潮汐和地震对全球气候变化的影响

2004年12月26日印尼地震海啸后,全球低温冻害和暴雪灾害频繁发生。"潮汐调温说"和"深海巨震降温说"是一种合理的解释。根据"潮汐调温说"和"深海巨震降温说"理论,2005年全球气温将因为印尼地震海啸和强潮汐南北震荡而降低。美国国家航空航天局(NASA)的科学家认为,一个较弱的厄尔尼诺现象和人类排放的温室气体将使2005年成为人类有记载以来最热的一年。事实上,2005年的温度低于1998年。现在,西方科学家也承认了2005—2007年自然气候的变化抵消了全球气候变暖效应这一客观事实。     

准四年周期的北半球夏季遥相关与东亚夏季风环流的相互关系

利用ＮＭＣ的２００ｈＰａ和８５０ｈＰａ风场资料研究了北半球夏季遥相关和东亚夏季风异常环流在准４年时间尺度上的相互关系。研究发现当北半球夏季出现积雪强迫型遥相关时,东亚－西太平洋地区既存在异常纬向环流,也存在异常经向环流;而当出现东亚太平洋型遥相关时,东亚－西太平洋地区以异常纬向环流为主。分析还发现源于北太平洋的异常涡旋在向南传播的过程中,先取西南路径,在到达菲律宾东部以后折向东南。     

青藏高原多,少雪年后期西北干旱区降水的对比分析

利用１９５７－１９９０年高原地区的雪深,地面气温,地温以及西北干旱区部分站强降水量资料等,进行了高原地区多,少雪年积雪特下,地震热状况以及西北干旱区的期降水量的对比分析和相关分析。     

AN EXPERIMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS FORECAST OF TYPHOON TRACK

Obvious results have been achieved in the forecast of typhoon track that is improved with a consensus procedure Forecast experiments were conducted with the analogue model (TSF) and the Markov type model (MTSF)that are widely used and the results show that there has been significant increase in the capability of forecasting with the improvement by the consensus procedure.     

El Nino事件当年和次年夏季低纬环流特征的初步分析

分析1950年以来中等强度以上的ElNiño和LaNina当年和次年夏季(7月)低纬度风场和500hPa高度距平场,发现有不同的特征。其中中-西太平洋近赤道地区850、200hPa上风场异常变化十分明显,这种异常变化与南北半球大气相互作用有密切关系。在500hPa高度距平场上,北半球中、高和低纬地区表现出不同的正、负距平分布型式。上述特点对气候短期预测有一定参考意义。     

Connections Between Different Types of El Ni~no and Southern/Northern Oscillation

It has long been acknowledged that there are two types of El Ni(n)o events,i.e.,the eastern Pacific El Ni(n)o (EE) and the central Pacific El Ni(n)o (CE),according to the initial position of the anomalous warm water and its propagation direction.In this paper,the oceanic and atmospheric evolutions and the possible mechanisms of the two types of El Ni(n)o events were examined.It is found that all the El Ni(n)o events,CE or EE,could be attributed to the joint impacts of the eastward advection of warm water from the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) and the local warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific.Before the occurrence of CE events,WPWP had long been in a state of being anomalous warm,so the strength of eastward advection of warm water was much stronger than that of EE,which played a major role in the formation of CE.While for the EE events,most contribution came from the local warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific.It is further identified that the immediate cause leading to the difference of the two types of El Ni(n)o events was the asynchronous variations of the Southern Oscillation (SO) and the Northern Oscillation (NO) as defined by Chen in 1984.When the transition from the positive phase of the NO (NO+) to NO- was prior to that from SO+ to SO-,there would be eastward propagation of westerly anomalies from the tropical western Pacific induced by NO and hence the growth of warm sea surface temperature anomalies in WPWP and its eastward propagation.This was followed by lagged SO-induced weakening of southeast trade winds and local warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific.These were conducive to the occurrence of the CE.On the contrary,the transition from SO+ to SO- leading the transition of NO would favor the occurrence of EE type events.     

Relationship of Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemispheric 500 hPa Polar vortices

Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly 500 hPa height data on a 2.5 latitude-longitude grid and 1°×1° sea ice data,the polar vortex area,intensity index and arctic sea ice area index are calculated respectively,and the meridional distribution,period variation and the abrupts in the long range trend are analyzed to study their relationship.The results show that the meridional distribution of sea ice and polar vortex h-ave distinctive difference,the relative positions of them are different in the eastern and western hemispheres,and exept they have periods of 4 months,quasi half year,quasi year,4-5 years and 10 years commonly,and each of them has its own respective variation as well.The sea ice area is decreasing apparently since 1980's,so is the polar vortex area,but their abrupt changge time are different totally.The area of sea ice and polar vortex has prominent positive correlation,but the relationship of sea ice intensity,polar vortex intensity,polar vortex area is complicated.     

在Zebiak-Cane模式中观测MJO强迫对ENSO可预报性的影响, 第1部分:对最大预报误差的影响

With the observational wind data and the Zebiak-Cane model, the impact of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as external forcing on El Ni(n)o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability is studied. The obs...     

海洋初始状态对预报2002/03年中太平洋型厄尔尼诺事件的作用

2002/03年厄尔尼诺事件,是暖海温中心出现在赤道中太平洋区域的一种新型厄尔尼诺,即中太平洋型厄尔尼诺。本文基于一个厄尔尼诺预测系统,利用三组回报试验来详细区分海洋表层和次表层初始状态对预报2002/03年中太平洋型厄尔尼诺事件的作用,并由此来探寻对预报厄尔尼诺演变过程最有利的初始条件。回报试验分为三组:(1)仅同化海表温度观测(sea surface temperature;简称SST)来优化海洋表层初始状态(Assim_SST);(2)仅同化海表高度观测(sea level;简称SL)来更新海洋次表层初始状态(Assim_SL);(3)同时同化SST和SL观测来一起更新海洋表层和次表层初始状态(Assim_SST+SL)。回报试验结果表明,三种不同的初始条件都可以使模式提前一年成功地预报2002/03年厄尔尼诺事件,并且"Assim_SST+SL"回报试验的效果最好。三组回报试验结果间的对比表明:海洋表层和次表层初始状态均对成功地预报该事件有重要作用,但其作用分别集中在事件发展的不同阶段。精确的海洋表层初始状态更容易激发模式预报出一次厄尔尼诺事件,而更合理的海洋次表层初始状态则能有效地提高厄尔尼诺事件预报的强度。     

The status of artisanal fishing in El Salvador

El Salvador is one of the most environmentally degraded nations in Latin America, but the declining fishing industry is under-studied compared with deforestation and landuse. This paper examines the reactions to fish stock decline of two generations of fishers in La Union, El Salvador on the Golfo de Fonseca, one of the most important fishing areas in Latin America, using face to face interviews and questionaires. Both older (>35 years) and younger (<36 years) fishers supplemented their income with trading, farming and loans from their relatives in the United States. All older fishers reported larger fish catches five and ten years previously than at present. Previously, fishers caught more fish, but significantly more younger fishers than older fishers reported their fathers caught more fish than they did, indicating an increasing gap in fish catches in recent decades. More younger fishers than older fishers had fathers or male kin who were also fishers, indicating young men were less likely to join fishing without a parent or kin already involved. Minorities of both older and younger fishers engaged in supplementary activities. Environmental degradation disuaded fishers from switching to farming or hunting. The findings are similar to findings elsewhere on the decline of fish resources and generational gaps in environmental knowledge, but differ in that some other studies report fewer opportunities for fishers to access alternative or complementary activities. These findings are relevant to Latin American studies, considering the great value of the Golfo de Fonseca to the livelihoods of Central America.