Quantifying the response of forest carbon balance to future climate change in Northeastern China: Model validation and prediction

In this study, we report on the validation of process-based forest growth and carbon and nitrogen model of TRIPLEX against observed data, and the use of the model to investigate the potential impacts and interaction of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO₂ on forest net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon budgets in northeast of China. The model validation results show that the simulated tree total volume, NPP, total biomass and soil carbon are consistent with observed data across the Northeast of China, demonstrating that the improved TRIPLEX model is able to simulate forest growth and carbon dynamics of the boreal and temperate forest ecosystems at regional scale. The climate change would increase forest NPP and biomass carbon but decrease overall soil carbon under all three climate change scenarios. The combined effects of climate change and CO₂ fertilization on the increase of NPP were estimated to be 10–12% for 2030s and 28–37% in 2090s. The simulated effects of CO₂ fertilization significantly offset the soil carbon loss due to climate change alone. Overall, future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO₂ would have a significant impact on the forest ecosystems of Northeastern China.     

中国21世纪气候变化的情景模拟分析

利用HadCM2和ECHAM4气候模式比较分析了温室气体排放综合效果相当于CO2浓度逐年递增1％情景下中国区域21世纪地面气温和降水量的变化趋势。结果表明：在温室气体渐进递增情景下，至21世纪末期，相对于1961-1990年的气候基准值，全国地面平均气温增幅可达5—6℃。与地面气温的变化相比，降水量的波动幅度较大，但全国范围内降水量变化的总趋势也是增加的。中国区域地面气温和降水量变化的地理分布显示：降水量的增加主要集中在南方区域，HadCM2预测21世纪末期降水增加可达0．9mm／d，ECHAM4预测可达0．6mm／d；ECHAM4模式模拟的气温增幅比HadCM2高，尤其是在冬季及中国北方和青藏高原地区，而HadCM2模式模拟的降水量的增加较大，但两个气候模式模拟的地面气温和降水量变化的总趋势大体一致。     

Mercury content of the Springfield coal, Indiana and Kentucky

With pending regulation of mercury emissions in United States power plants, its control at every step of the combustion process is important. An understanding of the amount of mercury in coal at the mine is the first step in this process. The Springfield coal (Middle Pennsylvanian) is one of the most important coal resources in the Illinois Basin. In Indiana and western Kentucky, Hg contents range from 0.02 to 0.55 ppm. The variation within small areas is comparable to the variation on a basin basis. Considerable variation also exists within the coal column, ranging from 0.04 to 0.224 ppm at one Kentucky site. Larger variations likely exist, since that site does not represent the highest whole-seam Hg nor was the collection of samples done with optimization of trace element variations in mind. Estimates of Hg capture by currently installed pollution control equipment range from 9–53% capture by cold-side electrostatic precipitators (ESP) and 47–81% Hg capture for ESP + flue-gas desulfurization (FGD). The high Cl content of many Illinois basin coals and the installation of Selective Catalytic Reduction of NO_x enhances the oxidation of Hg species, improving the ability of ESPs and FGDs to capture Hg.     

Mesquite (Prosopis juliflora (Sw.) DC.), huisache (Acacia farnesiana (L.) Willd.) and catclaw (Mimosa biuncifera Benth.) and their effect on dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in soils of the semi-arid highlands of Durango Mexico

In the northern semiarid and arid part of Mexico, mesquite (Prosopis juliflora (SW.) DC.), huisache (Acacia farnesiana (L.) Willd.) and catclaw (Mimosa biuncifera Benth.), N₂-fixing trees or shrubs, dominate the landscape. It is unknown, however, how much the leaves of those shrubs contribute to dynamics of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in soil. We investigated this by adding leaves of each species to soil sampled under the canopy of mesquite, huisache, and catclaw and outside their canopy while monitoring production of carbon dioxide (CO₂), and dynamics of inorganic N (ammonium (NH₄⁺) and nitrate (NO₃⁻)) in an aerobic incubation. The (hemi)cellulose and N content of the catclaw leaves was lower and the lignin and polyphenol content was larger than in the mesquite and huisache leaves. If we considered no priming effect, then 41% of the C added with catclaw leaves, 47% with huisache leaves and 49% with mesquite leaves mineralized within 42 days. The addition of the leaves had little or no effect on N mineralized, and only 6% of organic N of the mesquite leaves was mineralized. It was found that catclaw, huisache and mesquite have a positive effect on the arid and semi-arid ecosystems as they increased soil organic matter and soil N content.     

Short-term measures for the control of ozone peaks: expertise from CTM simulations

In Europe, in case of the observation or the forecast of a photochemical event, punctual and local reductions in anthropogenic emissions can be triggered at the regional scale. Although the necessity for the establishment of such measures appears to be justified by bad air quality records over large European cities, individual short-term action plans (STAPs) have been blindly elaborated by regional authorities. Moreover, as they impose industrial and road traffic emission restrictions, these measures have an elevated economical cost. It is consequently crucial to determine their efficiency and potential for ozone peak reduction. The study presented in this paper aims to draw up an expertise on standard European STAPs, through the example of a French Mediterranean city. The objective is to determine and investigate the impact of current STAPs on ozone peak formation and to test ways to optimise their efficiency. In this frame, a set of emission scenarios has been elaborated and tested with the chemistry-transport model CHIMERE on the Berre–Marseille area. Simulations have shown that the tested action plans are not sufficient to eradicate severe ozone peaks and that more drastic restrictions on emissions are required to significantly affect ozone plumes. However, results also showed that the potential for ozone reduction remains small, with a maximum impact of only 5 ppbv for feasible STAPs. Finally, a temporal analysis of the ozone-emission relationship was engaged in order to optimise their application.     

Effects of Release Conditions Uncertainty on Avalanche Hazard Mapping

Dynamical models for calculating snow avalanche motion have gained growingimportance in recent years for avalanche hazard assessment. Nevertheless, inherentuncertainties in their input-data specification, although well acknowledged, areusually not explicitly incorporated into the analysis and considered in the mappingresults. In particular, the estimate of avalanche release conditions is affected bystrong uncertainties when associated to a return period. These sources of error arenormally addressed through sensitivity analysis or conservative parameters estimate.However, each of these approaches has limitations in assessing the statistical implications of uncertainties.In the present paper the problem of release scenarios randomness is looked at following a Monte Carlo procedure. This statistical sampling-analysis method allows the evaluation of the probability distributions of relevant variables for avalanche hazard assessment – such as runout distance and impact pressure – once the release variables – essentially releasedepth and release length – are expressed in terms of probability distributions, accounting explicitly for inherent uncertainties in their definition. Both the theoretical framework of this procedure and its application to a real study case are presented. As initial step of this research in the present work the attention is mainly focused on flowing avalanches descending on open slopes. Therefore, the one-dimensional version of VARA dynamic models is usedfor avalanche simulations.     

Climate Change Projections Based on GCM-Simulated Daily Data

Three-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs) are 'state-of-the-art' tools for projecting possible changes in climate. Scenarios constructed for the Czech Republic are based on daily outputs of the ECHAM-GCM in the central European region. Essential findings, derived from validating, procedures are summarized and changes in variables between the control and perturbed experiments are examined. The resulting findings have been used in selecting the most proper methods of generating climate change projections for assessing possible hydrological and agricultural impacts of climate change in selected exposure units. The following weather variables have been studied: Daily extreme temperatures, daily mean temperature, daily sum of global solar radiation, and daily precipitation amounts. Due to some discrepancies revealed, the temperature series for changed climate conditions (2×CO ₂ ) have been created with the help of temperature differences between the control and perturbed runs, and the precipitation series have been derived from an incremental scenario based on an intercomparison of the GCMs' precipitation performance in the region. Solar radiation simulated by the ECHAM was not available and, therefore, it was generated using regression techniques relating monthly means of daily extreme temperatures and global radiation sums. The scenarios published in the paper consist of monthly means of all temperatures, their standard deviations, and monthly means of solar radiation and precipitation amounts. Daily weather series, the necessary input to impact models, are created (i) by the additive or multiplicative modification of observed weather daily series or (ii) by generating synthetic time series with the help of a weather generator whose parameters have been modified in accord with the suggested climate change scenarios.     

Late-Variscan fluid migration at the Variscan thrust front of Eastern Belgium: numerical modelling of the palaeothermal and fluid flow field

Modelling of the palaeothermal field at the Variscan thrust front in eastern Belgium indicates significant temperature modifications by late-Variscan palaeofluids migrating from internal to peripheral parts of the orogen. A detailed set of calibration data (chlorite geothermometry, microthermometry, organic rank) gives evidence of temporary palaeotemperature variations at the Variscan thrust front obviously connected to the migration of hot, low saline palaeofluids. These thermal events likely enhanced organic maturation (vitrinite reflectance, conodont alteration) of Devonian and Carboniferous sediments, which accumulated long before the Variscan orogeny occurred. Numerical simulation (2D Finite Element method) of the palaeothermal field includes coupled heat transport by thermal conduction and fluid flow. Palaeothermal scenarios yield successive palaeotemperatures (200–300°C), which are indicated by the control data, due to relatively short-term fluid ascent along the detachment and the imbricate thrust front. The simulated flow velocities are up to tens of metre per year lasting several thousand years (non-steady-state solution). In the scenarios modelled, these thermal events occur in a realm of enhanced bulk temperatures due to elevated basal heat flow densities (90 mW m⁻²) and an additional burial depth of some kilometres. The simulated temperature enhancement due to fluids ascending at the Variscan thrust front is several tens degrees. The scenarios demonstrate long-distance fluid migration during or after deformation of the Palaeozoic basin and its effect on the palaeothermal field.     

青藏高原维管植物物种丰富度分布的情景模拟

如何充分利用离散的观测数据,通过对维管植物物种分布丰富度及其与生境因子之间的相互作用和影响机理的定量分析,实现维管植物物种丰富度的空间分布及其情景模拟,是目前生物多样性研究前沿和核心内容之一。针对这一问题,在实现青藏高原37个国家自然保护区的维管植物物种数量收集和边界数据矢量化的基础上,分别进行维管植物物种数量与土地覆盖类型、环境因子和景观生态指数等三大类生境因子之间的相关关系的定量计算和对比分析,筛选和确定最佳相关分析方程,进而构建青藏高原维管植物物种丰富度的空间模拟分析模型。该模型中,维管植物物种丰富度与生境因子之间的复相关系数为0.94,模型验证结果表明,青藏高原的维管植物物种的平均丰富度为496.79种/100 km²,其空间分布格局整体上呈东南向西北逐渐减少趋势;另外,除柴达木盆地荒漠区域以外,维管植物物种的空间分布随海拔的升高而减少。基于CMIP5 RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5三种气候情景模拟获得的青藏高原维管植物物种丰富度未来情景结果显示,在T0-T4（2010-2100）时段内,青藏高原维管植物物种丰富度整体将呈减少趋势。RCP 8.5情景下青藏高原维管植物物种丰富度的变化幅度最大,而RCP 2.6情景下的维管植物物种丰富度的变化幅度最小。研究表明,本文构建的模型能够对青藏高原维管植物物种丰富度的空间分布格局及其未来情景进行模拟分析,模拟结果可为青藏高原生物多样性及其对气候变化响应的综合评估和情景模拟提供方法和技术支持。     

What if negative emission technologies fail at scale? Implications of the Paris Agreement for big emitting nations

A cumulative emissions approach is increasingly used to inform mitigation policy. However, there are different interpretations of what ‘2°C’ implies. Here it is argued that cost-optimization models, commonly used to inform policy, typically underplay the urgency of 2°C mitigation. The alignment within many scenarios of optimistic assumptions on negative emissions technologies (NETs), with implausibly early peak emission dates and incremental short-term mitigation, delivers outcomes commensurate with 2°C commitments. In contrast, considering equity and socio-technical barriers to change, suggests a more challenging short-term agenda. To understand these different interpretations, short-term CO₂ trends of the largest CO₂ emitters, are assessed in relation to a constrained CO₂ budget, coupled with a ‘what if’ assumption that negative emissions technologies fail at scale. The outcomes raise profound questions around high-level framings of mitigation policy. The article concludes that applying even weak equity criteria, challenges the feasibility of maintaining a 50% chance of avoiding 2°C without urgent mitigation efforts in the short-term. This highlights a need for greater engagement with: (1) the equity dimension of the Paris Agreement, (2) the sensitivity of constrained carbon budgets to short-term trends and (3) the climate risks for society posed by an almost ubiquitous inclusion of NETs within 2°C scenarios.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Since the Paris meeting, there is increased awareness that most policy ‘solutions’ commensurate with 2°C include widespread deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). Yet much less is understood about that option’s feasibility, compared with near-term efforts to curb energy demand. Moreover, the many different ways in which key information is synthesized for policy makers, clouds the ability of policy makers to make informed decisions. This article presents an alternative approach to consider what the Paris Agreement implies, if NETs are unable to deliver more carbon sinks than sources. It illustrates the scale of the climate challenge for policy makers, particularly if the Agreement’s aim to address ‘equity’ is accounted for. Here it is argued that much more attention needs to be paid to what CO₂ reductions can be achieved in the short-term, rather than taking a risk that could render the Paris Agreement’s policy goals unachievable.