Impact of land-cover and climate changes on runoff of the source regions of the Yellow River

After dividing the source regions of the Yellow River into 38 sub-basins, the paper made use of the SWAT model to simulate streamflow with validation and calibration of the observed yearly and monthly runoff data from the Tangnag hydrological station, and simulation results are satisfactory. Five land-cover scenario models and 24 sets of temperature and precipitation combinations were established to simulate annual runoff and runoff depth under different scenarios. The simulation shows that with the increasing of vegetation coverage annual runoff increases and evapotranspiration decreases in the basin. When temperature decreases by 2oC and precipitation increases by 20%, catchment runoff will increase by 39.69%, which is the largest situation among all scenarios.     

2000年以来中国大陆5级以上地震近源区的相继发震特征与预测

通过对中国大陆除新疆和东北深震区以外的主要地区2000年以来5级以上地震活动特征的研究发现,5级以上地震近源区的相继发震是某些区域地震活动的重要特征。依据这一特征可以对今后研究区内5级以上地震的后续地震作中期预测。     

REE and (э)Nd of clay fractions in sediments from the eastern Pacific Ocean: Evidence for clay sources

Clay fractions in the non-calcareous surface sediments from the eastern Pacific were analyzed for clay minerals, REE and 143Nd/144Nd. Montmorillonite/illite ratio (M/I ratio), total REE contents ((REE), LREE/HREE ratio and cerium anomaly (бCe) may effectively indicate the genesis of clay minerals. Clay fractions with M/I ratio >1, бCe (0.85, (REE (400 μg/g, LREE/HREE ratio (4, and REE patterns similar to those of pelagic sediments are terrigenous and autogenetic mixed clay fractions and contain more autogenetic montmorillonite. Clay fractions with M/I ratio <1, бCe=0.86 to 1.5, ΣREE=200 to 350 μg/g, LREE/HREE ratio (6 and REE distribution patterns similar to that of China loess are identified as terrigenous clay fraction. The 143Nd/144Nd ratios or (э)Nd values of clay fractions inherit the features of terrigenous sources of clay minerals. Clay fractions are divided into 4 types according to (э)Nd values. Terrigenous clay minerals of type I with the (э)Nd values of -8 to -6 originate mainly from North American fluvial deposits. Those of type II with the (э)Nd values of -9 to -7 are mainly from the East Asia and North American fluvial deposits. Those of type III with (э)Nd values of -6 to -3 could come from the central and eastern Pacific volcanic islands. Those of type IV with (э)Nd values of -13 to -12 may be from East Asia eolian. The terrigenous and autogenetic mixed clay fractions show patchy distributions, indicating that there are volcanic or hot-spot activities in the eastern Pacific plate, while the terrigenous clay fractions cover a large part of the study area, proving that the terrigenous clay minerals are dominant in the eastern Pacific.     

Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

Application of Characteristics of Seismogenic Structures in the Determination of Parameter of Potential Seismic Source Areas

INTRODUCTIONThe method of probabilistic seismic risk analysis was proposed by Cornell in1968(Cornell,1968).After more than30years development,it has become the main method for seismic riskassessment of engineering sites and seismic zonation,and has been u…     

Characteristics of Energy Accumulation and Release of Seismogenic Tectonics and Seismic Risk Analysis in Some Areas in the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang1

INTRODUCTIONHowtocombinethestudyofseismogenictectonicswithearthquakepredictionisanurgentscientificdifficulty .Thereexistbiggapsbetweenstudymethodsandcurrentknowledgeonseismogenitectonics ,earthquakeprediction ,seismogenesisandthephysicsofearthquakeoccurre…