Ensemble modelling of ice cover for a reservoir affected by pumped‐storage operation and climate change

Ensemble modelling was used to assess the robustness of projected impacts of pumped‐storage (PS) operation and climate change on reservoir ice cover. To this end, three one‐dimensional and a two‐dimensional laterally averaged hydrodynamic model were set up. For the latter, the strength of the impacts with increasing distance from the dam was also investigated. Climate change effects were simulated by forcing the models with 150 years of synthetic meteorological time series created with a weather generator based on available air temperature scenarios for Switzerland. Future climate by the end of the 21^st century was projected to shorten the ice‐covered period by ~2 months and decrease ice thicknesses by ~13 cm. Under current climate conditions, the ice cover would already be affected by extended PS operation. For example, the average probability of ice coverage on a specific day was projected to decrease by ~13% for current climate and could further be reduced from ~45% to ~10% for future climate. Overall, the results of all models were consistent. Although the number of winters without ice cover was projected to increase for all one‐dimensional models, studying individual segments of the two‐dimensional model showed that the impact was pronounced for segments close to the PS intake/outlet. In summary, the reservoir's ice cover is expected to partially vanish with higher probability of open water conditions closer to the PS intake/outlet.     

Understanding the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated alpine catchment in the Himalayan region using the J2000 hydrological model

This paper provides the results of hydrological modelling in a mesoscale glaciated alpine catchment of the Himalayan region. In the context of global climate change, the hydrological regime of an alpine mountain is likely to be affected, which might produce serious implications for downstream water availability. The main objective of this study was to understand the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated catchment, the Dudh Kosi River basin, in Nepal, using the J2000 hydrological model and thereby understand how the rise in air temperature will affect the hydrological processes. The model is able to reproduce the overall hydrological dynamics quite well with an efficiency result of Nash–Sutcliffe (0.85), logarithm Nash–Sutcliffe (0.93) and coefficient of determination (0.85) for the study period. The average contribution from glacier areas to total streamflow is estimated to be 17%, and snowmelt (other than from glacier areas) accounts for another 17%. This indicates the significance of the snow and glacier runoff in the Himalayan region. The hypothetical rise in temperature scenarios at a rate of +2 and +4 °C indicated that the snowmelt process might be largely affected. An increase in snowmelt volume is noted during the premonsoon period, whereas the contribution during the monsoon season is significantly decreased. This occurs mainly because the rise in temperature will shift the snowline up to areas of higher altitude and thereby reduce the snow storage capacity of the basin. This indicates that the region is particularly vulnerable to global climate change and the associated risk of decreasing water availability to downstream areas. Under the assumed warming scenarios, it is likely that in the future, the river might shift from a ‘melt‐dominated river’ to a ‘rain‐dominated river’. The J2000 model should be considered a promising tool to better understand the hydrological dynamics in alpine mountain catchments of the Himalayan region. This understanding will be quite useful for further analysis of ‘what‐if scenarios’ in the context of global climate and land‐use changes and ultimately for sustainable Integrated Water Resources Management in the Himalayan region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of climate variability on water quality with best management practices in sub‐tropical climate of USA

Efficiency of non‐point source pollution control methods may be altered in future climate. This study investigated climate change impacts on sediment and nutrient transport, and efficiency of best management practices (BMPs), in the Upper Pearl River Watershed (UPRW) in Mississippi. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was applied to the UPRW using observed flow, sediment and nutrient data. Water quality samples were collected at three US geological survey gauging stations. The model was successfully calibrated and validated for daily time steps (Nash Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination – R² up to 0.7) using manual and automatic (sequential uncertainty fitting version 2) methods from February 2010 to May 2011. Future weather scenarios were simulated using the LARS‐WG model, a stochastic weather generator, with Community Climate System Model, global climate model, which was developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the USA. On the basis of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, climate change scenarios were simulated for the mid (2046–2065) and late (2080–2099) century. Effectiveness of four BMPs (Riparian buffer, stream fencing, sub‐surface manure applications and vegetative filter strips) on reducing sediment and nutrient were evaluated in current and future climate conditions. Results show that sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus loadings will be increased up to a maximum of 26.3%, 7.3% and 14.3%, respectively, in future climate conditions. Furthermore, the effectiveness of BMPs on sediment removal will be reduced in future climate conditions, and the efficiency of nitrogen removal will be increased, whereas phosphorus removal efficiency will remain unchanged. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of uncertainties in the hydrological response of a model‐based climate change impact assessment in a subcatchment of the Spree River,Germany

Climate change impact assessments form the basis for the development of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. For this purpose, ensembles consisting of stepwise coupled models are generally used [emission scenario → global circulation model → downscaling approach (DA) → bias correction → impact model (hydrological model)], in which every item is affected by considerable uncertainty. The aim of the current study is (1) to analyse the uncertainty related to the choice of the DA as well as the hydrological model and its parameterization and (2) to evaluate the vulnerability of the studied catchment, a subcatchment of the highly anthropogenically impacted Spree River catchment, to hydrological change. Four different DAs are used to drive four different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (Water Balance Simulation Model developed at ETH Zürich and HBV‐light). In total, 452 simulations are carried out. The results show that all simulations compute an increase in air temperature and potential evapotranspiration. For precipitation, runoff and actual evapotranspiration, opposing trends are computed depending on the DA used to drive the hydrological models. Overall, the largest source of uncertainty can be attributed to the choice of the DA, especially regarding whether it is statistical or dynamical. The choice of the hydrological model and its parameterization is of less importance when long‐term mean annual changes are compared. The large bandwidth at the end of the modelling chain may exacerbate the formulation of suitable climate change adaption strategies on the regional scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What about reservoirs? Questioning anthropogenic and climatic interferences on water availability

Water resources in semi-arid regions like the Mediterranean Basin are highly vulnerable because of the high variability of weather systems. Additionally, climate change is altering the timing and pattern of water availability in a region where growing populations are placing extra demands on water supplies. Importantly, how reservoirs and dams have an influence on the amount of water resources available is poorly quantified. Therefore, we examine the impact of reservoirs on water resources together with the impact of climate change in a semi-arid Mediterranean catchment. We simulated the Susurluk basin (23.779-km²) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We generate results for with (RSV) and without reservoirs (WRSV) scenarios. We run simulations for current and future conditions using dynamically downscaled outputs of the MPI-ESM-MR general circulation model under two greenhouse gas relative concentration pathways (RCPs) in order to reveal the coupled effect of reservoir and climate impacts. Water resources were then converted to their usages – blue water (water in aquifers and rivers), green water storage (water in the soil) and green water flow (water losses by evaporation and transpiration). The results demonstrate that all water resources except green water flow are projected to decrease under all RCPs compared to the reference period, both long-term and at seasonal scales. However, while water scarcity is expected in the future, reservoir storage is shown to be adequate to overcome this problem. Nevertheless, reservoirs reduce the availability of water, particularly in soil moisture stores, which increases the potential for drought by reducing streamflow. Furthermore, reservoirs cause water losses through evaporation from their open surfaces. We conclude that pressures to protect society from economic damage by building reservoirs have a strong impact on the fluxes of watersheds. This is additional to the effect of climate change on water resources.     

River flood seasonality in the Northeast United States: Characterization and trends

The New England and Mid‐Atlantic regions of the Northeast United States have experienced climate‐induced increases in both the magnitude and frequency of floods. However, a detailed understanding of flood seasonality across these regions, and how flood seasonality may have changed over the instrumental record, has not been established. The annual timing of river floods reflects the flood‐generating mechanisms operating in a basin, and many aquatic and riparian organisms are adapted to flood seasonality, as are human uses of river channels and flood plains. Changes in flood seasonality may indicate changes in flood‐generating mechanisms, and their interactions, with important implications for habitats, flood plain infrastructure, and human communities. I applied a probabilistic method for identifying flood seasons at a monthly resolution for 90 Northeast U.S. watersheds with natural, or near‐natural, flood‐generating conditions. Historical trends in flood seasonality were also investigated. Analyses were based on peaks‐over‐threshold flood records that have, on average, 85 years of data and three peaks per year—thus providing more information about flood seasonality than annual maximums. The results show rich detail about annual flood timing across the region with each site having a unique pattern of monthly flood occurrence. However, a much smaller number of dominant seasonal patterns emerged when contiguous flood‐rich months were classified into commonly recognized seasons (e.g., Mar–May, spring). The dominant seasonal patterns identified by manual classification were corroborated by unsupervised classification methods (i.e., cluster analyses). Trend analyses indicated that the annual timing of flood‐rich seasons has generally not shifted over the period of record, but 65 sites with data from 1941 to 2013 revealed increased numbers of June–October floods—a trend driving previously documented increases in Northeast U.S. flood counts per year. These months have been historically flood‐poor at the sites examined, so warm‐season flood potential has increased with possible implications for aquatic and riparian organisms.     

1993—2017年气候变化对西藏谷物单产的定量影响

气候变化对农业的影响是全球关注的热点问题之一,青藏高原对气候变化尤其敏感,但气候变化对青藏高原农业产量的定量影响缺乏系统研究。为定量评估气候变化对西藏谷物单产的影响,本文使用气象数据与年鉴统计数据,选取了固定效应模型、差分模型和线性去趋势模型3类统计模型,分析了1993—2017年间气候变化（最低气温、降水量、生长度日和太阳辐射）对西藏县（区）级、市级和自治区3个尺度的谷物单产的影响。结果表明：西藏整体对于温度（最低气温和生长度日）的敏感性大于降水量和太阳辐射。各项气候因子对西藏谷物单产的整体影响为正影响,但不同区域对气候因子的敏感程度和显著性不同。除了生长度日对于拉萨为负影响以外,最低气温、降水量和太阳辐射对于所有市均为正影响。气候趋势对于西藏整体谷物单产的影响为正影响,不同模型计算结果集中在1.5%~4.8%区间内。3类模型中固定效应模型稳定性最好,线性去趋势模型好于差分模型,差分模型在引入气候因子间的交互项后模型稳定性降低。本文有助于西藏实施更加有空间针对性的农业适应气候变化措施,以应对气候造成的青藏高原农业生态系统变化。     

中国南北过渡带范围的地理表达及定量探测

气候变化下中国南北过渡带的动态变化及地域范围探测是识别农业生产敏感区、研究农业适应行为的基础。前人基于“自上而下”或“自下而上”的方法,采用不同的划界指标对中国南北过渡带的范围进行了探索,但对气候变化下南北过渡带范围的地理表达及其地域范围的定量探测较少涉及。采用1951—2018年2400多个国家气象站点气温和降水的逐日观测数据,以800 mm等降水量线、1月0℃均温、日均温≥10℃积温、日均温≥10℃日数和干燥度指数0.5为划界指标,运用ArcGIS栅格计算和均值-标准差对中国南北过渡带进行地理表达。结果表明,中国的南北分界是一条宽窄不一的过渡带,各划界指标的等值线在气候变化下变动明显,各气象要素的大致变动范围西南段较东北段更为稳定,日均温≥10℃积温和干燥度指数的变化幅度大于800 mm等降水量线和1月0℃均温。确定的中国南北过渡带的极端最北界自西向东依次穿过礼县、耀县、韩城、安泽、涉县、静海县;极端最南界自西向东依次穿过北川、宁强、西乡、房县、淅川、罗山、商城、定远、临安县。该范围内提取的637个县域中,位于南北过渡带气候变化稳定区的县域256个,位于气候变化敏感区的县域187个。研究可为中国南北过渡带农业生产适应气候变化提供科学依据。     

1990-2020年间念青唐古拉山中段北坡边坝地区冰川变化及气候响应

念青唐古拉山作为青藏高原东南缘重要山古冰川分布区,受季风影响,各区域冰川变化特征差异明显。论文通过Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI资料、ASRTMGDEM与气象数据,采用比值—阈值法、目视解译和VOLTA模型,结合实地考察,对1990—2020年间念青唐古拉山中段北坡边坝地区现代冰川进退状况、面积变化、冰储量变化以及冰川变化对气候变化响应特征进行研究。结果表明：① 1990—2020年5条冰川(玉贡拉冰川、玛拉波冰川、祥格拉冰川、孔嘎冰川、贡日—庚东冰川)末端高程逐渐升高,面积和冰储量分别减少30.38 km²和4.64 km³,总体缩减并呈现加速趋势。② 冰川冰储量减少0.14~1.92 km³,总体变化率为0.40%·a^-1。2020年上述5条冰川储量占1990年冰川储量的比例分别为0.70、0.99、0.98、0.91和0.82,显示出冰川规模越大,在短时间尺度的变化量越小。③ 气象数据分析显示,1990—2020年研究区冰川变化受气温升高主导,平均气温变化率为0.51 ℃。水热组合呈现温度升高—降水减少,且在最后10 a日益显著,预测未来冰川变化仍受气温控制并呈加速退缩趋势。④ 区域对比研究表明,念青唐古拉山冰川面积变化总体呈退缩状态,但各区域冰川变化特征差异明显。同时,不同研究方法对同一冰川区冰储量模拟结果相差较大,相对误差范围为34.45%~115.49%,精确的冰储量可对比研究方法仍有待进一步研究。     

1984—2020年辽宁省极端气温时空变化及粮食产量响应研究

通过选取极端气温指数对1984—2020年辽宁省极端气温时空变化进行分析,结果表明：① 近37 a极端气温指数的时间变化具有一致性,表现为暖指数（年极端高温、暖昼日数、暖夜日数）上升和冷指数（年极端低温、冷昼日数、冷夜日数）下降。受城市化进程影响,突变主要集中在1995—2005年。② 极端气温指数具有空间差异性,具体表现在城镇化水平高的城市极端气温差值变化较小,沿海地区相对指数变化幅度相对较小。③ 结合辽宁省粮食与气象灾害数据,得出1984—2020年粮食实际产量与趋势产量呈波动上升变化。相对产量与气象产量波动趋势一致,近37 a气候丰年10个、气候歉年7个,其他为正常年份。气象产量受极端高温、极端低温的影响较大,风雹、冷冻成为影响粮食产量的关键气象灾害。