外力扰动加剧与澜沧—耿马大地震的爆发

构造运动强烈、不断发生强震的云南地壳,可能经常有部分区域处于不稳定状态,外力也正是在此基础上才得以对地震活动显示出明显的调制效应。1988年11月6日澜沧—耿马7.6级、7.2级大地震前的大量观测资料表明,云南地区,特别是澜沧—耿马附近地区又再次出现了类似1970年通海7.7级、1974年大关7.1级和1976年龙陵7.4级大地震之前,曾发生过的那种地表涝旱剧变和大气压力巨涨落现象。这种震前的外部异常扰动具有很强的重复性,在对应地震上也显示了很强的应验性,故其很有可能在云南未来7级大地震的监视预报中发挥作用。     

震源系统不稳定度指标和强震短临预报

在探讨震源系统不稳定产生的物理基础前提下，应用调制模式提出了利用小震日频次起伏加剧与外因的相关性进行强震的短临时间预报的设想，具体提出了调制小震频次起伏加剧的两个判别震源系统不稳定度的指标λ＿１和λ＿２。前者为单因子调制指标，后者为多因子调制或多因子调制强化指标。关于大震的地点预报，应用立交模式短临阶段出现调制小震通过未来大震的共轭小震活动条带进行预报。     

Large-sample hydrology: recent progress,guidelines for new datasets and grand challenges

ABSTRACT

Large-sample hydrology (LSH) relies on data from large sets (tens to thousands) of catchments to go beyond individual case studies and derive robust conclusions on hydrological processes and models. Numerous LSH datasets have recently been released, covering a wide range of regions and relying on increasingly diverse data sources to characterize catchment behaviour. These datasets offer novel opportunities, yet they are also limited by their lack of comparability, uncertainty estimates and characterization of human impacts. This article (i) underscores the key role of LSH datasets in hydrological studies, (ii) provides a review of currently available LSH datasets, (iii) highlights current limitations of LSH datasets and (iv) proposes guidelines and coordinated actions to overcome these limitations. These guidelines and actions aim to standardize and automatize the creation of LSH datasets worldwide, and to enhance the reproducibility and comparability of hydrological studies.     

作用于南海北部地壳岩体的外场力

用光弹等色线与地震震中密集程度对照法,得到本研究区等效外场力的主要特点为:(1)非匀布荷载;(2)方向大致为:东—中部在N13～79°之间;西北部为SN向;西部在N51～78°之间;西南部在N25～69°E之间。     

Reliability checking for GNSS baseline and network processing

Reliability analysis is inseparably connected with the formulation of failure scenarios, and common test statistics are based on specific assumptions. This is easily overlooked when processing observation differences. Poor failure identification performance and misleading pre-analysis results, mainly meaningless minimum detectable biases and external reliability measures, are the consequence. A reasonable failure scenario for use with differenced GNSS observations is formulated which takes into account that individual outliers in the original data affect more than one processed observation. The proper test statistics and reliability indicators are given for use with correlated observations and both batch processing and Kalman filtering. It is also shown that standardized residuals and redundancy numbers fail completely when used with double differenced observations.

Optimal rural land use allocation in central China: Linking the effect of spatiotemporal patterns and policy interventions

Rural land use development is experiencing a transition stage of socioeconomic and land use development in China. Historic land use transition process and policy interventions have key influence on the applicability of land use allocation solutions in future land use management. Strategic land use allocation is therefore required to possess a good adjustment capability to the transition process. Although heuristic optimization methods have been promising to solve land use allocation problems, most of them ignored the spatially explicit effect of historic land use transition and policies. To help resolve this issue, this study aims to optimize future land use pattern in the context of rural land use development. We took Yunmeng County, one of the typical major grain producing and rapidly urbanizing areas in central China, as a case study and solved the sustainable land use allocation problem by using an improved heuristic optimization model. The model was constructed based on the integration of a spatial discrete particle swarm optimization and cellular automata-Markov simulation approach. The spatiotemporal land use patterns and policy interventions were represented by the CA-Markov as in spatially explicit transition rules, and then incorporated into the discrete PSO for optimal land use solutions. We examined the influence of the joint effect of spatiotemporal land use patterns and policy interventions on the land use allocation outcome. Our results demonstrate the robustness and potential of the proposed model, and, more importantly, indicate the significance of incorporating the spatiotemporal land use patterns and policy interventions into rural land use allocation.     

海浪外观波数谱与谱宽度最优确定

本文将外频谱转化为外观波数谱并设计了计算处理格式,提出了一种谱宽度参量的优化方法,为进一步研究海浪特征资料提取谱值和应用奠定基础。数值试验验证了此方法的可行性,但在高海况下风浪过程复杂,优化出的谱宽度偏大,外观谱解析形式需进一步改进     

Forests and floods: Using field evidence to reconcile analysis methods

The extent to which forests, relative to shorter vegetation, mitigate flood peak discharges remains controversial and relatively poorly researched, with only a few significant field studies. Considering the effect purely of change of vegetation cover, peak flow magnitude comparisons for paired catchments have suggested that forests do not mitigate large floods, whereas flood frequency comparisons have shown that forests mitigate frequencies over all magnitudes of flood. This study investigates the apparent inconsistency using field-based evidence from four contrasting field programmes at scales of 0.34–3.1 km². Repeated patterns are identified that provide strong evidence of real effects with physical explanations. Magnitude and frequency comparisons are both relevant to the impact of forests on peak discharges but address different questions. Both can show a convergence of response between forested and grassland/logged states at the highest recorded flows but the associated return periods may be quite variable and are subject to estimation uncertainty. For low to moderate events, the forested catchments have a lower peak magnitude for a given frequency than the grassland/logged catchments. Depending on antecedent soil saturation, a given storm may nevertheless generate peak discharges of the same magnitude for both catchment states but these peaks will have different return periods. The effect purely of change in vegetation cover may be modified by additional forestry interventions, such as road networks and drainage ditches which, by effectively increasing the drainage density, may increase peak flows for all event magnitudes. For all the sites, forest cover substantially reduces annual runoff.     

痕量氢观测环境及供电系统建设

应用ATG-6118H痕量氢在线自动分析仪在水井类观测点观测过程中发现,外界观测环境的变化对于痕量氢浓度的观测存在一定干扰。文章依据宁河痕量氢观测井的观测环境及供电系统的改造过程,对2017年11月11日井房改造完成前后的痕量氢浓度数据进行分析论述,为该仪器的后续观测提供一些借鉴经验。     

Bottom-up control of phytoplankton growth in spring blooms in Central Yellow Sea,China

The source and significance of three nutrients – nitrogen, phosphorous and silicon – were investigated by a modified dilution method performed on seawater samples from the Central Yellow Sea (CYS), in spring blooming period of 2007. This modified dilution method accounted for the phytoplankton growth rate, microzooplankton grazing mortality rate, the internal and external nutrient pools, as well as nutrients supplied through remineralization by microzooplankton grazing. The results indicate that phytoplankton growth during the bloom is mostly contributed by internal nutrient pools (K_I=0.062–1.730). The external nutrient pools (K_E=<0–0.362) are also of importance for phytoplankton growth during the bloom at some sampling sites. Furthermore, the contribution of the recycled-nutrient pool by remineralization (K_R=<0–0.751) is significant when microzooplankton grazing rate was higher than 0.5 d⁻¹ during the spring phytoplankton blooms in the Central Yellow Sea. Compared with internal phosphorus, internal nitrogen and silicon contribute more to the phytoplankton production at most sampling stations.