An analysis and modeling study of a sea fog event over the Yellow and Bohai Seas

In this study, a sea fog event which occurred on 27 March 2005 over the Yellow and Bohai Seas was investigated observationally and numerically. Almost all available observational data were used, including satellite imagery of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-9, three data sets from station observations at Dandong, Dalian and Qingdao, objectively reanalyzed data of final run analysis (FNL) issued by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) results. Synoptic conditions and fog characteristics were analyzed. The fog formed when warm,moist air was advected northwards over the cool water of the Yellow and Bohai Seas, and dissipated when a cold front brought northerly winds and cool, dry air. In order to better understand the fog formation mechanism, a high-resolution RAMS modeling with a 6km×6km grid, initialized and validated by FNL data, was designed. A 48h modeling that started from 12 UTC 26 March 2005reproduced the main characteristics of this sea fog event. The simulated lower visibility area agreed reasonably well with the sea fog region identified from the satellite imagery. Advection cooling effect seemed to play a significant role in the fog formation.     

成乐高速公路大雾预报方法研究

本文重点分析成乐高速公路沿线大雾历年变化特征,分别用指标判断法和非线性统计支持向量机SVM方法,对成乐路沿线各站大雾的有无定性和能见度量级做出短期和短临客观预报模型,最后通过人为经验订正,对沿线各站大雾做出精细化客观预报;其次,作为新方法的探讨,用中尺度wrf模式对2008年一次典型连续强浓雾天气作了数值模拟试验,试验结果良好,但是该方法的业务化应用有一定难度,还有待进一步研究。      

基于极端随机树方法的WRF-CMAQ-MOS模型研究

随着城市化、工业化的快速发展,空气污染已经成为了公众最关注的问题之一。为了提高空气质量预报的准确度,以多尺度空气质量模型（Community Multi-Scale Air Quality,CMAQ）为工具,结合中尺度WRF（Weather Research and Forecast Model）气象预报数据、气象观测数据、污染物浓度观测数据,基于极端随机树方法建立了WRF-CMAQ-MOS（Weather Research and Forecast Model-Community Multi-Scale Air Quality-Model Output Statistics）统计修正模型。结果表明,结合WRF气象预报的CMAQ-MOS方法明显修正了由于模型非客观性产生的模式预报偏差,提高了预报效果。使用线性回归方法不能获得较好的优化效果,选取极端随机树方法和梯度提升回归树方法对模型进行改进和比较,发现极端随机树方法对结合WRF气象要素的CMAQ-MOS模型有较大的提升。针对徐州地区空气质量预报,进一步使用基于极端随机树方法的WRF-CMAQ-MOS模型对2016年1、2、3月的空气质量指数（AQI）及PM_2.5、PM₁₀、NO₂、SO₂、O₃、CO六种污染物优化试验进行验证,发现优化效果最为明显的两种污染物分别是NO₂及O₃,2016年1、2、3月整体相关系数NO₂由0.35升至0.63,O₃由0.39升至0.79,均方根误差NO₂由0.0346减至0.0243 mg/m3,O₃由0.0447减至0.0367 mg/m3。文中发展的WRF-CMAQ-MOS统计修正模型可以有效提升预报精度,在空气质量预报中具有很好的应用前景。      

一次雾霾过程中气象因子与细颗粒物浓度关系的研究

利用常规气象观测资料及逐小时地面自动气象观测和环境监测部门的PM2．5浓度等资料,对2014年1月15～19日河北省持续雾霾天气期间气象因子与PM2．5浓度的关系进行统计分析。结果表明,PM2．5是造成霾阶段水平能见度下降的主要因素,相对湿度在40％～60％之间时,能见度与PM2．5浓度相关性最好,随着相对湿度的增大,PM2．5浓度对能见度的作用呈减小趋势;雾阶段能见度与相对湿度的相关性明显好于PM2．5浓度值。西北大风对河北PM2．5浓度的平均清除率在94．3％,去除时间平均为3．7 h,可使PM2．5空气质量分指数达到优或良的等级,降雪对PM2．5浓度的清除作用明显小于大风,很难将PM2．5空气质量分指数降到优或良。     

湖北西南山地一次辐射雾和雨雾气象要素特征的对比分析

利用边界层探测、地面高空观测等资料,对比分析了2010年湖北西南山地一次连续发生的辐射雾和雨雾的环流形势及地面和高空气象要素特征,结果表明:1)500 hPa阻塞高压脊和南支槽的反位相叠置有利于湖北西南山地出现雨雾天气.2)地面水平能见度与相对湿度反相关关系非常显著;雨雾与降水的发生、持续和结束几乎同步.3)辐射雾时地面水平能见度与雾滴浓度反相关性比雨雾更为显著;雾含水量越大能见度越低.4)辐射雾发生期间有多个逆温层同时存在,上层逆温更厚更强、下层逆温更为浅薄.雨雾发生时,逆温层可以有2～3个,逆温层底比辐射雾低层逆温层底高,但也可能没有逆温层存在.5)边界层风速小、对流活动弱有利山地辐射雾和雨雾的形成.地面风速很小或者静风,是辐射雾和雨雾生成的共同条件.雨雾发生时对流活动发展的高度比辐射雾高.6)辐射雾空气饱和层的高度低于雨雾.     

New photometry and astrometry of the isolated neutron star RX J0720.4–3125 using recent VLT/FORS observations

Since the first optical detection of RX J0720.4–3125 various observations have been performed to determine astrometric and photometric data. We present the first detection of the isolated neutron star in the V Bessel filter to study the spectral energy distribution and derive a new astrometric position. At ESO Paranal we obtained very deep images with FORS 1 (three hours exposure time) of RX J0720.4–3125 in the V Bessel filter in January 2008. We derive the visual magnitude by standard star aperture photometry. Using sophisticated resampling software we correct the images for field distortions. Then we derive an updated position and proper motion value by comparing its position with FORS 1 observations of December 2000. We calculate a visual magnitude of V = 26.81 ± 0.09 mag, which is seven times in excess of what is expected from X‐ray data, but consistent with the extant U, B, and R data. Over about a seven year epoch difference we measured a proper motion of μ = 105.1 ± 7.4 mas yr^–1 towards θ = 296.951° ± 0.0063° (NW), consistent with previous data (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Hydrostatic equilibrium of causally consistent and dynamically stable neutron star models

We show that the mass–radius  ( M – R )  relation corresponding to the stiffest equation of state (EOS) does not provide the necessary and sufficient condition of dynamical stability for equilibrium configurations, because such configurations cannot satisfy the 'compatibility criterion'. In this regard, we construct sequences composed of core–envelope models such that, like the central condition belonging to the stiffest EOS, each member of these sequences satisfies the extreme case of the causality condition,   v = c = 1  , at the centre. We thereafter show that the M – R relation corresponding to the said core–envelope model sequences can provide the necessary and sufficient condition of dynamical stability only when the 'compatibility criterion' for these sequences is 'appropriately' satisfied. However, the 'compatibility criterion' can remain satisfied even when the M – R relation does not provide the necessary and sufficient condition of dynamical stability for the equilibrium configurations. In continuation of the results of a previous study, these results explicitly show that the 'compatibility criterion' independently provides, in general, the necessary and sufficient condition of hydrostatic equilibrium for any regular sequence. In addition to its fundamental result, this study can explain simultaneously the higher and the lower values of the glitch healing parameter observed for the Crab-like and Vela-like pulsars respectively, on the basis of the starquake model of glitch generation.     

呼和浩特市雾的分布特征及对人体的危害

利用呼和浩特本站1960—2009年共50年每天的地面常规气象观测资料,对出现雾、轻雾时的水平能见度、相对湿度、风速和风向等资料进行统计分析。得到:(1)呼和浩特市绝大部分雾出现在后半夜到上午,属辐射雾;(2)呼和浩特市50年来出现了192次轻雾,年均3.8次,出现了40次雾,年均0.8次,能见度在500m以下的雾出现了20次,年均0.4次;2000年以后,轻雾、雾总次数呈上升趋势;(3)出现轻雾最多的月份是3月,次多是10月,2月最少;总的来看,冬季和夏季出现次数较少,秋季和春季较多;(4)出现雾和轻雾时绝大部分当天或前一天有降水,相对湿度大于80%,风速小于2.0 m.s-1,大部分为静风或偏南风;(5)出现雾时影响了农作物生长,对交通运输业造成很大影响,对身体健康非常有害。     

黄渤海一次持续性大雾过程的边界层特征及生消机理分析

利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP的FNL客观再分析资料和L波段雷达探测资料以及采用国家卫星气象中心多通道气象卫星监测数据和定性分析海雾的方法来处理卫星监测的海雾信息,探讨了2010年2月22—25日黄渤海大雾过程的边界层海气要素的特征、大雾成因及生消机理,结果表明:(1)这次大雾是产生在欧亚中高纬平直环流、大气层结稳定的气象条件下。南支槽前的西南气流与副热带高压西北侧及沿海高压脊后部的偏南气流汇合,形成一支跨越中低纬的偏南气流为海雾形成提供有利的水汽条件。(2)大雾的生消与海表温度、气海温差、空气稳定度和风场等气象、水文要素有密切关系;大雾期间,黄渤海气海温差在0~2℃;大气边界层至对流层下部均有逆温层和等温层,逆温层内的温差为6~8℃,垂直温度的变化是上层温度随时间增大高于低层,使逆温层加强并不断抬升,抑制空气垂直对流发展。近地层空气湿度较大,在200 m附近出现一个液态水含量达0.6 g·kg~(-1)大值区;850 hPa以下层均由2~4 m·s~(-1)的东北风随高度顺转成6~8 m·s~(-1)的西南风,为大雾形成和持续发展提供了有利条件。(3)大雾的湍流最大发展高度达到240 m,湍流混合作用可将中上层湿区水汽和雾滴带到近海面层,同时也有利于空气的降温,易达到饱和凝结而形成大雾。中低层持续弱暖平流把暖湿气流输送至冷海面上有利于近海面逆温层的建立和维持,海面辐射冷却作用激发平流形成大雾。