短期集合降水概率预报试验

以MM5模式作为试验模式, 通过选取不同的物理过程参数化方案产生8个集合成员, 分别用平均法、相关法和Rank法对2001年11月至2002年5月期间的22个降水个例进行短期集合降水概率预报试验。试验结果显示对小雨—大暴雨6类降水的概率预报, Rank法的综合预报效果明显好于相关法和平均法, 相关法的综合预报效果与平均法基本相同; 无论从均方误差角度还是从命中率和假警报率的相对大小角度, 对小雨、中雨、大雨和暴雨各量级以上降水的概率预报, Rank法的平均预报效果是三种方法中最好的, 相关法的平均预报效果与平均法相同; Rank法好于平均法的平均幅度从均方误差角度较大, 从命中率和假警报率的相对大小角度则较小。平均而言, 三种方法对各量级以上降水的概率预报都是有技巧预报, 对量级小的降水的概率预报技巧高于对量级大的降水的概率预报技巧。     

Parameter identification of inelastic structures under dynamic loads

The generalized model of differential hysteresis contains 13 control parameters with which it can curve‐fit practically any hysteretic trace. Three identification algorithms are developed to estimate the control parameters of hysteresis for different classes of inelastic structures. These algorithms are based upon the simplex, extended Kalman filter, and generalized reduced gradient methods. Novel techniques such as global search and internal constraints are incorporated to facilitate convergence and stability. Effectiveness of the devised algorithms is demonstrated through simulations of two inelastic systems with both pinching and degradation characteristics in their hysteretic traces. Owing to very modest computing requirements, these identification algorithms may become acceptable as a design tool for mapping the hysteretic traces of inelastic structures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the oceanic impact of a data-assimilation method in a coupled ocean-land-atmosphere model

 Based on the Kalman filter theory, a new data-assimilation method has been used to improve the 3-D oceanic temperature field of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) coupled general circulation model. This method is applied to assimilate surface and subsurface temperature of in situ measurements from the Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic project (PIRATA). The assimilation of the PIRATA data produces an improved representation of the thermal state of the ocean and allows a better estimation of other oceanographic quantities, like meridional heat fluxes and zonal currents. The present paper focuses on the tropical Atlantic and, in particular, it contains new reconstructed temperature profiles. One-month forecast experiments during 1999 were performed and the impact of the assimilation is discussed. Received: 24 April 2001 / Accepted: 8 March 2002     

Economic Filters Applied to Quantitative Mineral Resource Simulations

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a technique that allows mineral resource experts to apply economic filters to estimates of undiscovered mineral resources. This technique builds on previous work that developed quantitative methods for mineral resource assessments. A Monte-Carlo calculation uses mineral deposit models to estimate commodity grades and tonnages of undiscovered deposits. The results then are analyzed using simple estimates of capital expenditures and daily operating costs for a mine and associated mill. The daily operating costs and the value of the ore are used to calculate the net present value of the deposit, which is compared to the capital expenditures to determine whether the deposit is economic. Repetition of these calculations for many deposits produces a table that can be interpreted in terms of the probability of there being deposits that have anet present value exceeding some specified amount. Sample calculations indicate that applying economic filters to simulated mineral resources might change the perception of the results compared to presenting the calculations in terms of the expected mean gross-in-place value of the minerals.     

面波群速度频散计算中滤波的数值实验研究

面波群速度计算中容易出现长周期部分时间域分辨率低的问题，因此，如何提高时间域的分辨率很重要。本文将引入等误差滤波的方法就改进群速度计算中滤波效果进行数值试验。结果表明，采用等误差滤波能明显提高群速度长周期部分的分辨率，对准确地测定长周期部分的群速度有重要意义。     

Continuous wavelet-like filter for a spherical surface and its application to localized admittance function on Mars

We have developed a 2D isotropic continuous wavelet-like transform for a spherical surface. The transform is simply defined as the surface convolution between the original field and a kernel, based on the zeroth-order Bessel function with a spherical correction. This spherical correction violates the geometric similarity for the various scales of the kernels, which becomes more apparent at longer wavelengths. We found numerically that this transform is practically equivalent to a Gaussian bandpass filter in the spherical harmonic domain. We have applied this wavelet-like transform on the recently acquired Martian gravity and topography fields. Using a ratio constructed locally from these two fields, we have constructed a map describing the lateral variations of the localized admittance function on Mars.     

滞后平均法（LAF）在热带气旋路径集合预报中的应用

本文用-正压模式，采用滞后平均法(LAF)对2000年热带气旋进行路径集合预报试验，并与基于热带气旋初始结构扰动的集合预报方法进行了比较分析，结果表明LAF方法对热带气旋路径预报具有较好的改进作用。但LAF的集合预报效果受模式本身误差的影响，在完美模式的假设下，LAF集合预报相对于控制试验的技巧水平20～40％。     

华南中尺度暴雨数值预报的不确定性与集合预报试验

利用非静力MM5模式,分析了不同积云对流参数化方案对华南暖区暴雨数值预报的不确定性影响,进行了中尺度暴雨模式扰动集合预报试验。不同对流参数化方案的对流凝结加热引起不同的局地温度扰动,通过大气内部的热力动力过程,导致垂直速度的差异,进而影响网格尺度和次网格尺度降水时间、地点和强度。后续降水再通过凝结潜热释放形成新的扰动源。不同积云对流参数化方案还可引起扰动源能量传播方式不同,最终使模拟大气的动力和热力结构有差异。针对物理过程的不确定性,使用两种模式扰动方法构造集合预报扰动模式,第一种方法是随机组合不同积云对流参数化方案和边界层方案,第二种方法是扰动Grell积云对流参数化方案中主要参数振幅。集合预报结果表明,第一种方法的集合预报效果优于第二种方法,仅扰动参数振幅值似乎还不足以反映华南暴雨预报的不确定性。单一的确定性预报在暴雨落区和强度方面的可信度不稳定,集合产品能给华南暴雨过程提供更有用价值的指导预报,具有较高的应用价值。     

数字地震数据的处理研究—真实地面运动的复原

讨论了在频域中真实地面运动的复原问题，借助于一个稳定的六阶带通滤波器可使地震仪反演系统趋于稳定，最后由关分方程递归求出真实地动位移，结果表明，对同一个地震，不同的仪器其原始响应不同，但由其复原的真实地面运动结果却有相当好的一致性。这证明了所采用的复原方法的可用性。