大兴安岭白音诺尔铅锌矿控矿构造研究与找矿预测

成矿物质来源及控矿因素是矿床学研究的前沿课题。过去人们认为成矿物质主要源于含矿围岩的萃取。因此,找矿重点是寻找矿源层。但是,更多的事实表明,成矿物质主要来自深源,通过地幔热柱多级演化迁移至地壳,并在幔枝构造较好的控矿构造空间聚集成矿。本文探讨了大兴安岭中南段的成矿作用,总结了该区的主要控矿构造,指出了不同级别构造对成矿的控制作用,并预测了不同级别的成矿靶区。     

江西省地质灾害-气象预警预报系统研究

论文采用了降雨特征（用降雨诱发指数表征）与地质环境条件（以地质灾害敏感性指数表征）进行叠加、分析,确定预警预报等级,建立地质灾害-预警预报模型的方法;提出了预警产品制作与发布、多普勒雷达跟踪、应急指导、反馈信息收集、灾情调查的地质灾害气象预警预报工作程序。对近几年江西省地质灾害-预警预报效果分析,总结了地质灾害-预警预报成功与失败的经验教训,提出今后的工作设想与建议。应用基于GIS的地质灾害预警预报系统已在近几年的地质灾害-气象预警预报中不断完善,预警预报精度得到提高,防灾减灾效果明显,对保护人民生命财产安全发挥了重要作用。     

Open source, spatial analysis, and activity-travel behaviour research: capabilities of the aspace package

This paper reports on recent experience with the development of aspace, an Open Source (OS) library for the geographic visualization and analysis of activity-travel behaviour. The paper begins with an overview of recent progress with respect to the convergence of Open Source technology, spatial analysis, and travel behaviour research. The remainder of the paper focuses on aspace; a collection of functions that, when combined with data describing the geographical location of daily activities, can be used to visualize and describe spatial properties of individual and household activity spaces. These properties include: size, orientation, shape, and the geographical dispersion of activity locations contained within the activity space. Several planar geometries are used to transform measurable spatial properties into intuitive objects for visualizing spatial patterns of activity participation. Experiments are conducted, using data from the first wave of the 2003 Toronto Travel Activity Panel Survey, to demonstrate the potential application of aspace for basic and applied policy-based research into activity-travel behaviour. The toolkit is distributed as a downloadable ‘package’ from the Open Source R Project for Statistical Computing.      

GM（1，1）动态模型在吴江市地下水水位预测中的应用

以吴江市地下水水位预测为例,详细阐述了地下水水位时间序列的GM（1,1）动态模型的原理和建立过程,并根据模型的预测值和实测值,对模型的精度进行了检验,结果表明,模型的预测精度达到了99．27％,等级属于Ⅰ级,具有实际的应用价值,为地下水资源的科学管理提供了依据。     

追忆李四光对防震减灾的贡献,以系统整体观指导防震应急

笔者在追忆李四光地震科学和防震减灾指导思想的基础上,提出了以系统整体观指导防震应急的新论点,包括:运用地壳运动整体观研究地震规律;应用地震预测整体观进行地震预测;划分活动性构造体系,研究构造活动性;加强综合监测,研究各种地震前兆和相关的自然变异的发展趋势;圈定地震风险区,制定防震应急预案等.并结合中国的实际情况进行了论述.     

扬州市6－7月份天气预报服务业务化系统

从地（市）级气象台的业务工作出发,试图建立通过微机实现的对上接收信息、对外预报服务、对下预报指导的三位一体的天气预报服务业务化系统,以发挥地（市）级气象台在经济建设和防灾减灾中的作用,推动天气预报和服务的现代化建设,把基层气象工作推向一个新的台阶。     

Using numerical modelling to evaluate tsunami hazard near the Kuril Island

A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of critical tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. We call a wave critical, if its impact on the coast is most hazardous.Using the Middle Kuril Island as an example, we present the results of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deep-water Bussol and Diana Straits.Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits the assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the location of the focus zone and their geometry.The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island, formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area.     

Evolution of the Bonneville shoreline scarp in west-central Utah: Comparison of scarp-analysis methods and implications for the diffusion model of hillslope evolution

Wave-cut pluvial shoreline scarps are ideal natural experiments in hillslope evolution because the ages of these scarps are often precisely known and because they form with a range of heights, alluvial textures, and microclimates (i.e., orientation). Previous work using midpoint-slope methods on pluvial scarps in the Basin and Range concluded that scarp evolution is nonlinear and microclimatically controlled. The purpose of this study was to further examine the influence of scarp height, texture and microclimate in an attempt to calibrate a nonlinear model of scarp evolution. To do this, over 150 profiles of the Bonneville shoreline in the adjacent Snake and Tule Valleys, west-central Utah were collected and analyzed by fitting the entire scarp profile to diffusion-equation solutions, taking into account uncertainty in the initial scarp angle. In contrast to previous studies, this analysis revealed no evidence for nonlinearity or microclimatic control. To understand the reason for this discrepancy, we undertook a systematic study of the accuracy of each scarp-analysis method. The midpoint-slope-inverse method was found to yield biased results, with systematically higher diffusion ages for young, tall scarps. The slope-offset method is unbiased but has limited resolution because it requires many scarp profiles to yield a single diffusion age. A method that incorporates the full scarp profile and uncertainty in the initial scarp angle was found to be the most accurate technique. The application of the full-scarp method to the Bonneville shoreline supports the use of a linear diffusion model for scarps up to 20 m in height. Scarp orientation had no discernable effect on diffusivity values. Soil texture was found to have a weak but significant inverse relationship with diffusivity values.     

Factors influencing the presence or absence of tributary-junction fans in the Iberian Range, Spain

This paper analyses the factors which influence the presence or absence of tributary-junction fans in the Iberian Range, northern Spain. Two valleys were selected, both characterised by wide variations in lithology, altitude, land use and plant cover. Two groups of factors were studied: those related to the internal characteristics of the drainage basins, which particularly control sediment generation; and those related to the characteristics of the depositional area which control accommodation space and main river power. Among the internal factors, the development of alluvial fans was related to: (i) the capacity of the basin to yield large volumes of sediment, (ii) the occurrence of intense human pressure until recent times, a good indicator of sediment yield, and (iii) the capacity of the basin to quickly increase discharge during rainstorms (discharge density and torrentiality). It is suggested that the areas that were intensively cultivated in the past, and have therefore been affected by intense erosion, have played a decisive role on the development of alluvial fans. This would imply that many of these alluvial fans have a relatively recent origin, perhaps related to the beginning of a widespread deforestation. The basins without alluvial fans are characterised by relatively steep hillslope gradients (that is, slopes that never were subjected to historical cultivation), low drainage densities and dense forest and shrub cover, mostly coinciding with high altitude basins composed of quartzite and shale bedrocks. Regarding the external factors, the shape, size and longitudinal gradient of the main river to which the fans are tributary are the most relevant conditioning factors determining the development of alluvial fans.     

Effect of supplemental feeding on spatial distribution and browse utilization by white-tailed deer in semi-arid rangeland

We investigate the risk that supplemental feeding of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) to improve trophy quality may degrade rangeland through overutilization of forage plants near the feeders. We divided a South Texas ranch into 6 areas (each 1100 ha). Supplemental feed was provided year-round in a centrally placed feeder in 3 areas, no supplement was provided in the 3 control areas. Radio-telemetry collars were fitted on 2 bucks and 2 does in each area. Spatial distribution of these deer was assessed using the CALHOME program. Feed supplementation did not alter home range size of does but did reduce their 50% core area. Bucks without supplemental feed showed 2 spatial strategies; sedentary bucks had home range distributions similar to supplemented bucks, while commuter bucks moved to supplemented areas during the breeding season. Browsing pressure near feeders and control sites was assessed by measuring consumption of seedlings set in arrays radiating from feeders and control points. Deer browsing was heavier near feeders than at the control sites, and the probability of a seedling being browsed increased with proximity to the feeder. We caution against long-term supplemental feeding in fixed locations because of the potential for localized range degradation around the feeders.