Cognition of feedback loops in a fire-prone social-ecological system

Increasing wildfire severity highlights the need for large-scale shifts in management of fire-prone landscapes. While prior research has focused on cognitive biases, social norms, and institutional disincentives that limit reform, such factors are best understood as components of feedback loops that operate within complex adaptive systems. We evaluated the prominence and function of feedback loops embedded in cognitive maps—beliefs about patterns of causal relationships that drive system dynamics—elicited from a diverse cross-section of stakeholders in a fire-prone region in the U.S. West. We demonstrate that cognition of feedback loops is rare among individuals, but increasingly prominent within aggregations of cognitive maps, which underscores the importance of collaborative decision-making. Our analysis further reveals a bias toward perception of amplifying feedback loops and of loops in which management actions result in desirable outcomes, which points to areas where progress may be made in reforming wildfire risk governance.     

基于稀疏反演的OBS数据多次波压制方法

自由表面多次波压制是海底地震仪（Ocean Bottom Seismometer,OBS）数据处理和成像中的难点,OBS数据多次波能量强,周期长,严重影响深层一次反射波的处理和成像.不同于常规拖缆观测系统,OBS数据站点一般相隔较远,仅仅利用检波点稀疏的波场信息难以压制OBS数据中的自由表面多次波.本文采用拖缆数据与OBS数据联合,利用稀疏反演估计（Estimation of Primaries and Multiples by Sparse Inversion,EPSI）方法,研究了OBS数据自由表面多次波压制理论,分析了OBS多次波产生的机理,详细推导了拖缆数据与OBS数据联合预测OBS多次波的EPSI方法基本原理.通过利用拖缆数据的信息,实现了OBS检波点稀疏数据多次波的压制问题.EPSI方法通过稀疏反演直接估计一次反射波,避免了SRME（Surface Related Multiple Elimination）方法中自适应相减对有效信号的损害,保真了一次反射有效信号,理论模拟OBS数据验证了方法的有效性.     

控制论与人工影响天气 III: 自然控制论在人工增雨作业中的应用框架

应用自然控制论的理论方法,提出人工增雨作业和效果检验的框架.它将事前和作业进行过程中的观测和预报、调控方案(滚动式的和有反馈回路的)、作业和效果检验紧密联系成一个整体系统,将调控方案提为最优化问题,并把不断的观测资料同化到滚动式预报模式和求优化之中.所提出的一种效果检验方法是比较客观和定量的.     

Experimental test of asymmetrical cable-stayed bridges using MR-damper for vibration control

In this paper, a semi-active control by MR-damper is researched; its purpose is to effectively control vibration of asymmetrical cable-stayed bridges when earthquake is loaded on the type of bridge. For an experimental study, a model of 10.2 m high and 28 m long asymmetrical cable-stayed bridge structure was built being similar to a real one in size and function. A MR damper was also designed in proper size suitable for the control of the model. The experiment was performed in the way in which three piers were fixed on three shaking tables with 30% of El-centro earthquake wave, and a control device was placed on the lower part of its upper deck for horizontal control. As for control algorithms, Lyapunov and Clipped-optimal control algorithms were applied. The effectiveness of the semi-active control with MR damper for the asymmetrical cable-stayed bridge was measured under five control conditions: Un-control, Passive-off, Passive-on, Lyapunov Control, Clipped-optimal Control. The experiment showed that the semi-active control applying Lyapunov and Clipped-optimal algorithms effectively increased controllability almost in double, and decreased displacement 75% compared with the condition of passive-off. Therefore the semi-active method suggested in this paper is proven effective in controlling asymmetrical cable-stayed bridges.     

Feedback mechanisms in chemo-mechanical multi-scale modeling of soil and sediment compaction

Geomaterials respond to some environmental circumstances through generation of a series of feedback mechanisms of damage, deformation, erosion, and chemical processes or reactions: e.g. osmosis, dissolution and precipitation, mineral transformations. These mechanisms are coupled at different scales. Several natural geomechanical processes, as sediment compaction, rock weathering or landsliding appear to include such sequences of mechanisms. A multi-physics model of sediment compaction is examined from the point of view of feedbacks and feedforwards for the phenomena involved at micro- and meso-scale. Two types of feedback are identified: constitutive feedbacks and boundary condition feedbacks. A numerical sensitivity study points out which feedbacks and feedforwards are strong and which are weak.     

Composed analytical models for seismic assessment of reinforced concrete bridge columns

This paper presents general composed analytical models to predict the behavior of reinforced concrete (RC) bridge columns. The analytical models were developed in OpenSees to represent the common hysteretic behavior of RC bridge columns. The proposed composed models can accommodate flexure failure, flexure‐shear failure, and pure shear failure, which are observed in existing RC bridge piers. The accuracy of the models was verified using data from the static cyclic‐loading experiments of 16 single columns and one multi‐column bent and dynamical experiment from two pseudo‐dynamic tests. The results showed that the analytical models could simulate the nonlinear behavior until the post‐failure behavior, including the strength degradation, the buckling of the reinforcement, and the pinching effect. Therefore, a global view of the behavior of reinforcement concrete is prescribed as simply as possible from the academic perspective, and these models are expected to provide sufficient accuracy when applied in engineering practice. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental impacts of urban growth from an integrated dynamic perspective: A case study of Shenzhen, South China

China is home to one-fifth of the world's population and that population is increasingly urban. The landscape is also urbanizing. Although there are studies that focus on specific elements of urban growth, there is very little empirical work that incorporates feedbacks and linkages to assess the interactions between the dynamics of urban growth and their environmental impacts. In this study, we develop a system dynamics simulation model of the drivers and environmental impacts of urban growth, using Shenzhen, South China, as a case study. We identify three phases of urban growth and develop scenarios to evaluate the impact of urban growth on several environmental indicators: land use, air quality, and demand for water and energy. The results show that all developable land will be urban by 2020 and the increase in the number of vehicles will be a major source of air pollution. Demand for water and electricity will rise, and the city will become increasingly vulnerable to shortages of either. The scenarios also show that there will be improvements in local environmental quality as a result of increasing affluence and economic growth. However, the environmental impacts outside of Shenzhen may increase as demands for natural resources increase and Shenzhen pushes its manufacturing industries out of the municipality. The findings may also portend to changes other cities in China and elsewhere in the developing world may experience as they continue to industrialize.     

华北地区一次强灰霾污染的天气学效应

利用在线耦合的大气化学模式WRF-Chem V3.6(Weather Research Forecasting Model with Chemistry Version 3.6)及环境、气象观测数据,在完成大气化学方案优选的基础上,研究了华北地区一次重霾污染过程(2013年2月15~17日)对气象条件的反馈作用。重点关注一次颗粒物、无机气态成分和挥发性有机污染物的人为排放对PM2.5(空气动力学当量直径小于等于2.5μm的颗粒物,即细颗粒物)生成的贡献,探讨了由此引发的气象条件的变化。模拟结果显示,上述3种人为源的综合排放对华北地区PM2.5浓度的平均贡献率为91.27%,其中对北京、秦皇岛和沧州的贡献率分别达96.9%、95.9%和97.2%。这使区域地面太阳向下短波辐射降低近15.99%,区域平均地面辐射强迫达-26.51 W m-2,由此导致地面温度下降0.14°C(3.68%),逆温增强,垂直温度梯度(?T/?z)升高0.026 K km-1,边界层高度降低18.92 m(8.77%),平均风速减少约0.014 m s-1(0.35%),相对湿度绝对值升高0.51%,地面平均气压降低0.86 Pa。对于15~17日污染过程,人为源综合排放的气溶胶对短波辐射的影响在天气过程中占主导地位,对边界层高度的影响较大,但不起主导作用,对温度、风速、相对湿度、气压的作用则远小于天气系统本身。挥发性有机污染物(Volatile Organic Compounds,VOCs)作为二次有机气溶胶(Secondary Organic Aerosol,SOA)的前体物,其人为排放对SOA浓度的贡献率约为99.6%。同时,VOCs通过调整大气反应活性促进无机气态成分向无机盐转化,它对硫酸盐和硝酸盐浓度的贡献达50%以上。然而,VOCs对整个PM2.5浓度的贡献不及各种源综合贡献的1/4。人为排放的VOCs对气象场的反馈与综合排放的作用基本一致,但对地面气压的影响VOCs排放时以热力因子为主,而人为源综合排放时以动力因子为主。上述结果暗示,灰霾污染过程所引发的气象条件向不利于污染物扩散方向改变,这可能促进污染物的局地累积、增强污染程度并延长区域内重污染的持续时间。因此,在探讨区域性灰霾污染成因时,灰霾自身通过辐射强迫作用对大气的调节是不可忽视的重要影响因素。     

Why Is the Climate Forcing of Sulfate Aerosols So Uncertain?

l. IntroductionAlthough the aerosol has been recognized as an important factor which has innuence onthe past, present and future climate for a long time, it still has much uncertainty in assessingits climate forcing. The direct radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols has been estimated rangingfrom --0.3 W/ m2 to --0.9 W/ m2 in recent publications (Charlson et al., l992, Kiehl andBriegleb l993; Taylor and Penner 1994, Boucher and Anderson l995, Kieh1 and Rodhe l995;Chuang et al., l997, Penne…     

沙尘气溶胶与气候变化

沙尘气溶胶通过吸收和散射太阳辐射与长波辐射影响地球辐射收支和能量平衡,从而影响气候变化。另一方面,气候变化,土地利用、沙漠化和城市化等人类活动都是可能导致大气中矿物沙尘气溶胶的改变。沙尘气溶胶在全球及区域尺度气候和环境变化中起着十分重要的作用。