基于误差反馈控制的变系数城市扩张模型构建及应用

通过模拟结果与实际情况的误差分析,将研究区划分为4种像元类型,包括漏算误差像元（Omission Error, OE）、超算误差像元（Commission Error, CE）、正确模拟的城市像元（Urban Correct, UC）及正确模拟的非城市像元（Non-urban Correct, NUC）。利用线性规划方法,将误差反馈到城市扩张模型中,动态修正模型系数,构建基于误差反馈控制的变系数城市扩张空间布局模型反映城市扩张的内在特征,最后以北京市为例,模拟了其1997~2009年的城市扩张过程,通过与传统Logistic-CA模型的模拟结果对比,验证变系数模型的有效性与实用性。研究结果表明：传统Logistic-CA模型在2001年、2005年和2009年的模拟精度分别为73.842%、64.704 %和63.953%,而基于误差反馈控制的变系数城市扩张模型的模拟精度分别为75.624%、66.537%和69.142%,较Logistic-CA回归模型提高了1.782、1.833和5.189个百分点,取得了更好的模拟效果。     

海洋工程人因可靠性研究进展

海洋结构物在其生命周期的设计、建筑和工作等阶段中发生的灾害性事故（船舶和海洋平台的碰撞、搁浅、腐蚀病劳破坏、沉船、火灾、爆炸等）大多与人为错误和组织错误（ＨＯＥ有关,据统计,大约６０％～９０％的事故意 由ＨＯＥ引起,因此海洋工程中进行人因可靠性分析研究很有必要,在全面回顾近年来各国在这一领域的研究现状,分析和总结人因可靠性评估（ＨＲＡ）研究方法的基础上,重点介绍了失效模式及影响分析（ＦＭＥＡ）,事     

基于误差检验的稳定流抽水试验可靠性研究

水文地质参数取值的不确定性是影响地下水稳定流理论发展和技术应用的最大障碍,基于误差可靠性分析的评价体系的建立,则不仅大大地提高了水文地质参数的准确性,而且还规范了抽水试验的技术方法,进而使地下水稳定流理论得以完善.     

浅谈全站仪数字测图设站错误的可视化处理

测绘生产和教学中,时常出现测站、定向点坐标设置与实际位置不一致,出现地形图测绘错误。通过错误分析,应用平面坐标变换原理,基于AutoCAD图形平台进行直观、可视化的计算机处理,给出EXCEL处理代码和lisp程序,进行错误的批量处理。该方法将在应急工程控制测量后置的地形图测绘工作中得到广泛应用。     

应力降研究进展综述

本文介绍了国内外关于应力降研究及应用的一些进展。对应力降定义及计算方法进行简要介绍,对地震应力降整体特征、应力降与地震大小、应力降与构造环境、应力降与序列类型等之间的关系进行简要综述,重点讨论了应力降在震后趋势判定中的可能应用,并对应力降计算结果的不确定性进行了初步讨论。应力降表征地震错动导致的位错面上的应力变化,其定义为地震前后初始应力σ_0与终止应力σ_1之差。地震应力降数值大多为零点几兆帕至数十兆帕,以10MPa以下的居多。应力降与震级、震源深度、构造环境、震源机制、序列类型等之间的关系复杂,对此,也存在诸多不同的认识。消除震级影响之后,地震序列应力降随时间持续升高的现象,对后续强余震有一定的时间指示意义。值得注意的是,诸多因素均会影响应力降的计算结果,数值实验结果显示,拐角频率、零频极限的综合误差对应力降计算结果影响显著,二者不确定性造成的应力降计算误差几乎完全覆盖余震应力降随时间的变化。     

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of the b-value in the Hetao Seismic Belt

Focusing on the b-value as the research target and under the theoretical framework that the b-value is determined by stress state and medium properties, the variation characteristics of the b-value in the Hetao seismic belt are analyzed. Earthquakes with ML≥1. 5,which have occurred in the Hetao seismic belt since 1970 are selected to conduct the quantitative detection of the non-uniform temporal change of Mcusing the EMR method. Based on the actual situation of seismic activity,the lower limit magnitude is set as ML2. 0 to calculate the b-value. The temporal variation of the b-value is calculated and scanned using the least square method. The results show that there is a good corresponding relationship between the temporal variation of the b-value,strong earthquake activity,network distribution and aftershock deletion. We also calculate and scan the spatial variation of the b-value by using maximum likelihood. The results show that the spatial difference is possibly caused by stress state and crustal medium properties. The tectonic dependence of the b-value is obvious. In addition,the sufficient earthquakes samples in each magnitude interval are still a key step to improve the calculation accuracy of the b-value.     

基于误差分布估计的三峡水库入库洪水概率预报方法

准确、及时的入库洪水预报,对三峡水库综合效益的发挥和长江流域水旱灾害防御、水资源利用、流域综合管理等具有重要作用。基于预报误差的最优分布估计和分布函数动态参数假定,提出了一种三峡水库入库洪水概率预报方法,并进行了洪水概率预报业务试验。结果表明:本文所提方法科学可行,计算快捷,使用方便,便于在实时作业预报中应用推广;概率预报结果较确定性预报结果,在水量预报、预警效果等方面均有所改善,1～5 d预见期预报的确定性系数提高0.1%～3.4%,水量误差减少0.1%～4.8%,可为三峡水库实时调度提供更可靠的预报信息;所提出的三峡水库入库洪水概率预报业务化产品,可提供更多风险信息,为三峡水库的科学调度,尤其是洪水资源化利用提供更好的优化决策支撑。     

数值模式的预报策略和方法研究进展

数值预报经历了半个多世纪的发展,已成为当前主要的客观预报工具。在模式和资料状况给定的情况下,预报效果的改善很大程度上依赖于所采用的预报策略和方法。为此,全面回顾了国内外基于数值模式的预报策略和方法研究进展,认为采取统计—动力相结合、从历史资料中提炼信息的预报策略是提高数值预报水平的可行之路。最后在总结前人工作基础上,着重介绍了动力相似预报策略和方法的相关研究,特别是实际预报中的试验情况。     

天气雷达水平仪检测数据误差订正与数学处理方法初探

天气雷达天线座水平度的检测主要使用2种气泡式水平仪来获取数据。由于水平仪在天线座上的实际检测工作环境与水平仪原来的标准检定环境差别较大,所以直接获取的检测数据含有明显的误差成分,这在很大程度上影响到了对天线座水平度的准确检测。针对在水平仪检测数据订正与数学处理方法方面出现的问题,分别提出了对这2种气泡水平仪系统读数误差的确定方法和检测数据的数学处理方法。结果表明:对读数误差的确切分离与对检测数据进行恰当的数学处理,能够明显提高天气雷达天线座水平度检测数据的准确度和可信度。     

Modelling the spatial distribution of plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), sole (Solea solea) and thornback ray (Raja clavata) in UK waters for marine management and planning

Species distribution maps are needed for ecosystem-based marine management including the development of marine spatial plans. If such maps are based on predictive models then modelling procedures should aim to maximise validation success, and any uncertainty in the predictions needs to be made explicit. We developed a predictive modelling approach to produce robust maps of the distributions of selected marine species at a regional scale. We used 14 years of survey data to map the distributions of plaice, sole and thornback ray in three hydrographic regions comprising parts of the Irish Sea, Celtic Sea and the English Channel with the help of the hybrid technique regression kriging, which combines regression models with geostatistical tools. For each species–region combination we constructed logistic Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) based on presence–absence data using the environmental variables: depth, bottom temperature, bed shear stress and sediment type, as predictors. We selected GLMs using the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) estimated by cross-validation then conducted a geostatistical analysis of the residuals to incorporate spatial structure in the predictions. In general, we found that species occurrence was positively related to shallow areas, a bed shear stress of between 0 and 1.5 N/m², and the presence of sandy sediment. Predicted species occurrence probabilities were in good agreement with survey observations. This modelling framework selects environmental models based on predictive ability and considers the effect of spatial autocorrelation on predictions, together with the simultaneous presentation of observations, associated uncertainties, and predictions. The potential benefit of these distribution maps to marine management and planning is discussed.