DRY-WET EVOLUTION IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE DURING LAST 500 YEARS

1 INTRODUCTIONThe global warming change has already become one ofthe focuses that many scientists pay attention to, and theprecipitation change of China is also one part of thequestionsunder the whole world changes today. Accord-ing to the actual material analysis, the climate in Chinahad a warm-dry tendency in a wide spread range duringthe past one hundred years (ZHAO, 1993), and it couldnot draw a verdict as for future tendency at present. Fol-lowing the thought of Prof. HUANG Bing…     

海气陆相互作用的准四年振荡机制

目前有关Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ（Ｌａ Ｎｉｎａ）形成机制的讨论,大多是强调海气的相互作用。实际上地气互作用过程中形成的异常气流对于Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ／Ｌａ Ｎｉｎａ的形成也是必不可少的,海气和地气相互作用过程应该是耦合的,不应该加以分离。本文综合了近年来我们得到的有关研究结果,提出了一个海气陆相互作用过程的准四年振荡过程,用来解释Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎａ形成机制和亚洲大陆气候年际变化机制。     

The relationship between ENSO cycle and temperature,precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain area

El Nino and La Nina are the events concerned internationally. The corresponding relationship between E1 Nino events, temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain area are analyzed according to the date fi‘om the weather and the hydrometric stations in the area, the results show that effects of E1 Nino events to temperature, precipitation and runoff are different in the different time and zones. When E1 Nino occurs, temperature rises, but precipitation and runoff decrease in the whole Qilian mountain area, especially in the east and middle parts of the area. Temperature rises, precipitation and runoff still decrease in the eastern Qilian mountain area in the next year El Nino occurring, but decrease extent is fewer. There are not obvious relationship between temperature,precipitation and runoff with El Nino events in the western Qilian mountain area.     

ElNino事件当年和次年夏季低纬环流特征的初步分析

分析１９５０年以来中等强度以上的ＥｌＮｉｎｏ和ＬａＮｉｎａ当年和次年夏季低纬度风场和５００ｈＰａ高度距平场发现有不同特征。其中中－西太平洋近赤道地区８５０、２００ｈＰａ上风场异常变化十分明显,这种异常变化与南北半球大气相互作用有密切关系。     

不同类型和强度的厄尔尼诺事件对次年华南前汛期降水的可能影响

根据气象行业标准（QT/T370-2017）对厄尔尼诺事件不同类型的划分结果以及国家气候中心最新颁布的华南前汛期业务监测标准,利用1961~2016年NCEP/NCAR日、月尺度再分析大气环流资料、海表温度资料（ERSST V4）以及华南261个国家气象观测站逐日降水资料,采用相关、合成等方法分析了不同类型、强度的厄尔尼诺事件特征以及与次年华南前汛期的关系,并探讨其海温和大气环流异常特征。结果表明,厄尔尼诺事件的类型、强度对次年华南前汛期降水的影响存在明显差异。中等及以上强度东部型厄尔尼诺事件次年,华南前汛期开汛早、结束晚,前汛期持续时间长、降水多;弱等级的东部型以及中部型厄尔尼诺事件次年则相反。在厄尔尼诺事件次年华南前汛期,中等及以上强度东部型厄尔尼诺相对弱东部型或中部型厄尔尼诺的大气环流存在明显差异。高层西风急流明显加强,中层北半球极涡加强,东亚大槽强,低层菲律宾以东存在反气旋异常环流,华南存在南北风的交汇和水汽辐合加强,有利于华南前汛期降水偏多。     

Interannual Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the Northern Indian Ocean Associated with ENSO and IOD

The Northern Indian Ocean(NIO) sea surface temperature(SST) warming,associated with the El Ni o/Southern Oscillations(ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) mode,is investigated using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) monthly data for the period 1979 2010.Statistical analyses are used to identify respective contribution from ENSO and IOD.The results indicate that the first NIO SST warming in September November is associated with an IOD event,while the second NIO SST warming in spring-summer following the mature phase of ENSO is associated with an ENSO event.In the year that IOD co-occurred with ENSO,NIO SST warms twice,rising in the ENSO developing year and decay year.Both shortwave radiation and latent heat flux contribute to the NIO SST variation.The change in shortwave radiation is due to the change in cloudiness.A cloud-SST feedback plays an important role in NIO SST warming.The latent heat flux is related to the change in monsoonal wind.In the first NIO warming,the SST anomaly is mainly due to the change in the latent heat flux.In the second NIO warming,both factors are important.     

A STUDY OF CLIMATOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF FLOW FIELD AND HEAT EXCHANGE ON TROPICAL PACIFIC SURFACE IN THE EL NINO AND LA NINA EVENTS

In this paper, based on the 2°× 2° grid data COADS from 1950—1987 the flow field and heatexchange anomalies on the tropical (11°S—11°N, 120°E—80°W) Pacific surface (TPS) are studiedin El Nino and La Nina events. During E1 Nino, the zonal pressure gradient and the trade windsdecrease on the TPS, the tropical convergence strengthens on the TPS, especially on the centralTPS, the sensible and latent heat exchanges increase, the net longwave radiation and incident solarradiation decrease and the net gain (loss) of heat reduces (increases) on the central and easternTPS. During La Nina the results turn out the contrary. Finally, two feedback mechanisms whichinclude the dynamic, thermal and hydrological processes during E1 Nino and La Nina are summa-rized and a conceptive model for El Nino-La Nina cycle is given.     

2009年全球重大天气气候事件概述

2009年,全球表面气温为有器测记录以来的第五暖年。年初,暴风雪、低温和寒潮天气席卷欧洲大部,北美频繁遭受暴风雪的袭击;中国北方出现严重秋冬连旱;澳大利亚东南部持续罕见高温;夏季,中国东部、南亚、欧洲多国、美国西海岸遭受高温热浪袭击;年内,澳大利亚、墨西哥、非洲东部持续于旱。6月,一次厄尔尼诺事件开始形成。2009年,西北太平洋和大西洋的热带气旋活动均较常年偏少。     

澳大利亚夏季大雪与南极海冰三个气候开关

通过对澳大利亚气温资料和环南极海冰资料对比验证,我们发现澳大利亚夏季大雪与对面南极大陆海冰增加在时间上有一一对应关系.我们在2003年就提出,环南极海冰变化是全球气候变化的调节器,德雷克海峡海冰在全球气候变化中起重要作用.2006年澳大利亚夏季大雪验证了这一结论:气候和构造是地球系统中的两个相关因素,它们受天文周期控制.德雷克海峡海冰的减少加快了环南极西风漂流,减慢了南太平洋环流,使东澳大利亚暖流变弱,为南极冷空气袭击澳大利亚东南部的塔斯马尼亚岛创造了条件.特别值得指出的是,潮汐有1.1、2.06、2.2、10、11、22、31、56、62年变化周期,潮汐周期与太阳黑子周期的叠加效应为解释厄尔尼诺、气温、海温、海冰、地磁、地震的11年和22年周期变化提供了理论根据.     

A 3100-year history of argon isotopic and compositional variation at El Chichón volcano

El Chichón volcano has produced at least 11 eruptive events in the past 8000 years, all of which display a relatively constant trachyandesitic composition. The constancy of the eruptive products attests to the tapping of a long-lived magma chamber and suggests a system held in steady state between the influx of basaltic magma and differentiation of resident magma. We have sampled eruptive products from eight of these events, subjecting their dominant phenocryst phases (plagioclase and hornblende) to argon isotopic analysis in order to investigate the dynamics of a steady state magmatic system. Plagioclase from the older eruptions, 1500 yr BP, 1600 yr BP, 2000 yr BP and 3100 yr BP, display variable enrichment of ⁴⁰Ar (excess argon), whereas hornblende from the same eruptions shows little or no enrichment. In contrast, both plagioclase and hornblende phenocrysts from the younger eruptions in 1982, 550 yr BP, 900 yr BP and 1250 yr BP have argon isotopic ratios near-atmospheric values. Isochron analysis of these mineral phases rules out xenocrystic contamination as the source of excess argon, while mafic enclaves and isotopic and compositional zoning evidence frequent recharge events, suggesting the source of this argon is most likely the same as the source of this basaltic magma; correlation with Cl points to melt/vapor inclusions as the primary host for Ar within the phenocrysts. Argon isotopic variations point to a disturbance of the system between 1500 yr BP and 1250 yr BP, while compositional evidence for a major mafic input is present in the 900 yr BP eruption, indicating a complex relationship between recharge and isotopic signature of eruptive products. The amount of excess argon within a plagioclase phenocryst are a function of variations in melt and vapor inclusion abundance, time elapsed between melt/vapor inclusion entrapment and eruption, variations in Ar abundance in melt (itself a function of vapor exsolution timing) and time variations in Ar isotopic composition of the melt; subdued behavior of hornblende is due to slower diffusion and minimal inclusions.