SOME NEW UNDERSTANDINGS OF LAND-SURFACE PROCESSES IN ARID AREA FROM THE HEIFE*

The survey for the HEIFE(Atmosphere-Land Surface Processes Experiment at Heihe River Basin,Western China) is given in the paper.The following basic subjects for land-surface processes in arid areas are studied:(1) the general characteristics of the energy budget on ground surface in arid areas;(2) the parameterization of the land surface processes;(3) the interaction between oasis and its desert circumstances,a special phenomenon in arid areas.The analysis shows that the sensible heat flux in the surface energy budget is in the majority,and the latent heat flux may be neglected.The influence of atmospheric stratification stability on the turbulent transfer of energy and substance must be considered in parameterization of land surface processes in arid areas.The "cold island effect" phenomenon in oasis and the "humidity inversion" phenomenon in desert near oasis are the result of the interaction between them.The results would improve the understanding of land surface processes in arid areas.     

Verification of the motion fields over Southeast Asia by the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble forecast

The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region.     

Patterns in the Turkish reinsurance claim data, 1998–2002: An application of the extreme value theory

The devastating 1999 Marmara and Düzce earthquakes led to a significant increase in the earthquake studies in Turkey in geological, engineering and financial aspects. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) has a range of applications from stock market changes to natural disasters like floods and hurricanes. Here EVT is fitted to the ordinary and earthquake reinsurance claims of Turkey.     

2001年全球重大气候事件概述

全球气候仍持续偏暖。亚洲大部出现异常冷冬，许多地区遇到数十年未见的风雪严寒；美国冬季也连续遭受暴风雪袭击。东亚、南亚、中亚有西亚发生了大范围的持久干旱，南亚、东南亚夏季暴雨频繁，造成严重洪涝灾害。欧洲、非洲及南美洲的许多国家和地区降水异常偏多，导致不同程度的洪水，俄罗斯西伯利亚地区发生百年不遇的大洪水。北大西洋飓风较常年显著偏多，西北太平洋台风也给沿海地区带来严重灾害。     

新疆雷暴天气过程分型

对新疆39a雷暴天气资料的普查，得到367次雷暴天气过程，归结出4种天气形势，雷暴天气由冷锋和中尺度高压造成。     

The rate of grain release by pore-ice sublimation in cold-aeolian environments

Pore‐ice sublimation is a prerequisite for aeolian activity in cold environments where surface sediments hold significant amounts of frozen water. Few quantitative studies have defined the rate of grain release from cemented surfaces by pore‐ice sublimation. In 1996–1997, controlled field experiments at Presqu'ile Beach, Ontario, were implemented to measure sediment release from frozen surfaces. The release rates were compared to the local wind regime, ambient temperature and humidity. In additional field experiments, the effect of sediment water content on grain release by sublimation was examined. From the experimental results, an equation which predicts grain release based on local wind speed, ground temperature, humidity, and surface water content is proposed. Predicted release rates show reasonable agreement with natural deflation measured on the beach at Presqu'ile Provincial Park.     

北京地区3500a来的气候与环境变迁——兼论昆明湖的沧桑

通过对北京颐和园昆明湖中沉积物的沉积特征的研究,结合历史记载,对昆明湖水域的形成时间和发展过程有了深入的了解,据此对北京地区3500a以来的气候与环境变迁作出了科学的划分,为探讨北京地区未来的气候变化趋势将会有所启迪。     

遥感技术在高寒山区1:25万区域地质调查中的应用研究

针对高寒山区1：25万区调野外工作条件差、时间短，植被覆盖度低、遥感影像质量好的特点，提出了遥感影像解释、遥感标志剖面解译新概念，以及不同工作区用不同大法的新思路。研究、实践认为，利用遥感技术开展高寒山区区域地质调查能减少野外工作量，缩短周期，节约经费，提高调查质量和精度。     

中尺度自忆模式在强降水预报中的应用

根据大气自忆性原理提出的回溯时间积分格式应用于中尺度格点模式MM5,构建了中尺度自忆模式SMM5并做了短期强降水预报的实验.结果表明,SMM5模式与MM5模式相比,由于使用了多个时刻的场资料,预报精度有了明显的提高, SMM5预报的最大雨区的中心位置与降水量也比MM5更接近实际观测场.     

甘肃省1994～2001年极端干旱气候特征研究

利用甘肃省80站月降水量资料，对1994—2001年连续8a极端干旱气候持续时间、空间分布、干旱影响程度、相似年等进行研究。得出1995年、1997年、2000年是近8a中干旱量严重年，对农业、水资源、生态环境的影响最大。