Variational iteration solving method for El Niño phenomenon atmospheric physics of nonlinear model

A class of E1 Niйo atmospheric physics oscillation model is considered. The E1 Niйo atmospheric physics oscillation is an abnormal phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. The conceptual oscillator model should consider the variations of both the eastern and western Pacific anomaly patterns. An E1 Niйo atmospheric physics model is proposed using a method for the variational iteration theory. Using the variational iteration method, the approximate expansions of the solution of corresponding problem are constructed. That is, firstly, introducing a set of functional and accounting their variationals, the Lagrange multiplicators are counted, and then the variational iteration is defined, finally, the approximate solution is obtained. From approximate expansions of the solution, the zonal sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the thermocline depth anomaly of the sea-air oscillation for E1 Niйo atmospheric physics model can be analyzed. E1 Niйo is a very complicated natural phenomenon. Hence basic models need to be reduced for the sea-air oscillator and are solved. The variational iteration is a simple and valid approximate method.     

Transient,seasonal and interannual variability of the Taiwan Strait current

We have constructed a fine-resolution model with realistic bathymetry to study the spatial and temporal variations of circulation in the Taiwan Strait (TS). The TS model with a resolution of 3～10 km derives its open boundary conditions from a larger-scale model. The QSCAT/NCEP winds and AVHRR SST provide forcing at the sea surface. Because of the high resolution in model grids and forcing, the model achieves a previously unavailable level of agreement with most observations. On biweekly time scales surface-trapped current reversals often lead to Strait transport reversals if the northeasterly wind bursts in winter are sufficiently strong. On seasonal time scales the northward current is the strongest in summer since both summer monsoon and pressure gradient force are northward. The summer northward current appears to be relatively unimpeded by the Changyun Rise (CYR) and bifurcates slightly near the surface. With the arrival of the northeast monsoon in fall, downwind movement of China Coastal Water (CCW) is blocked by the northward current near 25.5°N and 120°E. In winter, the northward current weakens even more as the northeasterly monsoon strengthens. The CCW moves downwind along the western boundary; the CYR blocks part of the CCW and forces a U-shaped flow pattern in the northern Strait. Past studies have failed to reveal an anticyclonic eddy that develops on the northern flank of CYR in winter. On interannual time scales a weakened northeast monsoon during El Niño reduces advection of the cold CCW from the north and enhances intrusion of warm water from the south, resulting in warming in the TS.     

ElNio夏季太平洋上空垂直环流特征及我国汛期降水

本文利用NCAR(美国国家大气研究中心)1976年太平洋各层风场资料,计算了0°—50°N,105°E—110°W范围内,7月850hPa,700hPa,500hPa,300hPa,250hPa和200hPa各层上的垂直运动,并与叶笃正等所作的太平洋上空夏季平均环流特征作比较得出:(1)常年Walker环流明显,而E1 Ni(?)o发生年热带西太平洋上升运动减弱,东太平洋空气下沉区变成了强上升区,Walker环流下沉区东移至110°W以东;(2)常年热带西太平洋Hadley环流不明显,沿160°E以东Hadley环流越来越清楚,呈向东递增的趋势,而E1 Ni(?)o年Hadley环流东西变化甚为复杂,Hadley环流的上升支并不在赤道附近,而移至10°N左右,明显较常年偏北,Hadley环流也变成自热带向副热带倾斜的环流圈;(3)E1 Ni(?)o发生年,夏季以淮河为中心的空气上升区变成下沉区,而37°N以北的华北地区仍是上升区,华北多雨,所以出现Ⅰ型降水。     

青岛和烟台滨海海、气温差的时间变化

本文根据近３０ａ来青岛和烟台逐月气温及滨海水温资料，分析了青岛和烟台海、气温差的时间变化，发现秋、冬季节南岸青岛海、气温差大于北岸烟台；春、夏季则相反．通常当年平均或季平均气温为负距平时，年平均或冬季平均海、气温差为正距平，而夏季平均海、气温差为负距平，对于ＥｌＮｉｎｏ及反ＥｌＮｉｎｏ年结论与之相反．     

The oil spill behaviour model of the canadian atmospheric environment service. Part II: Evaluation of model guidance for emergency response

Abstract

In a companion paper the theoretical basis for the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service oil spill behaviour model was discussed along with its evaluation, in non‐real time, using data collected from field experiments and a real spill. This paper deals with the use of the model in real time to provide guidance in support of the emergency created by an oil spill in the Canadian Beaufort Sea. The spill of about 2440 barrels of diesel oil occurred in September 1985, the result of storm damage to an artificial island used for hydrocarbon exploration.

Model simulations were carried out for two time periods while the spill was being tracked. These simulations identified the marked shifts in the direction of movement of the spill. While the predictive skills for the two time periods varied, with re‐initialization the final observed slick location was predicted to within 2 km. This model prediction was used by the regulatory authorities as guidance information in locating the slick when it could not be easily spotted from the air. The prediction of the size of the slick 27 h after initial time was in very good agreement with observations. A qualitative evaluation of the model‐simulated weathering of the oil was also carried out.     

岩性和种植年限对火龙果地土壤碳、氮、磷生态化学计量特征的影响

以石漠化问题突出区域——广西平果县太平镇耶圩火龙果种植园不同岩性背景(白云岩、碎屑岩)和不同种植年限(1、3、5a)土壤为研究对象,采用相关性分析和冗余分析方法探讨了不同岩性背景和火龙果种植年限下土壤碳、氮、磷生态化学计量特征及其影响因素。结果表明：①白云岩区土壤全磷含量显著高于碎屑岩区,而土壤有机碳含量、生态化学计量比(C/N、C/P和N/P)显著低于碎屑岩区;且白云岩和碎屑岩背景下的生态化学计量比(5.96、11.78、1.96和8.71、19.78、2.28)均远低于全国水平。②随着火龙果种植年限的增加,土壤有机碳、全氮含量和C/N、C/P、N/P呈现出逐渐增加的趋势,而土壤有效氮、全磷和有效磷含量无显著变化规律。随着土层深度增加,土壤有机碳、全氮、有效氮含量和C/N、C/P、N/P均增加,而土壤全磷含量无明显变化规律。③土壤C/N和C/P与有机碳、有效氮均呈显著正相关(P<0.01),而与土壤水分、容重呈显著负相关,土壤N/P与全磷呈显著负相关。④冗余分析表明不同岩性背景和火龙果种植年限下土壤有效氮含量是土壤碳、氮、磷及其生态化学计量比的重要影响因子,且呈显著正相关关系(P<0.01)。白云岩背景下火龙果的生长受到氮元素的影响更大,长期火龙果种植有利于碳、氮元素固存,土壤有效氮含量是影响土壤碳、氮、磷及其生态化学计量比的关键因子。     

西太平洋暖池冰期旋回中的类ENSO式演化及其驱动机制

作为全球接受太阳辐射最多、表层海水温度最高的区域,西太平洋暖池区通过厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)和季风等过程影响着全球气候的变化。越来越多的沉积记录证明,在地质历史时期西太平洋暖池也存在类似于现代ENSO过程的“类ENSO式”变化。而目前类ENSO式变化与冰期—间冰期旋回之间的响应关系和驱动机制及其与东亚季风的关联仍存在争议。本文利用位于暖池核心区的B10岩心浮游有孔虫氧同位素、Mg/Ca(质量分数比)和黏土矿物参数重建了暖池区氧同位素8期以来的古气候记录,并结合已有的热带海表温度记录、中国石笋氧同位素和南大洋地区海表温度记录,研究了西太平洋暖池冰期旋回中类ENSO状态的演化规律及其与东亚季风的关系,并探讨了暖池区类ENSO演化的驱动机制。结果发现:冰期时,西太平洋暖池区温跃层变浅,赤道东、西太平洋温差减小,同时,东亚夏季风减弱,暖池区降水量相对减少,与现代El Niño时期气候态类似;间冰期时,西太平洋暖池区温跃层加深,赤道东、西太平洋温差增大,东亚冬夏季风增强,暖池区降水量相对增加,与现代La Niña时期气候态类似。频谱分析结果表明,西太平洋暖池区海表温度的变化具有偏心率周期(96 ka)。冰消期时,低纬度太阳辐射量的增加,增大了纬向上的SST梯度,并使得次表层海水储存了更多的热量,积累的热量会通过调节次表层环流向暖池区的热传输,最终调控赤道太平洋地区Walker环流强度和ENSO活动的长期变化。而冰期时,南大洋地区降温所引起的东南信风和大洋环流异常可能对类ENSO式起到调控的作用。     

Assessment of the Hydrogeochemical Characteristics of Groundwater Resources at some Wadis in the East of El Minia Governorate, Eastern Desert, Egypt

The El Minia governorate lies within the Nile Valley, surrounded by calcareous plateaus to the east and west. The present study focuses on the hydrogeochemistry of the Eocene limestone aquifer at some wadis in the east El Minia governorate, Eastern Desert, Egypt. Hydrogeologically, two main aquifers are encountered in the study area, namely the Maghagha marly limestone and the Samalut chalky limestone aquifers. The Maghagha aquifer is composed of alternating layers of marly limestone and shale with thicknesses ranging from 3.49 m to 177.05 m and a groundwater depth ranging from 8.5 m to 59.27 m which reflects low groundwater potentiality. The groundwater salinity representing this aquifer ranges from 603.5 mg/L to 978.5 mg/L, reflecting fresh water type. Samalut aquifer is made up of chalky, cavernous and fractured limestone with thickness ranging from 30 m to 205 m and groundwater depth ranging from 9 m to 86.77 m, which indicates good groundwater potential. The groundwater salinity of the concerned aquifer ranges from 349.7 mg/L to 2043.9 mg/L, reflecting fresh to possibly brackish water types. Groundwater in the study area is of meteoric water origin; recent recharge is mainly controlled through the presence of fractures and their densities. The majority of groundwater samples in the study area are suitable for drinking and irrigation purposes.     

Impacts of large-scale teleconnections on climate variability over Southwest Asia

The atmospheric low frequency variability at a regional or global scale is represented by teleconnection. Using monthly dataset of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) for the period 1971–2016, the impacts of four large-scale teleconnection patterns on the climate variability over Southwest Asia are investigated. The large-scale features include the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) teleconnection patterns, as well as western tropical Indian Ocean (WTIO) sea surface temperature anomaly index. Results indicate that ENSO and EA are the first leading modes that explain variation of Southwest Asian precipitation, with positive (negative) anomalies during El Niño (La Niña) and the negative (positive) phase of EA. Variation of Southwest Asian near-surface temperature is most strongly related to WTIO index, with above-average (below-average) temperature during the positive (negative) phase of WTIO index, although the negative (positive) phase of NAO also favours the above-average (below-average) temperature. On the other hand, temperature (precipitation) over Southwest Asia shows the least response to ENSO (WTIO). ENSO and EA individually explain 13 percent annual variance of precipitation, while WTIO index explains 36 percent annual variance of near-surface temperature over Southwest Asia. Analysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis Interim (ERA-Interim) data indicated establishments of negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies in the middle troposphere over Southwest Asia during El Niño (La Niña) or the negative (positive) phase of NAO, EA and WTIO. The response of precipitation variability over Southwest Asia to NAO is opposite to that expected from the geopotential height anomalies, but the correlation between precipitation and NAO is not statistically significant. Due to predictability of large-scale teleconnections, results of this study are encouraging for improvement of the state-of-the-art seasonal prediction of the climate over Southwest Asia.