CMIP5模式中El Ni?o-EAWM关系的模拟对东亚冬季风模拟的影响

本文利用统计学的方法,评估了17个参加第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)的海气耦合模式对东亚冬季风(EAWM)年际变化的模拟。结果表明:多数模式对东亚冬季风的年际变化有一定的模拟能力,其中对东亚大槽年际变化的模拟最好;模式对东亚冬季主要系统的年际变化在空间上的模拟好于强度,对强度的模拟以偏弱为主;通过综合评估得到模拟能力好的模式有:bcc-csm1-1,CCSM4,HadCM3,NorESM1-M。针对模式间对冬季风年际变化模拟能力差别较大的现象,选取了4个模拟能力最好的模式和5个最差的进行讨论;通过评估El Ni?o对东亚冬季环流的影响,发现模式对El Ni?o与EAWM之间相互关系(El Ni?o-EAWM)的模拟能力是模式间对冬季风年际变化模拟偏差较大的原因之一,即对El Ni?o-EAWM模拟好的模式对东亚冬季风年际变化的模拟也好。     

Hydrochemical dynamics of the “lake–spring” system in the crater of El Chichón volcano (Chiapas,Mexico)

El Chichón volcano (Chiapas, Mexico) erupted violently in March–April 1982, breaching through the former volcano–hydrothermal system. Since then, the 1982 crater has hosted a shallow (1–3.3 m, acidic (pH ∼ 2.2) and warm (∼ 30 °C) crater lake with a strongly varying chemistry (Cl/SO₄ = 0–79 molar ratio). The changes in crater lake chemistry and volume are not systematically related to the seasonal variation of rainfall, but rather to the activity of near-neutral geyser-like springs in the crater (Soap Pool). These Soap Pool springs are the only sources of Cl for the lake. Their geyser-like behaviour with a long-term (months to years) periodicity is due to a specific geometry of the shallow boiling aquifer beneath the lake, which is the remnant of the 1983 Cl-rich (24,000 mg/l) crater lake water. The Soap Pool springs decreased in Cl content over time. The zero-time extrapolation (1982, year of the eruption) approaches the Cl content in the initial crater lake, meanwhile the extrapolation towards the future indicates a zero-Cl content by 2009 ± 1. This particular situation offers the opportunity to calculate mass balance and Cl budget to quantify the lake–spring system in the El Chichón crater. These calculations show that the water balance without the input of SP springs is negative, implying that the lake should disappear during the dry season. The isotopic composition of lake waters (δD and δ¹⁸O) coincide with this crater lake-SP dynamics, reflecting evaporation processes and mixing with SP geyser and meteoric water. Future dome growth, not observed yet in the post-1982 El Chichón crater, may be anticipated by changes in lake chemistry and dynamics.     

El Ni?o影响热带大气季节内振荡的动力学研究

根据El Ni?o期间热带大气状态的异常特征，确定了在简单大气动力模式中描写海温异常的参数化方法。然后利用斜压半地转两层模式从动力学上分析研究了El Ni?o对热带大气低频波的影响。理论分析同有关热带大气季节内振荡的资料分析结果完全一致，El Ni?o事件使热带大气季节内振荡减弱。     

THE FREQUENCY CHARACTERISTICS OF WARM AND COLD EPISODES IN THE NI(N)O REGIONS

On the basis of NOAA/CPC data of sea surface temperature anomaly in the Nino regions during Jan. 1950 - Dec. 2003, the wavelet power spectrum of SST were studied with significance and confidence testing at different scales in this paper. It shows that the SST are provided with multi-time scales structure nested one another, and vary on scales of 2 - 7 years, 8 - 20 years and ＞30 years. The most significant variation of the warm and cold episodes is in the 4-year band of period. The power, frequency structure and confidence of the same episode are different in different Nino regions. The intensity of oscillations is increasing at low frequency bands and decreasing at high frequency bands from east to west in the Nino regions, especially after 1970.     

2000年上半年全世界地震灾害综述

２０００年１～６月份全球地震活动水平为中等编高,但地震灾情较轻,半年内共发生Ｍ≥６地震７６次,其中Ｍ≥７地震８次,Ｍ≥８地震１次,全世界地震共计造成１７３人死亡,１０００多人受伤,经济损失约１亿～２亿美元,重大灾害地震主要发生在印度尼西亚。     

Why Was the Strengthening of Rainfall in Summer over the Yangtze River Valley in 2016 Less Pronounced than that in 1998 under Similar Preceding El Niño Events?——Role of Midlatitude Circulation in August

It is widely recognized that rainfall over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) strengthens considerably during the decaying summer of El Niño, as demonstrated by the catastrophic flooding suffered in the summer of 1998. Nevertheless, the rainfall over the YRV in the summer of 2016 was much weaker than that in 1998, despite the intensity of the 2016 El Niño having been as strong as that in 1998. A thorough comparison of the YRV summer rainfall anomaly between 2016 and 1998 suggests that the difference was caused by the sub-seasonal variation in the YRV rainfall anomaly between these two years, principally in August. The precipitation anomaly was negative in August 2016——different to the positive anomaly of 1998. Further analysis suggests that the weaker YRV rainfall in August 2016 could be attributable to the distinct circulation anomalies over the midlatitudes. The intensified "Silk Road Pattern" and upper-tropospheric geopotential height over the Urals region, both at their strongest since 1980, resulted in an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over midlatitude East Asia with anomalous easterly flow over the middle-to-lower reaches of the YRV in the lower troposphere. This easterly flow reduced the climatological wind, weakened the water vapor transport, and induced the weaker YRV rainfall in August 2016, as compared to that in 1998. Given the unique sub-seasonal variation of the YRV rainfall in summer 2016, more attention should be paid to midlatitude circulation——besides the signal in the tropics——to further our understanding of the predictability and variation of YRV summer rainfall.     

PREDICTION AND VERIFICATION OF THE 1997-1999 EL NINOAND LA NINA BY USING AN INTERMEDIATE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED MODEL*

The numerical simulations,hindcasts and verifications of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) have been conducted by using a dynamical tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupled model named NCCo.The results showed that the model had performed reasonable simulations of the major El Nino episodes in the history,and the model forecast skill in 1990s had been significantly improved.NCCo model has been used to predict the tropical Pacific SSTA since January 1997.The comparisons between predictions and observations indicated that the occurrence,evolution and ending of the 1997-1998 El Nino episode have been predicted fairly well by using this model.Also,the La Nina episode that began in the autumn of 1998 and the developing tendency of the tropical Pacific SSTA during the year 1999 have been predictedsuccessfully.The forecast skills of NCCo model during the 1997-1999 El Nino and La Nina events are above 0.5 at 0-14 lead months.     

Singularly perturbed solution of coupled model in atmosphere-ocean for global climate

A box model of the interhemispheric thermohaline circulation （THC） in atmosphere-ocean for global climate is considered. By using the multi-scales method, the asymptotic solution of a simplified weakly nonlinear model is discussed. Firstly, by introducing first scale, the zeroth order approximate solution of the model is obtained. Secondly, by using the multi-scales, the first order approximate equation of the model is found. Finally, second order approximate equation is formed to eliminate the secular terms, and a uniformly valid asymptotic expansion of solution is decided. The multi-scales solving method is an analytic method which can be used to analyze operation sequentially. And then we can also study the diversified qualitative and quantitative behaviors for corresponding physical quantities. This paper aims at providing a valid method for solving a box model of the nonlinear equation.     

Interannual variability of monsoons in Malaysia and its relationship with ENSO

Interannual variations of the monsoons have been studied utilising homogeneous rainfall records of 41 years (1951–1991) from Malaysia and upper air data of stations in Asia, Australia and Western Pacific. Sources of upper air data are U.S. Department of Commerce and Kuala Lumpur Northern Winter Monsoon Activity Centre. Extreme wet and dry years have been identified and the influence of ENSO on Malaysian annual rainfall has been discussed. Influence of ENSO on the performance of northern summer and winter monsoons has also been studied from Malaysian rainfall data. Further, regional circulation patterns associated with El Nino and La Nina years have also been identified. No linear trend has been found in the annual rainfall of 16 stations in Malaysia. Most El Nino years are associated with below median and La Nina years with above median rainfall at most stations in Malaysia. ENSO has greater influence over East Malaysia than peninsular Malaysia. Interannual variability of rainfall with reference to ENSO conditions has been discussed in details. Also, circulation features have been identified to foresee El Nino/La Nina events.