On evaluating the stability of the Baiyian ancient landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area,Yangtze River: a geological history analysis

Numerous landslides have occurred during the construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir of the Yangtze River. Although the underlying causal factor of these landslides was heavy rainfall, the construction process was the trigger of some of them. We report here a systematic study aimed at reconstructing the geological history of an ancient landslide and, based on our results, an evaluation of the role of the history on current landslide stability. Data from detailed field surveys and the studies on geological dating revealed that the Baiyian landslide was composed of five structural parts of different geological ages, such as a sliding belt, disturbed rocks, ancient colluvium, alluvium of the Yangtze River and slope wash. The succession of ancient climates, terraces and tectonic processes in the study area were examined from 300 ka ago. The evolutionary history of the Baiyian ancient landslide can be divided into five distinct stages: development, occurrence, deposition, collapse and disintegration. Some parts of the ancient landslide are currently prone to instability due to the combination effects of heavy rainfall and construction of the reservoir.     

2017年北京北部一次罕见强弓状飑线过程演变和机理

2017年7月7日下午至午夜,河北西北部和北京中北部发生了一次罕见的最大瞬时风力将近12级并伴有大冰雹的强弓状飑线过程,其触发、演变和维持机制等具有较高研究价值。综合多种观测资料和NCEP分析资料,利用“配料法”分析了该次飑线过程的环境条件、触发、演变、风暴结构和弓形回波的形成与维持机制。飑线发生在500 hPa冷涡西南部的前倾槽和低空急流形势下;超过2000 J/kg的对流有效位能（CAPE）、强0—6 km和0—3 km风垂直切变为弓状飑线及其相关超级单体的生成和维持、大冰雹和地面强风的形成提供了有利条件;较低的湿球温度0℃层（~3.8 km）是有利于大冰雹形成的融化层高度;对流层中层高达30℃温度露点差与大的垂直减温率造成环境大气具有强的下沉对流有效位能（DCAPE）,利于弓形回波和地面大风的形成。初始对流形成于西北风和西南偏西风之间的地面辐合线附近。地面大风和冰雹主要分布于低黑体亮温（TBB）和以正闪为主的闪电活跃处。雷达回波显示飑线先由线状对流系统发展成为团状超级单体对流系统,最后演变成弓状飑线。超级单体阶段和飑线阶段都有明显的回波悬垂、弱回波区、中气旋（飑线成熟后期为中涡旋）、强后侧入流及其伴随的入流缺口等;对流层中层急流和大的温度露点差是形成强下沉气流并发展出弓状特征的主要原因;大的对流有效位能和下沉对流有效位能以及强风垂直切变是飑线维持的原因。      

华西秋雨演变的新特征及其对大气环流的响应

华西(21°N-39°N,95°E-114°E)秋雨是中国秋季主要的气候特征之一,长时间连续降水对农作物生产带来不利影响.基于1961-2010年华西地区166个气象站逐日降水资料,综合降水量与降水日数两个因子定义了华西秋雨指数,采用EOF分析、小波分析等方法分析了该指数的演变和时空异常分布特征,以及秋雨异常分布型的大气环流背景.结果表明,华西秋雨有南北两个极大值中心,强度和范围在近50年中存在明显的年代际变化,进入21世纪,其北部秋雨区位置偏北、范围增大及强度增强;主要异常型为秋雨区东北东和西南西之间的反相变化和总体基本一致型;秋季,当东亚副热带西风急流中心西移,中心强风速带偏窄时,华西北部的上升运动加强,同时西太平洋副热带高压偏北、印缅槽偏深及水汽输送偏强偏北,有利于北部水汽辐合,华西秋雨出现北多西南少的异常型;反之亦然.     

济阳坳陷上古生界烃源岩生烃演化特征

济阳坳陷残留上古生界为石炭系—二叠系,大体上以无棣凸起—滨县凸起—陈家庄凸起为界,分为南、北两个区域,推测最大厚度位于惠民凹陷西部,可达1200m。烃源岩主要为煤、碳质泥岩及暗色泥岩,其中以太原组和山西组的煤层和暗色泥岩最发育。大致经历了印支期、燕山期及喜马拉雅期等三次埋藏—隆升旋回交替演化,初次生烃期为中三叠世末,最重要的二次生烃期为早第三纪末。上古生界受热史与埋藏史曲线具有相似性,说明构造-埋藏史是控制烃源岩热演化的主要因素。依据埋藏-生烃史的不同,可划分出四类构造演化组合。其中中凹新凸型生烃演化地区有利于寻找上古生界次生油气藏;中凸新凹型和中凹新凹型生烃演化地区有利于寻找古生古储型油气藏。     

Orbital effects on Mercury’s escaping sodium exosphere

We present results from coronagraphic imaging of Mercury’s sodium tail over a 7° field of view. Several sets of observations made at the McDonald Observatory since May 2007 show a tail of neutral sodium atoms stretching more than 1000 Mercury radii (R_m) in length, or a full degree of sky. However, no tail was observed extending beyond 120 R_m during the January 2008 MESSENGER fly-by period, or during a similar orbital phase of Mercury in July 2008. Large changes in Mercury’s heliocentric radial velocity cause Doppler shifts about the Fraunhofer absorption features; the resultant change in solar flux and radiation pressure is the primary cause of the observed variation in tail brightness. Smaller fluctuations in brightness may exist due to changing source rates at the surface, but we have no explicit evidence for such changes in this data set. The effects of radiation pressure on Mercury’s escaping atmosphere are investigated using seven observations spanning different orbital phases. Total escape rates of atmospheric sodium are estimated to be between 5 and 13 × 10²³ atoms/s and show a correlation to radiation pressure. Candidate sources of Mercury’s sodium exosphere include desorption by UV sunlight, thermal desorption, solar wind channeled along Mercury’s magnetic field lines, and micro-meteor impacts. Wide-angle observations of the full extent of Mercury’s sodium tail offer opportunities to enhance our understanding of the time histories of these source rates.     

鄂尔多斯盆地南部马家沟组成岩作用特征

通过对研究区16口钻井15条剖面数百片岩石薄片的详细鉴定,结合沉积史和区域地质特征,综合分析了主要目的层马家沟组的成岩作用类型及其特征。马家沟组储层的岩石类型主要为石灰岩和白云岩。石灰岩类型多样,主要有泥晶—微晶灰岩、微晶—亮晶颗粒灰岩及云斑灰岩等;白云岩以泥晶—微晶白云岩为主。主要的建设性成岩作用为白云石化作用和溶蚀作用;不利的成岩作用主要有重结晶、压实压溶、去白云石化、膏化等作用。在此基础上,进一步分析了鄂尔多斯盆地南部的成岩作用演化序列。     

2007年夏季两次强雷电过程的气象卫星资料分析

利用FY2一C、FY2一D高时空分辨率可见光云图和FY2一C云顶亮温资料,选取了2007年6月24—25日和7月10一11日2次强雷电过程,对雷电时空分布与强雷暴云团（MCS）演变特征的相关性进行了分析。结果表明：（1）对于不同MCS来说,落雷次数和落雷密度都与MCS的强度密切相关,即MCS强度越大,对流越强,落雷次数越多,落雷密度越大。（2）落雷集中的时段主要都出现在MCS成熟之前、水平尺度为中口尺度的时段内。（3）对于同一MCS来说,在MCS成熟之前,当前以及未来1h的落雷密集区都不是位于当前大范围较低亮温区所覆盖的区域,而是位于MCS移动方向前方和最低云顶亮温中心前方TBB梯度最大的区域内,未来1h的落雷密集区比当前的落雷密集区偏东30—50km。在MCS成熟之后,落雷密集区位于MCS主体外新生的尺度小、生命史短的雷暴云团附近TBB的密集区内。     

库车坳陷却勒地区新生代盐构造特征、演化及变形控制因素

本文利用野外地质调查结果、遥感资料、地震资料和钻、测井数据,建立了两条库车坳陷却勒地区的区域大剖面,约束却勒地区盐构造特征和演化,分析东、西段变形差异及差异形成过程,探讨构造变形控制因素。却勒地区发育的盐构造样式主要有盐底辟、盐焊接、盐撤凹陷、大型盐推覆体、外来盐席、盐枕、盐背斜和滑脱褶皱,其中,盐撤凹陷、盐背斜和滑脱褶皱仅发育于东段,造成东、西段构造变形差异。却勒地区盐构造分为3期:①渐新世—中新世吉迪克期为构造平静期,发育盐撤凹陷和盐底辟;②中新世康村期—上新世早期构造挤压微弱,发生早期褶皱作用,却勒盐丘继续发育,北部盐底辟中新世末停止发育;③上新世晚期—现今发生大规模逆冲推覆,是褶皱-冲断带主要形成时期,发育大型盐撤凹陷、外来盐席、盐推覆构造、盐背斜和滑脱褶皱。却勒地区东、西段盐构造变形差异主要形成于上新世晚期—现今(第3期)。喀拉玉尔滚右旋走滑断层为薄皮构造,调节了却勒地区东、西段前缘的变形差异。却勒地区构造变形主要受控于盐岩沉积范围、区域构造应力及强度、上覆层应变强度和差异负载(沉积负载和局部构造负载)。     

A new gnetalean macrofossil from the Early Cretaceous and its evolutionary significance

Modern gnetophytes consist of three families, i.e. the Ephedraceae, the Gnetaceae, and the Welwitschiaceae, which show diversified morphology. The basal group Ephedraceae possesses an extremely reduced female cone with only the uppermost pair/whorl being fertile, while both the Gnetaceae and the Welwitschiaceae bear female cones/spikes with multiple whorls of fertile bracts. Here, we describe a new ephedroid macrofossil, Liaoningia decussata Yang et Lin, gen. et sp. nov., from the Lower Cretaceous Yixian Formation of western Liaoning in China. This species has typical ephedroid morphology, e.g. the dichasial branching shoot system, swollen nodes, internodes having many fine longitudinal striations, and decussate phyllotaxy, lengthy linear leaves possessing two parallel veins, and female cones consisting of paired bracts. This new genus is similar to the Ephedraceae in its vegetative organs, but differs from the latter by the female spikes with multiple pairs of fertile bracts. In this respect Liaoningia is similar to both the Gnetaceae and the Welwitschiaceae, but distinctly differs from the latter two genera in its vegetative organs. As a result, our new genus shows intermediate morphology between the Ephedaceae and the other two families of the gnetophytes, and is probably a missing link in the evolutionary process from the Ephedraceae to the clade including the Gnetaceae and the Welwitschiaceae.     

Effect of streamflow forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation

Various hydrological forecast products have been applied to real-time reservoir operation, including deterministic streamflow forecast (DSF), DSF-based probabilistic streamflow forecast (pseudo-PSF, pPSF), and ensemble or probabilistic streamflow forecast (denoted as real-PSF, rPSF). DSF represents forecast uncertainty in the form of deterministic forecast errors, pPSF a conditional distribution of forecast uncertainty for a given DSF, and rPSF a probabilistic uncertainty distribution. Compared to previous studies that treat the forecast products as ad hoc inputs for reservoir operation models, this paper attempts to model the dynamic evolution of uncertainties involved in the various forecast products and explores their effect on real-time reservoir operation decisions. Through a hypothetical example of a single-objective real-time reservoir operation model, the results illustrate that forecast uncertainty exerts significant effects. Reservoir operation efficiency, as measured by a utility function, decreases as the forecast uncertainty increases but the magnitude depends on the forecast products used. In general, the utility of the reservoir operation with rPSF is nearly as high as the utility obtained with a perfect forecast. Meanwhile, the utilities of DSF and pPSF are similar to each other but not as high as rPSF. Moreover, streamflow variability and reservoir capacity can change the magnitude of the effects of forecast uncertainty, but not the relative merit of DSF, pPSF, and rPSF.