Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios

At the current rate of global warming, the target of limiting it within 2 degrees by the end of the century seems more and more unrealistic. Policymakers, businesses and organizations leading international negotiations urge the scientific community to provide realistic and accurate assessments of the possible consequences of so called “high end” climate scenarios.This study illustrates a novel procedure to assess the future flood risk in Europe under high levels of warming. It combines ensemble projections of extreme streamflow for the current century based on EURO-CORDEX RCP 8.5 climate scenarios with recent advances in European flood hazard mapping. Further novelties include a threshold-based evaluation of extreme event magnitude and frequency, an alternative method to removing bias in climate projections, the latest pan-European exposure maps, and an improved flood vulnerability estimation.Estimates of population affected and direct flood damages indicate that by the end of the century the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe is projected to increase by an average 220% due to climate change only. When coherent socio-economic development pathways are included in the assessment, central estimates of population annually affected by floods range between 500,000 and 640,000 in 2050, and between 540,000 and 950,000 in 2080, as compared to 216,000 in the current climate. A larger range is foreseen in the annual flood damage, currently of 5.3 B€, which is projected to rise at 20–40 B€ in 2050 and 30–100 B€ in 2080, depending on the future economic growth.     

地球系统动力学模式和模拟研究的进展

概述地球系统动力学模式的由来及国内外目前的研究和模拟进展。地球系统动力学模式是描述全球气候以及生态和环境系统的整体耦合演变的数学表达。利用他作大规模数值模拟,以便认识和预测全球和区域的气候和生态环境变化,有效应对防灾减灾和规划可持续发展等。目前国内外尚未完全研制出可供实用的地球系统模式,还须二三年时间。     

云南大瑞铁路大保段地质灾害特征与诱发因素

大瑞铁路大保段位于云贵高原西部边缘,著名的横断山脉南段,地势错综复杂。主要地质灾害崩塌、滑坡、泥石流,地质灾害的形成的本质因素是地形地貌、地层岩性、地质构造等;外部因素包括大气降水、植被破坏及人类工程活动等方面。     

改进的AHP在县域尺度暴雨洪涝风险评价的应用

以淮河流域为例,选取降水、土地利用、经济、人口等指标作为淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险指标,利用信息熵改进的层次分析法确定淮河流域暴雨洪涝的风险评估指标权重,并应用于县域尺度淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价。结果表明:(1)淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险空间分布整体呈现南部高、北部低,东西高、中部次之的形态。(2)改进的层次分析法得到的高风险区比传统方法的面积减少,市县个数下降,而次高风险区、中风险区、次低以及低风险区面积比之传统方法均有增加。同时风险平均值升高,导致受灾程度可能加大。(3)改进方法得到的岳西县风险等级由高风险区降为次高风险区,低于金寨县风险等级。宿州市风险等级由次高风险区降为中风险区,较灵璧、泗县风险低,与实际情况更为相符,提高了淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价精度。     

云南大关寿山水电站地质灾害危险性评估

在工程建设中,地质灾害的发生往往与工程周边复杂的地质环境条件密切相关,山地区域由于地质地形条件复杂,使得工程地质灾害发生的可能性和危险性大大增加.以云南大关寿山水电站为例,介绍了地质灾害评估工作的基本过程和特点,对一般水电站的地质灾害危险性评估工作具有一定的参考价值.     

The Deccan Trap – Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary connection; new 40Ar/39Ar ages and critical assessment of existing argon data pertinent to this hypothesis

The Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary (KPgB) was dated by the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method herein from the western interior of North America at 65.48 ± 0.12 Ma (1σ), in good agreement with other recent published estimates. For the Deccan Traps, India, new argon ages as well as others available in the literature, are assessed for reliability based on (a) statistical reliability of plateau/isochron sections and (b) freshness of material dated utilizing the alteration index method. From tholeiitic lavas from the Composite Western Ghats Section (CWGS), only six ages are found to be reliable estimates of the time of crystallization. These ages along with the magnetic polarity of the lavas agree with the geomagnetic polarity time scale (GPTS) at ∼67–64 Ma. Alkaline rocks from the Anjar area of Kutch, provide three reliable ages that suggest a hiatus in lava extrusion around KPgB. For the Rajahmundry basalts, the upper flow’s age defines its formation during chron 29n; a single age from the lower reversed polarity flow appears somewhat dichotomous when plotted against the GPTS. The reliable lava ages indicate the most voluminous (reversed polarity) sections of the CWGS were extruded at a time statistically indistinguishable from that of the KPgB. The Deccan Trap – KPgB faunal extinction hypothesis remains plausible, but must compete with the latest report, favoring a very close temporal connection (∼0.03 m.y.) between the Chixculub (Impact) Crater and the KPgB.     

贵州省安龙县戈塘镇大海子岩溶洪涝的治理及其工程意义

贵州岩溶石山区岩溶洪涝洼地发育、内涝灾害造成了大量的耕地破。查明洪涝洼地成因并有效进行治理,对防灾减灾、生态环境治理、促进石山区经济社会发展具有重大意义。本文阐述了大海子岩溶洪涝的特征及其危害,探讨了洪涝洼地的成因,有针对性地提了治理方案。可为同类型治理工程提供借鉴。     

Disaster Risk Science Development and Disaster Risk Reduction Using Science and Technology

Based on a series of international conferences for establishing HFA2 framework, this paper analyzed key issues of frontier of disaster risk science, integrated disaster prevention and mitigation strategies and integrated disaster risk governance. The future direction of disaster risk science was comprehensively discussed according to the widely discussed Post 2015 Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA2). It was proposed to deepen the cognition of the complexity of disaster system in terms of recognizing the complexity of disaster system from the interaction among various elements of the system, recognizing the complexity of climate change risk from the regional characteristics and formation mechanism of the global climate change and recognizing the complexity of the catastrophe risk from the regional development levels and patterns. Furthermore, it was suggested to make integrated disaster risk reduction strategies and countermeasures from the perspective of the complexity of the disaster system, including the establishment of regional integrated disaster risk governance framework to face climate change, the establishment of integrated disaster risk governance system in multi-spatial scale, the establishment of disaster risk governance financial system integrating the insurance, bonds and lottery, the establishment of consilience mode in integrated risk governance considering multi-stakeholder and the establishment of modeling and simulation platform integrated disaster risk information services and disaster risk reduction strategies. Finally, it was pointed out that the assessment of disaster risk levels for different regions in multi spatial scale can provide robust scientific support for integrated disaster risk governance of the world and regions, industries and enterprises so as to improve response to global change and guarantee a global and regional sustainable development.     

徐州市地质灾害防灾减灾方法研究

以徐州市地质灾害详细调查资料为依据,总结了徐州市地质灾害的主要类型,归纳分析了徐州市地质灾害形成的地质环境条件、诱发因素、发育现状及造成的损失。根据近年来省内外尤其是徐州市地质灾害调查评价和邳州石膏矿区地面塌陷现状及预防措施的建议,结合徐州市地质灾害隐患的具体特点,提出了加强地质灾害防治的有关制度建设、宣传培训工作、科学部署地质灾害防治、监测工程、强化建设项目的地质灾害危险性评估等地质灾害防灾减灾措施。