人均历史累积碳排放3种算法及结果对比分析

人均历史累积碳排放概念能够更好衡量碳排放的历史责任,使“共同但有区别的责任”原则更具操作性。目前存在多种人均历史累积碳排放的算法,包括动态人口算法（在某一时间段人均碳排放量的累加和）、静态人口算法（历史上逐年碳排放量的累加和与该国当前人口数之比）和“人年”算法（各国累积的碳排放总量除以累积人数的每人每年碳排放量）。利用这3种算法,本文计算了”G8+5”国家1900年至2010年的人均历史累积碳排放。结果表明,2010年我国的人均历史累积碳排放在这3种算法下分别为30.224tC/人、25.795tC/人和0.406tC/人年。美国在同一时段的数值分别达到我国的16.49倍、12.24倍和11.71倍。由此可见,3种算法都很好显示了发达国家和发展中国家在大气温室气体浓度升高上的历史责任。理论分析表明,基于“人年”概念的人均累积碳排放算法保证了每个人在每年都拥有相同的碳排放权,相对更好地融合了人际公平、代际公平和区域公平的原则。从历史的角度看,欧盟主要排放国和伞形集团的碳排放总量和人均排放量都已过了峰值点,在近几年呈缓慢下降趋势,而我国仍处于快速上升阶段。因此,只有从人均历史累积碳排放的概念出发,采用最佳算法厘清各国的历史责任才有助于更加合理地分配未来碳排放空间。     

产业转移背景下广东省工业碳排放的驱动因素及碳转移分析

随着全球气候变暖,工业碳排放量持续增加已成为全球关注的热点,由于工业产业升级和转移所引起的碳排放空间重塑也成为低碳发展研究的新方向.本文综合运用碳排放量物料平衡法及结构分解模型,核算2001-2017年广东省城市工业各行业的碳排放量,揭示其时空格局演变规律,同时在产业转移背景下,分析工业碳排放变化的驱动因素以及碳转移格...     

广西壮族自治区碳排放时空规律及达峰预测

广西壮族自治区是国家重要的工业原料供应地,但工业化进程缓慢致使碳排放增长显著,为了积极响应国家减排号召,探究广西历史及未来碳排放规律,以期尽早实现碳达峰目标。由于县级碳排放数据可获取性方面的限制,研究以2003—2017年广西县级碳排放数据,进行广西碳排放量、碳排放强度及碳排放压力的时空变化分析,划分广西不同地域碳排放类型和碳排放情景,并利用可扩展的随机性环境影响模型（STIRPAT）对2022—2035年间广西各地域碳排放类型进行了不同情景下碳排放达峰预测。（1）2003—2017年间,广西碳排放总量、碳排放压力增幅明显,碳排放强度明显降低。碳排放总量变异系数总体趋势平稳,呈高强度变异。（2）依据碳排放总量、强度、压力分级组合,碳排放可分为高总量−高强度−高压力型等6种地域类型,根据广西碳排放影响因素的现状及未来发展趋势划分基准情景、节能情景等7种情景。（3）广西全域达峰预测结果显示,4种节能发展情景均能在2030年前完成达峰目标。不同地域类型达峰预测结果显示高总量−高强度−低压力型与高总量−低强度−低压力型采用节能情景可以实现达峰目标。高总量−高强度−高压力型和高总量−低强度−高压力型无法完成达峰目标。低总量−低强度−低压力型,基准情景等5种情景均能在2030年前完成达峰目标。低总量−高强度−低压力型在2018年便已实现达峰目标。研究系统分析了广西整体及内部碳排放变化,指出了可达峰的情景模式,可为广西碳排放预测,制定减排措施提供理论与技术支持。     

Role of nuclear energy,geothermal energy,agriculture, and urbanization in environmental stewardship

The global issue of atmospheric variations and global warming caused by diverse anthropogenic behaviors is a global concern. There is apprehension about preserving an uncontaminated atmosphere and attaining optimal nuclear and geothermal energy utilization with agriculture sector development. In this regard, this paper investigates the influence of nuclear energy, geothermal energy, agriculture development, and urbanization on carbon emissions and ecological footprint from 1990Q1 to 2019Q4 in the case of China. The findings of unit root tests reveal that all variables are stationary at first integration order, and cointegration test findings confirm the presence of long-run relationships among series. The quantile autoregressive distributive lag (QARDL) method findings demonstrate that nuclear energy, geothermal energy, and urbanization statistically correlate with CO2 emissions and ecological footprint across all quantiles, indicating that these determinants have contributed to environmental degradation. Whereas agricultural development has a statistically significant and negative influence on the environment, implying that agriculture has a pollution-mitigation impact. Based on these empirical findings, several policy implications are presented to preserve environmental quality to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target.     

中国海洋渔业碳平衡状态及影响因素研究

低碳是海洋循环经济实现的重要途径,实现海洋渔业的碳平衡是海洋传统经济转变的重要发展方式。本文通过对2013—2022年全国及沿海9省(区)的海洋捕捞碳排放量与碳汇量测算,在此基础上分析了全国及沿海9省(区)的碳平衡状态,并利用灰色关联度分析碳平衡状态影响因素的关联度。结果表明除2020年-2022年山东省的碳平衡状态为盈余外,其他均为碳赤字状态。对于碳平衡状态的影响因素,总体来看全国与沿海9省(区)关联度较大的是海洋捕捞产量、捕捞人员数量和海水养殖面积。最后从加快渔船的升级改造与更新淘汰、调整捕捞的作业方式、提高海水养殖贝藻类的养殖规模以及加快渔业专业合作组织的建立和加速推广渔业碳汇交易提出相关对策建议,以期尽快地实现海洋渔业的碳平衡。     

Fairness critically conditions the carbon budget allocation across countries

Countries’ nationally determined contributions to mitigate global warming translate to claims of country specific shares of the remaining carbon budget. The remaining global budget is limited by the aim of staying well below 2 °C, however. Here we show how fairness concerns quantitatively condition the allocation of this global carbon budget across countries. Minimal fairness requirements include securing basic needs, attributing historical responsibility for past emissions, accounting for benefits from past emissions, and not exceeding countries’ societally feasible emission reduction rate. The argument in favor of taking into account these fairness concerns reflects a critique of both simple equality- and sovereignty-principled reduction approaches, the former modelled here as the equal-per-capita distribution from now on, the latter as prolonging the inequality of the status-quo levels of emissions into the transformation period (considered a form of “grandfathering”). We find the option most in line with fairness concerns to be a four-fold qualified version of the equal-per-capita approach that incorporates a limited form of grandfathering.