龙潭隧道围岩收敛变形灰色系统预测模型

基于龙潭隧道开挖过程中的围岩收敛变形资料,通过对具有一定随机离散性和波动性的位移-时间顺序的数据列进行累加处理,建立了GM(1,1)灰色预报模型,预测了围岩收敛变形的未来趋势,并对预测位移进行一次累减,得到位移速率预测公式,预测围岩收敛趋于稳定的时间。两个断面的预测值和实测值的比较结果表明所建预测模型可取得比较好的效果。     

基于遗传模拟退火算法的神经网络模型在陕西省需水预测中的应用

神经网络模型是近年来在需水预测方面应用较为广泛的一种方法,在陕西省的需水预测中根据实际情况采用遗传模拟退火算法对其进行优化,预测的结果和其他预测方法进行对比,证明该方法预测的结果较为合理,能够在类似的预测中加以推广应用.     

南岭东段龙源坝复式岩体La-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄及其地质意义

龙源坝岩体是南岭花岗岩体群的一个重要组成部分,位于南岭东段,研究程度十分薄弱,至今未见可靠的同位素年龄报道。本文在运用阴极发光技术对岩体中的锆石进行细致的内部结构分析的基础上,利用La-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb原位定年方法进行了同位素年龄测定。结果表明,龙源坝岩体是一个印支期—燕山期多期次岩浆侵入形成的复式岩体,其中主体形成于印支期,尤其是印支早期。印支早期花岗岩的单颗粒锆石U-Pb年龄为241.0±5.9Ma和241.0±1.3Ma(两个样品),印支晚期花岗岩为210.9±3.8Ma,燕山期正长岩为149.4±1.2Ma。龙源坝岩体在时代和成因上不同于其东侧的陂头岩体,但相同于北侧的诸广山岩体有亲缘关系,因此在探讨该区的铀成矿前景时,应把诸广山与龙源坝两岩体整合起来考虑,并加强对龙源坝岩体的铀矿找矿工作。     

伊利石矿床成因类型及应用

伊利石矿是一种粘土类矿产,其成因类型多样,应用领域广泛,本文主要对伊利石的成因类型及主要应用领域进行初步的探讨.     

渗流作用下的江河岸坡冲刷变形分析

岸坡地形随河流上游来水来沙、河势变化等因素而不断变化,直接影响岸坡稳定性。江河水流、岸坡渗流均对岸坡水下地形变化有很大的影响。通过分析泥沙受力条件和冲刷特性,应用在室内水槽进行的不同泥沙粒径在多种水流条件下的冲刷率试验研究成果,在岸坡泥沙受力分析基础上推导了崩岸冲刷率公式,并以算例具体说明江河水流和岸坡渗流对其冲刷变形过程的影响。     

GIS支持下的土壤重金属污染预测预警研究

面对日益严重的土壤重金属污染问题,必须采用快速高效的方法对污染趋势做出预测预警。本研究建立了土壤重金属污染预警模型和土壤重金属污染超标年限预测模型,并在GIS技术支持下,开发了基于ArcView GIS的预警预测程序模块,实现了对土壤重金属污染的预警预测。最后以北京市及其近郊区为实例,对该区重金属污染进行了预警并对Pb元素超标年限进行了预测,取得了较好的预警预测结果。     

Quantifying volcanic ash fall hazard to electricity infrastructure

Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10 500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~ 0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures.     

顾及有效角动量与IGS超快解数据的极移预报方法

极移高精度预报对卫星实时定轨、深空探测器导航等应用至关重要.本文提出了一种联合有效角动量(Effective Angular Momentum, EAM)与国际全球卫星导航系统服务组织(International GNSS Service, IGS)提供的超快解数据进行极移预报的方法.该方法基于IGS超快解数据得到的极移第1天预报值, 对引入EAM得到的极移预报结果进行校正, 获得联合预报值.首先, 基于LS(Least Squares)+AR(Auto-Regressive)模型实现了引入EAM的极移预报, 相对国际地球自转与参考系统服务组织(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的公报A数据, 在超短期(第1~10天)预报跨度可以得到更高精度的极移预报结果, 其中大气和海洋角动量发挥了主要作用.其次, 鉴于IGS超快解数据精度高、更新快的特点, 以IGS超快解为基础数据, 基于LS+AR模型可以得到极移第1天预报值, 其精度显著优于IERS公报A的极移第1天预报值.最后, 利用第1天预报值对顾及有效角动量的预报结果进行校正获得了联合预报值, 进一步提高了超短期极移预报精度(尤其是第1~5天).2020年7月24日—2022年1月30日间的联合预报结果表明: 第1~20天的预报值总体优于IERS公报A的预报值.其中, 第1~10天的预报精度显著提升, 在预报第1天, X、Y方向预报值相对公报A预报值的精度提升分别可达39.5%~62.3%和24.5%~51.9%;在预报第10天, 相对公报A预报值的精度提升分别可达28.0%~28.9%和21.9%~23.4%.

     

南北带强震年度预测能力估计

对中国地震局原分析预报中心测震学科1988～1999年度划定的南北地震带强震(M≥7)危险区进行了回顾和分析。 结果表明, 从过程角度研究前兆地震活动图像及其演变是年度和中短期强震预测的有效途径, 这为南北地震带强震震情跟踪提供了条件。     

北京大海坨4.9级地震前白家疃井地热地形变前兆异常

北京大海坨ＭＬ＝４．９地震前，白家疃地热，地形变两种观测项目，同时观测记录到明显的异常变化，具有短期和短促，突发的临震异常特点，采取针对性的分析方法，结果较好，为单台项（前兆方法）综合预报提供了震兆观测实例。