Enregistrement de la variabilité hydroclimatique au cours des 6500 dernières années sur le littoral de Cabo Frio (Rio de Janeiro,Brésil)

This study concerns a core collected in Brejo do Espinho's lagoon from Cabo Frio littoral (Brazil) submitted to dry influence of local upwelling controlled by north-east trade winds from the South Atlantic and particularly strengthened during El Niño events. Diatoms study supported by sedimentological and isotopic analyses shows dry phases infrequent before 4000 yr, a highly variable climatic phase between 3600 and 2900 yr and from 2400 yr onward a dryness enhancement. To cite this article: B. Laslandes et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

冷暖事件对大气能量循环和纬向平均环流影响的模拟研究

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学与地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室新发展的GOALS 5全球海 陆 气耦合模式研究了暖事件 (ElNi no)和冷事件 (LaNina)对大气能量循环和纬向平均环流的影响 ,并用观测资料进行了对比分析。结果表明 :对于纬向平均资料来说 ,冷、暖事件在热带和副热带地区的大气环流相关量的反相变化特征非常清晰 ,中高纬度地区并不明显。此外 ,还发现 ,暖事件时定常涡动的经向热通量的变化是北半球对流层热带外地区温度异常的主要原因 ,而瞬变波的影响则起抵消作用。冷事件时定常波和瞬变波相互抵消的局地特征也依然存在 ,但瞬变波的影响有所增强。     

Impact of Southern Oscillation on the Frequency of Monsoon Depressions in the Bay of Bengal

The impact of Southern Oscillation on thecyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringthe summer monsoon has been investigated.The analysis of correlation coefficients(CCs) between the frequency of monsoondepressions and the Southern OscillationIndex (SOI) reveals that more depressionsform during July and August of El Niñoyears. Due to this, the seasonal frequencyof monsoon depressions remains little higherduring El Niño epochs even though thecorrelations for June and September are notsignificant. The CCs for July and August aresignificant at the 99% level.The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)is known to affect Indian MonsoonRainfall (IMR) adversely. The enhancedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringJuly and August is an impact of ENSO whichneeds to be examined closely. Increasedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal may bereducing the deficiency in IMR duringEl Niño years by producing more rainfallover the eastern parts of India duringJuly and August. Thus there is a considerablespatial variation in the impact of ENSOon the monsoon rainfall over India and El Niñoneed not necessarily imply a monsoonfailure everywhere in India.The area of formation of monsoon depressionsshifts eastward during El Niño years.Warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomaliesprevail over northwest and adjoiningwestcentral Bay of Bengal during premonsoon andmonsoon seasons of El Niño years.May minus March SOI can provide useful predictionsof monsoon depression frequencyduring July and August.     

The El Salvador earthquakes of January and February 2001: context, characteristics and implications for seismic risk

The small Central American republic of El Salvador has experienced, on average, one destructive earthquake per decade during the last hundred years. The latest events occurred on 13 January and 13 February 2001, with magnitudes M_w 7.7 and 6.6, respectively. The two events, which were of different tectonic origin, follow the patterns of the seismicity of the region although neither event has a known precedent in the earthquake catalogue in terms of size and location. The earthquakes caused damage to thousands of traditionally built houses and triggered hundreds of landslides, which were the main causes of fatalities. The earthquakes have clearly demonstrated trends of increasing seismic risk in El Salvador due to rapid population expansion in areas of high shaking and landslide hazard, exacerbated by deforestation and uncontrolled urbanisation. The institutional mechanisms required for the control of land use and building practice are very weak and present a major obstacle to risk mitigation.     

Mixing, sediment accumulation and focusing using 210Pb and 137Cs

The Portil lagoon is a natural freshwater reservoir located at the southwest of Spain, near the coast. In its surroundings an important tourist complex has been developed since the earlier 1970s. This has resulted in increased loads of nutrients, specially during summer months. In order to evaluate the impact from humans on the lagoon caused by anthropogenic activities, we have determined vertical profiles of excess ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs in a sediment core taken from its bottom. Vertical profile of excess ²¹⁰Pb seems to indicate that the sediment core was affected by large-scale mixing processes. Nevertheless this possibility was ruled out based on the shape of the ¹³⁷Cs vertical distribution after modelling the ¹³⁷Cs profile considering large-scale mixing. The chronology developed from ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs has allowed us to calculate the temporal evolution of the mass sedimentation rate during the last century. This mass sedimentation rate increased in 1973: from 0.08(2) g cm^-2 a^-1 in the period 1900-1973 to 0.17(5) g cm^-2 a^-1 in the period 1973-1995. This increase could be related to land-movements in the drainage area and to permitted sewage inputs into the lagoon, both with its origin in the growing/running of the surrounding tourist complex.     

灾害预报与鸡西煤矿瓦斯爆炸事件

2002年上半年,伴随着厄尔尼诺现象的日益加剧,全球性重大自然灾害频繁发生.6月20日发生在中国黑龙江省鸡西煤矿的瓦斯爆炸事件和6月22日发生在伊朗的强烈地震,时间恰逢月亮近地潮的6月19日和太阳潮半日形变最大值的夏至的6月21日附近,是地球形变和排气较强烈的时段.据国内外有关资料,月球与地球发震有关系的重要条件是“近地点兼朔、望”以及各大行星特定位置的配合,张元东称之为“特殊天象组合期”[1];郭增建等提出,月亮赤纬角或太阳黄赤交角最大时地球形变和排气最强烈[2～5].在此期间,中国各种大的突发性灾难,如空难、海难、火车事故、矿…     

2002年北半球大气环流特征及其对中国气候异常的影响

2002年春末夏初一次新的厄尔尼诺事件形成；1～12月北半球大气环流的主要特征表现为：中纬度地区纬向环流盛行，西太平洋副热带高压持续偏强偏西，我国大部地区气温偏高，降水呈南多北少分布；欧亚地区夏季500hPa位势高度距平场上，中高纬从西到东呈现为“ - ”分布形式，贝加尔湖地区为正距平中心，7月在贝加尔湖地区出现典型阻高；东亚夏季风偏强，南亚夏季风及热带对流指数偏弱；夏季赤道辐合带偏弱等。在上述大气环流的影响下，我国的天气气候发生了异常。     

长江巨洪的强信号探讨

分析了1900年以来长江3次巨洪的3个强信号：(1)太阳黑子活动，(2)厄尔尼诺事件，(3)青藏高原南部大震，它们对大气环流异常的影响分别称为日气作用、海气作用、地气作用，依据长江巨洪和3个强信号的基本事实，讨论了长江发生巨洪的统计规律，指出当3个强信号的出现时间互相重叠时，长江很可能发生巨洪，如果再叠加其它信号，长江发生巨洪的量级更大，这对长江巨洪的超长期预期具有重要的指示作用。     

NUMERICAL STUDY ON DOMINATING FACTOR AND KEY AREA OF EL NINO CYCLE FORMATION*

A coupled model,which is employed to study the dominating factor and key area of El Nino cycle formation,consists of a dynamical ocean model and a statistical atmospheric model.The coupled model with seasonal forcing successfully reproduces the El Nino event cycle which exhibits quasi-regular oscillations with a preferred period of about 4 years.The results show that the heat content(HC) is transported between the eastern and the western tropical Pacific areas.The spatial distribution of HC anomalies for four phases of the whole cycle clearly shows a possible formation mechanism of El Nino.Experiments further suggest that sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific and HC in the central tropical Pacific are the most important factors and the central tropical Pacific is the most important area for determining formation of El Nino cycle.     

Variability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone recorded in coral isotopic records from the central Indian Ocean (Chagos Archipelago)

We have analyzed the stable oxygen isotopic composition of two Porites corals from the Chagos Archipelago, which is situated in the geographical center of the Indian Ocean. Coral δ¹⁸O at this site reliably records temporal variations in precipitation associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Precipitation maxima occur in boreal winter, when the ITCZ forms a narrow band across the Indian Ocean. The Chagos then lies within the center of the ITCZ, and rainfall is strongly depleted in δ¹⁸O. A 120-yr coral isotopic record indicates an alternation of wet and dry intervals lasting 15 to 20 yr. The most recent 2 decades are dominated by interannual variability, which is tightly coupled to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This is unprecedented in the 120 yr of coral record. As the ITCZ is governed by atmospheric dynamics, this provides evidence of a major change in the coupled ENSO-monsoon system.