Characterizing parameter sensitivity and uncertainty for a snow model across hydroclimatic regimes

The National Weather Service (NWS) uses the SNOW17 model to forecast snow accumulation and ablation processes in snow-dominated watersheds nationwide. Successful application of the SNOW17 relies heavily on site-specific estimation of model parameters. The current study undertakes a comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of SNOW17 model parameters using forcing and snow water equivalent (SWE) data from 12 sites with differing meteorological and geographic characteristics. The Generalized Sensitivity Analysis and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm are utilized to explore the parameter space and assess model parametric and predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that SNOW17 parameter sensitivity and uncertainty generally varies between sites. Of the six hydroclimatic characteristics studied, only air temperature shows strong correlation with the sensitivity and uncertainty ranges of two parameters, while precipitation is highly correlated with the uncertainty of one parameter. Posterior marginal distributions of two parameters are also shown to be site-dependent in terms of distribution type. The SNOW17 prediction ensembles generated by the DREAM-derived posterior parameter sets contain most of the observed SWE. The proposed uncertainty analysis provides posterior parameter information on parameter uncertainty and distribution types that can serve as a foundation for a data assimilation framework for hydrologic models.     

试论中国内陆板块运动演化及与地震的关系

看似杂乱的中国构造形迹应是受2次大的板块运动作用形成的.第1次是西伯利亚板块运动从加里东期开始由北向南移动,大致形成山脉一盆地(海洋)相间的向南突出的巨大弧形,弧心在贝加尔一带,弧顶南部到泰国一带;西翼为北西向,从阿尔泰山到兴都库什一带;东翼为北东向,从大兴安岭到华南一带,将两翼遗留形迹与弧心联系勾画出向南突出的理想弧...     

我国北方沙尘暴年代际变化与北大西洋海气系统年代际变率的联系

分析了近50年我国北方沙尘暴的年代际变化和热盐环流(THC)的年代际变率的演变特征,发现沙尘暴与THC存在一定的联系.这种相互联系的演变过程大致是:THC与北大西洋涛动(NAO)有联系,NAO与西伯利亚冷高压有联系,而西伯利亚高压又影响北半球冷空气活动,最终影响我国北方沙尘暴的发生.结果表明,THC强(弱)→NAO弱(...     

云南黎明高山丹霞地貌成因及其演化模式

始新统红色磨拉石建造和裂隙网奠定黎明丹霞地质景观条件,岩石中富含各种致色元素,使丹霞峰林赤壁呈现多种颜色;内外动力共同作用,形成黎明地区分布范围广、极具独特性的高山丹霞地貌单体形态和组合形态。高山丹霞地貌的形成与演化,可分为四个主要阶段。     

鲁西北平原深层地下水动力场时空演化

深层地下水是鲁西北平原区特有的含水系统,具有分布范围广、埋藏深和开采恢复能力差等水文地质特征。近30年来的人工开采使天然流场发生了较大改变,形成多个规模不一、形态各异的超采漏斗。利用多年来区域研究成果和实测资料,在研究区域地下水循环系统的基础上,分析开采初期和开采条件下特征年份深层地下水动力场特征,研究鲁西北平原深层地下水演化程度。研究发现,近30年来,区域水头整体下降,地下水动力场发生了显著变化。除黄河三角洲全咸水区、莘县阳谷、嘉祥凸起周围降幅较小外,其余地区均大于20m,其中德州一武城、滨州-博兴、菏泽城区降幅均在60m以上,德州、滨州漏斗中心降幅大于100m。目前已造成德州、滨州、东营、菏泽、济宁等城区不同程度的地面沉降。     

Mid-IR (8–13 μm) images of the 21 μm,carbon rich proto-planetary nebulae

We present 9.7 and 11.8 m narrow band (/=10%) images of three carbon (C-) rich proto-planetary nebulae with an unusual 21 m feature: IRAS 07134+ 1005, IRAS 22272+5435, and IRAS 04296+3429. The images were taken at UKIRT using the Berkeley/IGPP/LEA mid-IR camera. All three objects have a bipolar shape adding to the existing evidence that C-rich PPNe are by nature bipolar. Furthermore, we find the same bipolar morphology in a previous study of the C-rich, young planetary nebula, IRAS 21282+5050. We believe these four objects form an evolutionary sequence which links the C-rich asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars with the C-rich planetary nebulae (PNe). From this evolutionary sequence, we conclude that bipolarity in C-rich PNe begins on the AGB and that the dynamical ages of these PPNe are in fair agreement with theoretical ages for a 0.6 M hydrogen burning core star.     

生态地层学及其研究进展

生态地层学(Ecostratigraphy)近年来才引起古生态学者和地层学者的注意和重视,它是地层学向纵深发展的一个自然趋向。在介绍与生态地层学有关的概念群落、居群、群落演替和群落取代等基础工,首次提出群落组这一生态地层单位术语,并将它和亚群落带、群落带、群落群作为系统的生态地层单位,并与生物地层和岩石地层单位进行了对比;最后简述了生态地层学研究的意义。