2014年夏季我国气候异常及成因简析

2014年夏季,全国平均气温为21．1℃,较常年同期偏高0．2℃。全国平均降水量为320．1 mm,较常年同期偏少1．6％,空间分布呈现北少南多的显著特征,其中黄淮地区平均降水量与1999年并列历史同期最少。进一步对2014年夏季我国降水异常成因分析表明,东亚夏季风偏弱及西北太平洋副热带高压偏强、偏南是造成我国夏季降水北少南多的直接原因;印度洋海温偏暖和厄尔尼诺状态共同作用导致副热带高压持续偏强偏南;两者是造成降水异常的重要外强迫条件。     

与厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜相联系的中国南方冬季降水的年代际异常特征

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析大气环流资料、哈得来中心海温资料、中国700多站降水资料以及全球格点降水资料,详细分析了中国南方冬季降水异常的特征,并揭示了其所对应的欧亚大气环流和东亚冬季风异常与ENSO事件的联系,以及ENSO暖/冷位相对其影响的非对称性。研究进一步证明了厄尔尼诺是导致中国南方冬季降水偏多的重要外强迫因子,并指出拉尼娜对中国南方冬季降水的影响表现出明显的年代际变化特征。1980年之前的拉尼娜年冬季,东亚冬季风显著偏强,东亚大槽偏深,西北太平洋副热带高压偏弱偏东,中国南方受一致偏北风影响,气温偏低,降水偏少,多表现为冷干的气候特征。但1980年之后的拉尼娜年冬季,东亚大槽偏弱,印缅槽偏强,同时在菲律宾以西激发出异常气旋性环流,使得异常偏东风控制中国南方,有利于热带水汽输送增强,因此降水偏多。同时,1980年之后的拉尼娜事件还使得东亚副热带西风急流偏强偏北,中国南方处于急流入口区的右侧,通过二级环流使得中国南方上空的上升运动偏强,有利于降水偏多。因此,1980年之后的拉尼娜年冬季,中国南方易表现出冷湿的气候特征,有时也容易发生低温雨雪冰冻灾害。进一步分析表明,1980年以后拉尼娜成熟期海温异常空间分布型的变化,以及北半球大气环流的年代际变化可能是导致拉尼娜对东亚大气环流的影响在1980年之后发生变化的重要原因。     

淮河流域6—7月涝年降水的10~30d低频振荡特征

利用1981—2010年全国753站逐日降水资料,NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料和NOAA向外长波辐射资料,通过小波分析和Lanczos滤波的方法,得到淮河流域6—7月涝年降水的10~30 d低频振荡特征并进行了分析。结果表明:(1)淮河流域6—7月涝年降水具有明显的10~30 d周期变化。(2)位于高、低空的低频(10~30 d)反气旋和气旋分别影响南亚高压和西太平洋副热带高压的东西进退,从而影响淮河流域的低频降水强度。(3)在850 h Pa上,南海上空的低频反气旋(气旋)和日本海地区的低频气旋(反气旋)使得淮河流域有(无)冷暖气流交汇,并随着低频反气旋和气旋向东北方向移动,造成淮河地区低频降水发展为活跃(中断)期。(4)在低频降水过程中,低频OLR负(正)值区域发展加强对应淮河流域降水过程加强(减弱),当负(正)值区到达淮河流域时,淮河流域降水到达极端活跃(中断)期。随后低频OLR负(正)值区向东移动,淮河流域低频降水过程向过渡期转变。     

华北地震发生日期之间关系的讨论——纪念唐山大地震35周年

从异年倍九法（或称异年倍九律）讨论了华北7级以上大震发生日期之间的关系。这种关系对今后在类似季节预测大震的发生日期有一定的参考作用。     

An annually resolved bristlecone pine carbon isotope chronology for the last millennium

We present the first near millennium-length, annually resolved stable isotope record from bristlecone pines (Pinus longaeva, D.K Bailey). The carbon isotope ratios from the cellulose of seven trees from the White Mountains of California, corrected for anthropogenic changes in atmospheric chemistry, are used to reconstruct growing season (June through August) precipitation back to AD 1085. Extremely negative isotope results are strongly correlated with proposed severest El Niño events over the last 500 yr, and similar values in the first half of the millennium are used to reconstruct a further 13 strong El Niño events, concentrated in the 12th Century and the mid 13th and 14th Centuries. Ring-width chronologies from adjacent sites in the White Mountains demonstrate a high degree of decadal covariance with the δ¹³C series, although there are several periods of notable divergence.     

Sensitivity of Kelani streamflow in Sri Lanka to ENSO

As part of an effort to demonstrate the use of climate predictions for water resources management, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences on stream flow in the Kelani River in Sri Lanka were investigated using correlation analysis, composite analysis and contingency tables. El Niño (warm phase of ENSO) was associated with decreased annual stream flow and La Niña (cold phase of ENSO) with increased annual flows. The annual stream flow had a negative correlation with the simultaneous ENSO index of NINO3·4 that was significant at the 95% level. This negative correlation is enhanced to a 99% level if the aggregate January to September or the April to September stream flow alone were considered. Although, there is little correlation between ENSO indices and stream flow during the October to December period, there is a high correlation between rainfall and NINO3·4 (r = 0·51, significant at the 99% level). Therefore ENSO based rainfall predictions can be used along with a hydrological model to predict the October to December stream flow. This study demonstrates the viability of using ENSO based predictors for January to September or April to September stream flow predictions in the Kelani River. The October to December stream flow may be predicted by exploiting the strong relationship between ENSO and rainfall during that period. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Relation between Tectonic Movement and Climatic Change

Climate and tectonics are two interactive factors in the earth's system. They are controlled by astronomical cycles. It has been unheeded for a long time that large-scale material motion caused by global climatic change is one of the powers for tectonic movement. Tectonic movement makes the distributional pattern of continent and ocean change and makes global climate type change strongly in large scale. It is a good example that the change of the sea-ice around Antarctic Continent and in the Drake Passage has the switch process for global climatic changes. Tide makes the oceanic crust of the East Pacific Ocean and the West Pacific Ocean rise or fall 60 cm oppositely. Before and after El Nino events,the oceanic level of the East Pacific Ocean and the West Pacific Ocean may rise or fall 40 cm oppositely. Because of isostasy, oceanic crust may fall or rise 13 or 20 cm. They are the reasons why El Nino events are interrelated with the earthquakes and volcanoes. This is so called seesaw phenomenon of oceanic crust.     

Strong Tides in 1964 and 1982

The differential rotation between solid and fluid caused by tidal force can explain a 1500 to 1800-year cycle of the climate change. Strong tide increases the vertical and horizontal mixing of water in ocean by drawing the cold Pacific water from the depths to the surface (or by making the warm water flow from the West Pacific to the East as well as from the North to the South). It cools or warms the atmosphere above and makes La Nina or El Nino occur in the whole world. Astronomical data have shown that strong tide is often associated with El Nino events. Volcanic activities at submarine are also controlled by strong tide. Volcanic activities can also draw warm water from the depths to the surface in the Pacific and volcanic ash can keep out sunlight, which is the most important external forcing factor for El Nino. If volcanic ash reaches into the stratosphere, finer aerosols will spread throughout the globe during a few months and will float in it for one to three years to weaken the sun's direct radiation to the areas. It is one of the factors to postpone EI Nino just like the process of solar eclipse.     

DRY-WET EVOLUTION IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE DURING LAST 500 YEARS

1 INTRODUCTIONThe global warming change has already become one ofthe focuses that many scientists pay attention to, and theprecipitation change of China is also one part of thequestionsunder the whole world changes today. Accord-ing to the actual material analysis, the climate in Chinahad a warm-dry tendency in a wide spread range duringthe past one hundred years (ZHAO, 1993), and it couldnot draw a verdict as for future tendency at present. Fol-lowing the thought of Prof. HUANG Bing…     

The Latest Research Progress on El Ninod

1　ＭａｔｈｅｍａｔｉｃＭｏｄｅｌｏｆＴｉｄａｌＶｉｂｒａｔｉｏｎＳｕｐｐｏｓｅｔｈａｔ 3ｓｅｍｉ -ａｘｅｓｏｆａｅｌｌｉｐｓｏｉｄａｒｅａ ,ｂａｎｄｃ (ａ >ｂ >ｃ) ,ｌａｔｉｔｕｄｅｉｓθ ,ｌｏｎｇｉｔｕｄｅｉｓψ(ｃｈａｎｇｉｎｇｆｒｏｍ 0°ｔｏ 90°) ,