辽宁避暑旅游气候适宜度评价

利用辽宁省59个国家气象站2008-2017年6-8月逐时地面观测资料,综合考虑夏季气候舒适度和高影响天气对避暑旅游的不利影响,确定辽宁避暑旅游气候适宜度评价方法,分析了辽宁避暑旅游适宜度时空分布,为公众及旅游相关部门了解当地避暑旅游气候资源提供参考.研究表明:①辽宁避暑旅游适宜度由西北到东南逐渐增强,59个地市(县)...     

基于大数据分析下的气候模型

为研究全球变暖与极寒天气间的关系,对加拿大13个省代表性测站10年的观测数据进行时空变化趋势分析,采用经验正交函数(EOF)寻找海洋表面温度历史数据的变化规律。另外利用BP神经网络建立了年平均温度、日降水量与地球吸热、散热、海表面温度、当地纬度间的关系,预测未来25年气候的变化,并建立了"极寒天气"与气候变化的关系模型。研究表明:高纬度地区温度、降水量普遍较低,同经度地区的温度差异较小且降水量变化不大;加拿大地区温度呈周期性变化,符合北半球的季节变化特征;北大西洋的东部与其他海洋的温度是反相关的,西太平洋南北回归线附近的海洋表面温度升高;"极寒天气"出现频率与气候变化有一定关系,局地极寒现象与全球变暖的大趋势并不矛盾。本研究为人们认识和理解"全球变暖"提供了一个新的思路。     

高空西北气流下铜仁东部特大暴雨的预报分析及思考

利用贵州省预报业务常规、地面自动站加密观测资料、NCEP/FNL1°×1°再分析资料、业务数值预报模式,分析2020年6月29日铜仁市东部高空西北气流影响下的特大暴雨环境场特征,地面中小尺度场特征以及3家数值预报模式检验,初步分析产生此次特大暴雨的可能成因是在副高东南退,东北冷涡槽后高空西北气流维持,低层冷平流下传西输,地面辐合维持增强为涡旋,地面东路弱冷空气侵入,能量锋区斜压性增强;短临监测发现雷达回波有列车效应,低层辐合高层辐散的共轭配置,中层气旋式辐合;初步得出了西北气流影响下弱天气尺度环境场的铜仁市东部暴雨的预报着眼点。     

不同天气现象下毕节高温特征及预报回归检验分析

利用毕节2010—2019年观测资料,分析不同天气现象下日最高气温特征,建立高温模型,并对近5 a 24 h高温进行检验,得出如下结论：(1)毕节高温日变化在夏季最稳定,春季波动最大。气温日较差晴天最大,阴天最小,多云时略大于阴间多云。(2)毕节8～10成云出现频率高达65.7%,夏季晴天频率波动大,春、夏季多云频率较高,且按天气现象分类统计月平均高温时,其峰值均出现在7月。(3) 24 h高温预报准确率月、季变化特征明显,夏季准确率最高,较最低的冬季高出21.4%,在区别天气现象的情况下,阴雨天时预报准确率最高,多云时最低,其中12月多云时最低为25%。(4)回归模型分析发现不同季节同种天气现象24 h高温预报影响因子权重差异明显,日照时数和平均本站气压对模型影响程度较高。不同季节晴天影响因子差异最大,拟合效果最好时段在夏季,平均估计误差为1.2℃,估计误差最大在冬季,平均估计误差为1.7℃。     

东亚沙尘区域时空变化特征分析

沙尘天气是东亚地区常见的灾害性天气之一,强沙尘天气的发生不仅导致建筑物倒塌、人畜伤亡、植被破坏,还会导致火灾、空气污染等环境问题,对人体健康、社会经济活动及其全球沙尘循环产生重要影响。然而从东亚地区沙尘天气在长时间序列区域特征角度上系统分析的研究较少。基于此,本文利用1981—2019年东亚地区697个地面气象站点沙尘数据,分析了其区域时空分布特征。结果表明:空间上,东亚沙尘天气集中在位于内陆干旱区的蒙古国和中国西北地区,其中弱沙尘天气集中在中国北方地区,而强沙尘天气则集中在蒙古国。月变化上,东亚沙尘天气集中在春季(3—5月份),在相对低纬度的中国青藏高原北麓沙尘天气3月份最多,位于中纬度的中国北方大部分地区4月份最多,而较高纬度的哈萨克斯坦东部和蒙古国5月份最多。年际变化上,40a间东亚沙尘呈减少趋势,尤其是在2000年之后多项生态工程的有效实施下中国北方大部分区域沙尘天气显著减少,但近几年内蒙古中西部地区强沙尘天气呈增长趋势;在生态环境较脆弱的蒙古国和塔克拉玛干沙漠等区域弱沙尘天气和强沙尘天气均呈增长趋势。本研究对准确地掌握东亚沙尘分布特征和防范沙尘灾害具有重要意义。     

基于广义回归神经网络的行星际/太阳风参数和地磁指数的紫外极光强度建模

极光卵极光强度的空间分布是太阳风-磁层-电离层能量耦合过程的重要表现,并且随着空间环境参数和地磁指数的变化而变化,是空间天气的重要指示器.建立合适的极光强度模型对亚暴的预测以及磁层动力学的研究具有重要意义.本文基于Polar卫星的紫外极光成像仪(Ultraviolet Imager,UVI)数据,采用两种不同的极光强度表征方法,即曲线拟合方法(从UVI图像数据中提取极光强度沿磁余纬方向上的曲线特征,Curve Feature along the Magnetic Co-latitude Direction of the Auroral Intensity,CFMCD_AI)和网格化方法(从UVI图像数据中提取极光强度的网格化特征,Gridding Feature of the Auroral Intensity,GF_AI),来构造极区极光强度特征数据库.然后,利用该数据库,采用广义回归神经网络(Generalized Regression Neural Network,GRNN)构建了以行星际/太阳风参数(行星际磁场三分量、太阳风速度和密度)和...     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Introduction to Climatology for the Tropics . J. O. Ayoade. Conservation and Management of Natural Resources in the United States . Charles F. Bennett. The Keeping of Animals: Adaptation and Social Relations in Livestock Producing Communities . Riva Berleant-Schiller and Eugenia Shanklin, ed. The Evolution of Geographic Thought in America: A Kentucky Root Wilford A. Bladen and Pradyumna P. Karan, eds. Latin America: Geographical Perspectives , 2nd ed. Harold Blakemore and Clifford T. Smith, ed. The Rural Real Estate Market. Department of Geography Publication Series, No. 18 . Chris Bryant. Urban Geomorphology in Drylands . R. U. Cooke, D. Brunsden, J. C. Doornkamp, and D. K. C. Jones with contributions by J. Griffiths, P. Knott, R. Potter, and R. Russell. Italian Geography, 1960–1980. Meeting of the Status of the Geographic Research in Italy, 1960–1980. Treated under the auspices of Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche and organized by Istituto di Geografia Umana della Facoltà di Lettere e Filosofia dell'Università degli Studi di Milano , Giacomo Corna Pellecrini and Carlo Brusa, eds. The Changing Fenland . H. C. Darby. The Future for the City Centre . R. L. Davies and A. G. Champion, eds. Saudi Arabia, Energy, Developmental Planning, and Industrialization . Ragaei El Mallakh, Dorothea H. El Mallakh, eds. For We Are Sold, I and My People: Women and Industry in Mexico's Frontier . Maria Patricia Fernández-Kelly. The Great Lakes Forest: An Environmental and Social History . Susan L. Flader, ed. Regional Transformation and Industrial Revolution: A Geography of the Yorkshire Woolen Industry . Derek Gregory Crime in City Politics . Anne Heinz, Herbert Jacob and Robert L. Lineberry, eds. Revitalizing Cities . H. Briavel Holcomb and Robert A. Beauregard. Cartographic Relief Presentation . Eduard Imhof. H. J. Steward, Trans. Soviet Union: A Geographical Survey . S. V. Kalesnik and V. F. Pavlenko, ed. Cognition and Environment . Stephen Kaplan and Rachel Kaplan. Environmental Protection: The International Dimension . David A. Kay and Harold K. Jacobsen, eds. Mathematical Programming Methods for Geographers and Planners , James Killen. Gentrification Amid Urban Decline: Strategies for America's Older Cities . Michael H. Lang. The North Atlantic Sulphur System . Risto Laulajainen. The Jerusalem Cathedra: Studies in the History, Archaeology, Geography and Ethnography of the Land of Israel, Vol. 2 . Lee I. Levine ed. Jerusalem and Detroit: Recreation Planning and Management . Stanely R. Lieber and Daniel R. Fesenmaier, eds. Heartland and Hinterland: A Geography of Canada . L. D. McCann, ed. Scarborough Where We Live: The Residential Districts of Minneapolis and St. Paul . Judith A. Martin and David A. Lanegran. California: The Geography of Diversity . Crane S. Miller and Richard S. Hyslop. Palo Alto The Dilemma of Amazonian Development . Emilio F. Moran, ed. Boulder Nuclear Waste: Socioeconomic Dimensions of Long-Term Storage . Steve H. Murdock, F. Larry Leistritz, and Rita R. Hamm, eds. Boulder Communism and the Politics of Inequalities . Daniel N. Nelson, ed. The Los Angeles Metropolis . Howard J. Nelson. Dubuque An Historical Geography of Urban System Development: Tidewater Virginia in the 18th Century . James O'Mara. Procedures and Standards for a Multipurpose Cadastre . East Asia: Geographical and Historical Approaches to Foreign Area Studies . Clifton W. Pannell, ed. Dubuque Mackinder: Geography as an Aid to Statecraft . W. H. Parker. Beyond the Urban Fringe: Land Use Issues of Nonmetropolitan America . Rutherford H. Platt and George Macinko, eds. Recreation Geography of the USSR . V. S. Preobrazhensky and V. M. Krivosheyev, eds. Missouri: A Geography . Milton D. Rafferty The Invisible Farmers: Women in Agricultural Production . Carolyn E. Sachs. Cayman Islands Seashore Vegetation: A Study in Comparative Biogeography . Jonathan D. Sauer. Hillslope Materials and Processes . Michael J. Selby. Housing in Britain: The Post-War Experience . John R. Short The Study of Population: Elements, Patterns and Processes . George A. Schnell and Mark Stephen Monmonier. Columbus The Soviet Union: A Systematic Geography . Leslie Symons, ed. The Ottoman Slave Trade and Its Suppression . Ehud R. Toledano. The Impact of Recession on Industry, Employment and the Regions, 1976–1981 . Alan R. Townsend. Landslides and Their Control , 2nd ed. Quido Záruba and Vojtech Mencl. Translated from the Czech by H. Zárubová and V. Mencl.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Books Reviewed in this article: Lob Trees in the Wilderness . Clifford and Isabel Ahlgren . Satellite Microwave Remote Sensing . T. D. Allan , ed. Sunbelt Cities: Politics and Growth Since World War II . Richard M. Bernard and Bradley R. Rice , eds. Legacy of Minneapolis: Preservation Amid Change . John R. Borchert , David Gebhard , David Lanegran , and Judith A. Martin . Bloomington, MN: Preparing a Historic Preservation Ordinance. Richard J. Roddewig . The Mountains of Northeastern Tasmania, A Study of Alpine Geomorphology . Nel Caine . Introductory Cartography . John Campbell . Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Changing Climate . Manual of Remote Sensing, Second Edition . 2 Vols. Robert N. Colwell , ed.-in-chief; David S. Simonett and John E. Estes , vol. eds. Remote Sensing in Meteorology, Oceanography and Hydrology . A. P. Cracknell , ed. Multidimensional Scaling . Mark L. Davison . Environmental Karst . Percy H. Dougherty , ed. The Urban Environment . Ian Douglas . Geomorphology of Europe . Clifford Embleton , ed. An Introduction to South Asia . B. H. Farmer . Great Geological Controversies . A. Hallam . Hazardous Waste Management: In Whose Backyard? Michalann Harthill , ed. Energy for Subsistence . Margaret Haswell . Perspective on Ratzel's Political Geography . James M. Hunter . Economic Deposits and their Tectonic Setting . Charles S. Hutchison . Energy Risk Assessment . Herbert Inhaber . Discovering the Vernacular Landscape . John Brinckerhoff Jackson . Climate and Energy Systems: A Review of Their Interactions . Jill Jäger . Dilemmas in Regional Policy . Antoni Kuklinski and J. G. Lambooy , eds. California Farmland: A History of Large Agricultural Landholdings . Ellen Liebman . The Spatial Organization of New Land Settlement in Latin America . Jacob O. Maos . Dark Continent: Africa as Seen by Americans . Michael McCarthy . Westport, CT: Climatology: An Introduction . John E. Oliver and John J. Hidore . Columbus, OH: The Geography of Warfare . Patrick O'Sullivan and Jesse W. Miller . The Expanding City. Essays in Honour of Professor Jean Gottmann . John Patten , ed. Scotland's Environment During the Last 30,000 Years . Robert J. Price . Integrated Urban Models . S. H. Putman . Development and the Environmental Crisis: Red or Green Alternatives? Michael Redclift .     

天津城市热岛效应对海风(锋)环流影响的数值模拟试验

利用中尺度数值天气模式TJ-WRF,通过对发生在天津城区的局地雷暴天气个例进行模拟,重点通过改变模式中下垫面土地利用类型进行敏感性模拟试验,研究天津城市热岛对海风(锋)环流强度及移动速度等的影响。结果表明:不同土地利用类型城市下垫面造成的城市热岛效应不同,当城市周边郊区下垫面土地类型改为城市建筑用地时,城市热岛效应更加明显且影响范围明显扩大;当城市下垫面改为旱作农地和牧场时,天津城区附近没有出现城市热岛效应。当海风(锋)环流向城区方向移动还未到城区附近时,城市热岛对其有明显加强和加速作用,城市热岛效应越明显其对海风(锋)环流的加强和加速作用越明显,海风(锋)环流移动加快的速度比没有城市热岛时快9.3km·h~(-1)。当海风(锋)环流移动到城区附近时与城市热岛环流相遇,海风(锋)环流受到城市热岛环流阻挡其移速又迅速减慢,其后侧气流南、北分支绕流和向上爬升现象变得明显,两环流相遇叠加后辐合上升运动也明显加强;城市热岛效应越明显其对海风(锋)环流的阻挡作用越明显,海风(锋)环流的移动速度减慢得越多,两环流相遇叠加后的辐合上升运动就越强。另外在向城区移动过程中,海风(锋)环流会使其经过地区低层空气增湿降温,但其后侧湿空气层厚度会因城市热岛效应的存在而明显减小;城市热岛效应越明显,海风(锋)环流后侧湿空气层厚度减小得越明显。     

青藏高原地表位涡密度强迫对2008年1月中国南方降水过程的影响Ⅱ:数值模拟

青藏高原东坡近地表的辐合能够增加地表的位涡密度（PVD）。高耸的青藏高原与等熵面相切, 其东坡近地表增加的位涡密度成为等熵面边界上的位涡密度强迫源。利用IAP/LASG FAMIL全球大气环流模式探究青藏高原地表位涡密度增长对2008年初中国华南地区雨雪灾害天气形成的影响。首先与观测资料对比发现, 通过张弛逼近动力初始化, 在参照试验中, 模式能够比较合理地再现青藏高原东部的地表位涡密度增长和1月24-27日中国华南的大气环流场及降水场。而在高原的地表位涡密度增长减弱的敏感性试验中高原下游区域特别是华南沿海、广西到山东一带的降水明显减小甚至消失。对结果的分析表明:青藏高原区域的地表位涡密度增长在低空能够增强中国华南沿海地区的南风和水汽输送以及负的绝对涡度平流输送;在高空, 高原上产生的正的位涡密度沿西风环流向下游输送, 形成高层正的绝对涡度平流。从而在高原下游形成绝对涡度平流随高度增强的大尺度环流背景, 有利于上升运动发展。同时, 高原地表位涡密度增长在低空所激发的气旋式环流增加了华南的水汽输送, 最终激发了华南极端降水的产生。该个例模拟的结果证实了青藏高原东部的地表位涡密度强迫激发其下游极端天气发生的一种新机制。