of surge hazard

The Joint Probability Method (JPM) has been used for hurricane surge frequency analysis for over three decades, and remains the method of choice owing to the limitations of more direct historical methods. However, use of the JPM approach in conjunction with the modern generation of complex high-resolution numerical models (used to describe winds, waves, and surge) has become highly inefficient, owing to the large number of costly storm simulations that are typically required. This paper describes a new approach to the selection of the storm simulation set that permits reduction of the JPM computational effort by about an order of magnitude (compared to a more conventional approach) while maintaining good accuracy. The method uses an integration scheme called Bayesian or Gaussian-process quadrature (together with conventional integration methods) to evaluate the multi-dimensional joint probability integral over the space of storm parameters (pressure, radius, speed, heading, and any others found to be important) as a weighted summation over a relatively small set of optimally selected nodes (synthetic storms). Examples of an application of the method are shown, drawn from the recent post-Katrina study of coastal Mississippi.