Assessing the EU ETS with a bottom-up,multi-sector model

The European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is the central pillar of the EU response against climate change. This trading mechanism is considered, from the theoretical point of view, as the most cost-effective method to reduce GHG. However, previous studies show that the agents who participate in these markets may behave in a way that may lead to inefficient CO₂ prices, creating doubts about the static and dynamic efficiency of the system. This article analyses these possible anomalies by first trying to model the ETS in a more realistic way, addressing some of the limitations of previous models, and second, by comparing the results with real market transactions. For this, a bottom-up, multi-sector model has been built, which represents the EU ETS in an integrated, cross-sectoral way, paying particular attention to the interactions among the most emissions intensive industries. The results show the benefits of this modelling approach and how it better reflects real market conditions. Some preliminary conclusions regarding the behaviour of the agents in the ETS market are also presented.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Low allowance prices in the EU ETS have put into question the dynamic efficiency of the EU ETS system, prompting various ideas for structural reform. However, determining the right reform also requires estimating correctly how agents will respond to it. This article proposes a tool to realistically simulate the EU ETS under the assumption of rational agents, and compare it to real market outcomes, in order to understand better the behaviour of agents in this carbon market, and therefore how to design better policies.     

Research progress and prospects of digital restructuring of global-local interactions北大核心CSCD

Global-local interaction is an important research topic in economic geography. In recent years, the rapid development of digitalization in various countries and regions has profoundly affected the global production and trade networks. However, there is a lack of systematic theoretical discussion on digitalization and global-local interaction studies. The objective of this study is to conceptually rethink the role of digitalization in reshaping global-local interactions from a dynamic and relational perspective. To do this, the study first systematically reviewed the digital turn in economic geography and discussed the rethinking of digitalization. It is found that the understanding of digitalization is gradually moving beyond the limits of isolated, static, and passive technocentric approaches and towards a more dynamic, relational, and open perspective. Second, the study combined the "digital turn" with the "relational turn" in relational economic geography, which constructs theoretical bridges between digitalization and global-local studies. Third, this study provided a basic understanding for sorting out the evolution of the research frameworks, that is, from the global value chain (GVC) to the global production network (GPN) and then to the digital ecosystem (DE). We argued that digitalization has been deeply involved in shaping the global economic landscape, restructuring global-local production relations, and reconstructing regional development. Based on this recognition, we discussed the primary performance of digitalization on the restructuring of global-local interaction from three aspects: enterprise relationship, spatial effect and interaction mechanism. Finally, grounded in the practice of China's urban and regional digital economy development, the possible theoretical innovations and prospects for future research on digitalization and global-local interaction in the Chinese context were proposed. The study pointed out that we can integrate the regional practices of China's digital development with more in-depth research from the perspectives of the platform ecosystems, spatial effects, location analysis, local development models, and so on in future research. © 2023, Editorial office of PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY. All rights reserved.     

IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022?

Long-term global emission scenarios enable the analysis of future climate change, impacts, and response strategies by providing insight into possible future developments and linking these different climate research elements. Such scenarios play a crucial role in the climate change literature informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Reports (ARs) and support policymakers. This article reviews the evolution of emission scenarios, since 1990, by focusing on scenario critiques and responses as published in the literature. We focus on the issues raised in the critiques and the possible impact on scenario development. The critique (280) focuses on four areas: 1) key scenario assumptions (40%), 2) the emissions range covered by the scenarios and missing scenarios (25%), 3) methodological issues (24%), and 4) the policy relevance and handling of uncertainty (11%). Scenario critiques have become increasingly influential since 2000. Some areas of critique have decreased or become less prominent (probability, development process, convergence assumptions, and economic metrics). Other areas have become more dominant over time (e.g., policy relevance & implications of scenarios, transparency, Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) assumptions, missing scenarios). Several changes have been made in developing scenarios and their content that respond to the critique.