综合气象观测系统业务运行综合评估技术研究

综合气象观测网运行监控系统是我国气象探测设备运行保障的实时业务系统.文章以装备技术保障工程理论为基础,按可靠性、维修性、保障性、业务性、经济性等多个范畴,从装备运行状态、装备性能参数、探测数据质量、通信传输、供应保障、维护维修等方面,提出了针对我国综合气象观测网中各类设备的运行、维护和保障等工作进行综合评估的技术方法,...     

Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

利用GRACE卫星Level-1B数据反演陆地水储量变化的方法研究

卫星重力探测技术为监测陆地水储量变化提供了新的技术手段。对利用GRACE卫星Level-1B数据反演地球陆地水储量变化的重力位差法和Mascon方法的数学模型作了详细推导分析,总结两种方法的特点和解算处理步骤。推导过程表明:重力位差法和Mascon方法在反演时只采用卫星飞临研究区域上空时的观测数据,能够提高反演结果的空间分辨率,比传统的球谐系数法更具优势;Mascon方法在解算时还引入了时空约束方程,进一步提高了反演结果的时空分辨率。     

A novel mathematical morphology based algorithm for shoreline extraction from satellite images

Abstract

Shoreline extraction is fundamental and inevitable for several studies. Ascertaining the precise spatial location of the shoreline is crucial. Recently, the need for using remote sensing data to accomplish the complex task of automatic extraction of features, such as shoreline, has considerably increased. Automated feature extraction can drastically minimize the time and cost of data acquisition and database updating. Effective and fast approaches are essential to monitor coastline retreat and update shoreline maps. Here, we present a flexible mathematical morphology-driven approach for shoreline extraction algorithm from satellite imageries. The salient features of this work are the preservation of actual size and shape of the shorelines, run-time structuring element definition, semi-automation, faster processing, and single band adaptability. The proposed approach is tested with various sensor-driven images with low to high resolutions. Accuracy of the developed methodology has been assessed with manually prepared ground truths of the study area and compared with an existing shoreline classification approach. The proposed approach is found successful in shoreline extraction from the wide variety of satellite images based on the results drawn from visual and quantitative assessments.     

北京地区脑卒中发病率的气象条件研究

根据北京抽样人群的脑卒中发病资料和前期气象资料的对比分析,揭示出不同年龄段人群发病率的年变化特点和多年变化趋势,讨论了前期气象因子与发病率的关系,并在此基础上设计对发病率有预测意义的分辨率为５级的统计模型,经Ｆ检验表明,预测效果较好。     

遥感影像分辨率分析技术在滑坡研究中的应用

采用定性与定量相结合的方法对滑坡要素进行了深入分析。将滑坡要素划分为空间要素、时间要素和岩土性质要素3个方面,并分别讨论它们与遥感影像空间分辨率、时间分辨率和波谱分辨率的关系。首先对各滑坡要素进行了定性分析,然后提出了判识滑坡空间要素的定量依据;提出了通过遥感影像计算滑动速率的公式,以此作为按照时间分辨率选择遥感数据的依据;最后提出为判识岩土性质要素应采用高波谱分辨率遥感影像的观点。     

太湖蓝藻水华形成的适宜气象指标

根据2005—2017年卫星遥感反演的太湖蓝藻水华信息,利用区域气象观测数据分析各类气象因子对太湖蓝藻深水华形成的影响,结果表明:①在日平均气温为0～35℃区间内会出现蓝藻聚集现象,其中最适宜气温区间为15.1～35℃,该区间内累计出现蓝藻水华的面积占比达90%、出现大面积蓝藻水华占比达93%;②在卫星观测到蓝藻前6h,平均风速为0.2～4.8m/s区间内能观测到蓝藻水华,其中最适宜的平均风速区间为0.5～3.4m/s,该区间内蓝藻水华累计出现次数占比达94.7%,大面积蓝藻水华主要出现在平均风速2.0m/s的情况下,占比89%;③降水总体上呈负效应,但在观测到有大面积蓝藻水华的情况下,前24h有小雨(10mm)的情形与总降水次数之比达88%,说明小雨的适度扰动有利于形成大面积蓝藻水华;④日照充足有利于蓝藻生长,但并非蓝藻水华形成的必要条件。在此基础上建立的多元回归综合气象指数模型,拟合结果较好,通过了0.001的显著性检验。     

SBAS星历改正数及UDRE参数生成算法分析

星基增强系统(satellite based augmentation system,SBAS)通过地球同步轨道卫星实时播发导航卫星星历改正数和完好性参数,以提升用户定位精度和完好性.采用最小方差法解算GPS星历改正数,利用卡方统计进行改正数完好性检核,并依据星历改正数方差-协方差信息计算SBAS用户差分距离误差(us...     

利用FY-3C气象卫星GNSS掩星估计全球重力波变化与分析

大气重力波是地球大气层中广泛存在的重要大气动力学扰动,研究其分布和变化规律对理解大气物理、大气结构以及大气动力学等具有重要意义.传统大气重力波探测手段,如雷达和探空气球等,均存在探测时间短、有效探测高度低等缺点,全球卫星导航系统（GNSS）掩星观测具有全天候、低成本、高精度等优点,被广泛应用于地球大气探测和研究,为研究区域或全球重力波变化和活动特征提供了新的观测手段.本文利用中国第一颗搭载GNSS掩星设备气象卫星——风云3C （FY-3C）获得的掩星数据,反演得到2014年8月—2016年12月大气温度轮廓线,并首次估计重力波参数分布,分析了重力波参数的时空变化分布特征.结果表明,海陆季节性对流导致冬夏两季的重力波势能强于春秋两季,赤道对流作用导致赤道区域重力波强于两极,夏季南半球中低纬度地区重力波活动频繁,冬季北半球中低纬度区域重力波活动频繁.重力波随着高度的上升,势能逐渐下降.另外,地形是低层大气重力波的主要来源.     

精密单点定位中三种GPS卫星钟差预报模型的精度分析

分析了二次多项式、线性和灰色系统三种预报模型的原理和特点,采用了IGS精密星历和超快星历数据,选取了五颗钟差变化比较典型的卫星,实现了为期一天的卫星钟差预报。