历史时期中国重大自然灾害时空分异特征(英文)

Based on historical documents and records this paper analyzes the characteristics of frequency and distribution of major disasters that took place in the history of China. The findings show that occurrences of different types of disasters varied and spatial pattern at provincial level are significantly different as well. The results also indicate that there is a strong relationship between type of disasters and spatial distribution and that the spatial pattern of losses was not the same as that of the frequency. The reasons are: (1) the hazard-formative environments which, to a large extent, determine the spatial pattern of the disasters are significantly different; (2) the losses caused by natural disasters were closely related to the concentration of economy and population. Number of deaths was usually large in areas where agriculture, culture and business were relatively developed. The spatial pattern of disaster losses is an evitable result of uneven economic development in the history of China.     

三眼峪特大泥石流堆积特征

通过野外勘查与试验,认为三眼峪泥石流沟是一个高频泥石流沟,历史上发生多次重大泥石流灾害事件,多期泥石流堆积物在沟道及沟口上下超覆叠置。结合泥石流发生前后遥感影像对比,采用ArcGIS平台进行分析,“8．8”特大泥石流一次最大冲出固体物质总量达152．18×10^4m^3,所到之处房毁江堵,并形成长约1．9km的狭长堆积,堆积量110．58×10^4m^3,最大堆积厚度达10．8m。因泥石流堆积特征是泥石流发生、发展、活动过程的客观记录,分析了三眼峪早期和“8．8”泥石流在不同部位的堆积特征和破坏程度,为泥石流综合整治和灾后重建规划提供参考。     

树立风险意识,确保地勘单位经济稳定和发展

随着事转企改革步伐的加快,地勘单位正在积极开辟社会地质市场,发展多种经营。参与市场竞争,就会遇到各种风险,为确保地勘单位经济稳定发展,就要建立有效的风险防范机制。     

敞开酸溶-电感耦合等离子体光谱法测定钨矿石和钼矿石中微量元素

钨矿石和钼矿石具有丰富的共生或伴生元素,检测共生或伴生元素的含量有利于矿产资源的综合利用.在国家标准方法中钨矿石和钼矿石的共生或伴生元素含量是按元素分别检测,效率很低.本文在敞开体系中用盐酸+硝酸+氢氟酸+高氯酸消解样品,以7％盐酸溶解盐类,电感耦合等离子体发射光谱同时测定钨矿石和钼矿石中铋、钴、铜、锂、镍、磷、铅、锶、钒、锌等10种微量元素.选定了各元素的分析谱线和光谱级次,采用离峰背景校正法消除背景干扰,干扰元素校正系数法消除元素间的谱线重叠干扰.方法检出限为1.43 ～ 18.8 μg/g,加标回收率为90％ ～ 110％.经钨矿石和钼矿石标准物质分析验证,测定结果与标准值基本吻合,方法精密度(RSD,n=10)小于8％.该方法克服了碱熔引入大量碱金属元素以及可能引入杂质的缺陷,又不用处理钨酸和钼酸沉淀,能快速测定钨矿石和钼矿石中微量共生或伴生元素.     

Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Tulbagh,South Africa: Part I – Assessment of Seismic Hazard

In this part of our study the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Tulbagh was performed. The applied procedure is parametric and consists essentially of two steps. The first step is applicable to the area in the vicinity of Tulbagh and requires an estimation of the area-specific parameters, which, in this case, is the mean seismic activity rate, , the Gutenberg-Richter parameter, b, and the maximum regional magnitude, m_max. The second step is applicable to the Tulbagh site, and consists of parameters of distribution of amplitude of the selected ground motion parameter. The current application of the procedure provides an assessment of the PSHA in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA). The procedure permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The historical part of the catalogue only contains the strongest events, whereas the complete part can be divided into several subcatalogues, each assumed complete above a specified threshold of magnitude. In the analysis, the uncertainty in the determination of the earthquake was taken into account by incorporation of the concept of `apparent magnitude'. The PSHA technique has been developed specifically for the estimation of seismic hazard at individual sites without the subjective judgement involved in the definition of seismic source zones, when the specific active faults have not been mapped or identified, and where the causes of seismicity are not well understood. The results of the hazard assessment are expressed as probabilities that specified values of PGA will be exceeded during the chosen time intervals, and similarly for the spectral accelerations. A worst case scenario sketches the possibility of a maximum PGA of 0.30g. The results of the hazard assessment can be used as input to a seismic risk assessment.     

Likely effects of climate change on groundwater availability in a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain

Groundwater resources are typically the main fresh water source in arid and semi‐arid regions. Natural recharge of aquifers is mainly based on precipitation; however, only heavy precipitation events (HPEs) are expected to produce appreciable aquifer recharge in these environments. In this work, we used daily precipitation and monthly water level time series from different locations over a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain to identify the critical threshold value to define HPEs that lead to appreciable aquifer recharge in this region. Wavelet and trend analyses were used to study the changes in the temporal distribution of the chosen HPEs (≥20 mm day^?1) over the observed period 1953–2012 and its projected evolution by using 18 downscaled climate projections over the projected period 2040–2099. The used precipitation time series were grouped in 10 clusters according to similarities between them assessed by using Pearson correlations. Results showed that the critical HPE threshold for the study area is 20 mm day^?1. Wavelet analysis showed that observed significant seasonal and annual peaks in global wavelet spectrum in the first sub‐period (1953–1982) are no longer significant in the second sub‐period (1983–2012) in the major part of the ten clusters. This change is because of the reduction of the mean HPEs number, which showed a negative trend over the observed period in nine clusters and was significant in five of them. However, the mean size of HPEs showed a positive trend in six clusters. A similar tendency of change is expected over the projected period. The expected reduction of the mean HPEs number is two times higher under the high climate scenario (RCP8.5) than under the moderate scenario (RCP4.5). The mean size of these events is expected to increase under the two scenarios. The groundwater availability will be affected by the reduction of HPE number which will increase the length of no aquifer recharge periods (NARP) accentuating the groundwater drought in the region. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determination of the Jenkinson and Collison’s weather types for the western Mediterranean basin over the 1948-2009 period. Temporal analysis

We determined the weather type, according to the Jenkinson and Collison procedure, of the 22 646 days in the 1948-2009 period for the western Mediterranean basin. The analysis is based upon the surface pressure values of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, for a grid of nine points with extreme vertices at 45º N, 5º W and 35º N, 15º E, which provides a broad synoptic catalogue for this region. We analyzed the trends of the types and their different groupings during the same period. The most frequent type is U (undetermined), with an annual average of approximately 100 days (99.4, 27.2%), followed by type A (anticyclone), with 75.5 days/ year (20.7%), and C (depression), with 67.8 days/year (18.6%). The high frequency of type U is due to the habitual pressure of baric fields with a low gradient over Mediterranean waters in the warm half of the year. According to their directions, the types from the west are the most frequent and those from the south, the least. The monthly regime of the most frequent types and groupings is quite regular; type C groups, as well as advective and cyclonic curvature groups, present summertime minima and maxima in the cold half of the year, whereas the opposite occurs with types U and A. The main statistically significant annual trends in the 1948-2009 period involve a decrease in type A (–4.19 days/decade, that is, –29.0%) and an increase in type U, the cyclonic types and those presenting an easterly component. On comparing the 31-yr sub-periods 1948-1978 and 1979-2009, the tendencies of A and U were confirmed, and increases can generally be seen in the types presenting an easterly component and a decrease in those with a westerly component. The variation in type A ranged from 2490 days in the first sub-period to 2192 in the second one (p = 0.000), mainly concentrated in summer and autumn. This evident reduction of type A coincides, paradoxically, with an increase in the sea surface pressure variable (+0.31 hPa/decade) throughout the 62 years of analysis. The negative trend found in type A differs from the results of some studies. The different analysis periods, the different scales or areas of study and the variety of methods used to determine the weather types can account for the fact that these results are discordant. Moreover, warming over the last few decades in the waters of the western Mediterranean basin, as well as the clearly cyclogenetic character of the gulfs of Lion and Genoa, might account for the decrease in type A and the increase in the cyclonic curvature types.     

The global impacts of US climate policy: a model simulation using GCAM-TU and MAGICC

To assess the potential impacts of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, this study applied GCAM-TU (an updated version of the Global Change Assessment Model) to simulate global and regional emission pathways of energy-related CO₂, which show that US emissions in 2100 would reduce to ?2.4?Gt, ?0.7?Gt and ?0.2?Gt under scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP3.7 and RCP4.5, respectively. Two unfavourable policy scenarios were designed, assuming a temporary delay and a complete stop for US mitigation actions after 2015. Simulations by the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) indicate that the temperature increase by 2100 would rise by 0.081°C–0.161°C compared to the three original RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) if US emissions were kept at their 2015 levels until 2100. The probability of staying below 2°C would decrease by 6–9% even if the US resumes mitigation efforts for achieving its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target after 2025. It is estimated by GCAM-TU that, without US participation, increased reduction efforts are required for the rest of the world, including developing countries, in order to achieve the 2°C goal, resulting in 18% higher global cumulative mitigation costs from 2015 to 2100.

Key policy insights

• President Trump’s climate policies, including planned withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, cast a shadow on international climate actions, and would lower the likelihood of achieving the 2°C target.

• To meet the 2°C target without the US means increased reduction efforts and mitigation costs for the rest of the world, and considerable economic burdens for major developing areas.

• Active state-, city- and enterprise-level powers should be supported to keep the emission reduction gap from further widening even with reduced mitigation efforts from the US federal government.

     

国际及中国地球科学发展态势文献计量分析

以SCI、ESI（基本科学指标数据库）、GEOREF等数据库为统计分析源,对1993—2003年国际及中国地球科学的发展现状和发展态势从文献计量学的角度进行统计分析,分析了国际地球科学论文产出的主要领域、国家、机构、科学家和期刊,对中国地球科学论文产出的主要领域进行比较分析,并通过论文产出、被引频次、篇均被引频次和国际1%顶尖论文数量对比反映中国的科学影响力。结果表明,国际环境科学和生态学研究论文增长很快,占地球科学相关主题领域论文的比例也比较大,但中国生态学研究论文无论从占国内22个学科论文产出的比例,还是从占全球该领域的比例来说都有较大差距;中国地质科学领域研究重点在地球化学、金属矿产和能源的经济地质学,但在环境地质学领域研究相对较少,而国际上环境地质学研究论文的发展已经大大高于传统的地质学论文。     

向家坝水电站地下厂房围岩稳定的黏弹塑性有限元分析

考虑流变作用,建立三维有限元模型进行数值计算,以洞室变形和点抗滑安全系数为指标,针对向家坝水电站地下厂房围岩的特殊性进行稳定性研究,结果表明,随着围压的增高,流变速率逐渐减小,初始应变逐渐减小;软弱夹层处流变速率较其他岩体减小缓慢,且开挖后流变达到稳态状态时软弱夹层最终流变位移较大;黏弹塑性下围岩位移分布及变化规律与弹塑性一致,但黏弹塑性下计算位移明显要比弹塑性大;流变效应对岩体变形和稳定性,以及对支护结构有重要影响;黏弹塑性情况下,洞室围岩特征点抗滑安全系数比弹塑性条件下小,软弱夹层出露处和拱顶点抗滑安全系数较低,点抗滑安全系数分析还表明,软弱夹层对其稳定性影响明显,验证了位移分析结果。