Effect of Stochastic MJO Forcing on ENSO Predictability

Within the frame of the Zebiak-Cane model,the impact of the uncertainties of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) on ENSO predictability was studied using a parameterized stochastic representation of intraseasonal forcing.The results show that the uncertainties of MJO have little effect on the maximum prediction error for ENSO events caused by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP);compared to CNOP-type initial error,the model error caused by the uncertainties of MJO led to a smaller prediction uncertainty of ENSO,and its influence over the ENSO predictability was not significant.This result suggests that the initial error might be the main error source that produces uncertainty in ENSO prediction,which could provide a theoretical foundation for the data assimilation of the ENSO forecast.     

2016年我国梅雨异常特征及成因分析

利用国家气候中心梅雨监测资料和NCEP再分析资料,对2016年我国梅雨异常特征及其大尺度环流成因进行了分析。结果表明:（1）2016年我国梅雨有明显的区域特征,其中江南区入梅偏早14天,与1995年并列成为1951年以来入梅最早的年份,出梅偏晚11天,梅雨期（量）偏长（多）,但梅雨期日平均降水量偏少;长江区入梅和出梅均偏晚,梅雨期接近常年,但梅雨量偏多一倍以上,梅雨量和梅雨期日平均降水量分别为1951年以来历史同期第三和第二高值;江淮区入梅、出梅及梅雨期接近常年,但梅雨量偏多。（2）对流层高、中、低层环流系统冬夏季节性调整和转变显著提前的共同作用,导致了2016年江南区入梅显著偏早;东亚副热带西风急流、西太平洋副热带高压（副高）和东亚夏季风涌在7月中旬阶段性地南落导致了江南区和长江区出梅偏晚。（3）受到前冬超强厄尔尼诺衰减和春、夏季热带印度洋全区一致海温模态偏暖的影响,梅雨期副高异常偏强,副高西南侧转向的水汽输送异常偏强,并在长江区和江淮区与北方弱冷空气辐合,造成梅雨量异常偏多。     

Warming in the northwestern Indian Ocean associated with the El Niño event

This paper investigates possible warming effects of an E1 Nifio event on the sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） in the northwestern Indian Ocean. Most pure positive Indian Ocean dipole （IOD） events （without an E1 Nifio event co-occurring） have a maximum positive SSTA mainly in the central Indian Ocean south of the equator, while most co-occurrences with an E1 Nifio event exhibit a northwest-southeast typical dipole mode. It is therefore inferred that warming in the northwestern Indian Ocean is closely related to the E1 Nifio event. Based on the atmospheric bridge theory, warming in the northwestern Indian Ocean during co-occurring cases may be primarily caused by relatively less latent heat loss from the ocean due to reduced wind speed. The deepened thermocline also contributes to the warming along the east coast of Africa through the suppressed upwelling of the cold water. Therefore, the E1 Nifio event is suggested to have a modulating effect on the structure of the dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean.     

潮汐和地震对全球气候变化的影响

2004年12月26日印尼地震海啸后,全球低温冻害和暴雪灾害频繁发生。"潮汐调温说"和"深海巨震降温说"是一种合理的解释。根据"潮汐调温说"和"深海巨震降温说"理论,2005年全球气温将因为印尼地震海啸和强潮汐南北震荡而降低。美国国家航空航天局(NASA)的科学家认为,一个较弱的厄尔尼诺现象和人类排放的温室气体将使2005年成为人类有记载以来最热的一年。事实上,2005年的温度低于1998年。现在,西方科学家也承认了2005—2007年自然气候的变化抵消了全球气候变暖效应这一客观事实。     

Planetary-Scale Wave Structures of the Earth’s Atmosphere Revealed from the COSMIC Observations

GPS radio occultation（GPS RO） method,an active satellite-to-satellite remote sensing technique,is capable of producing accurate,all-weather,round the clock,global refractive index,density,pressure,and temperature profiles of the troposphere and stratosphere.This study presents planetary-scale equatorially trapped Kelvin waves in temperature profiles retrieved using COSMIC（Constellation Observing System for Meteorology,Ionosphere,and Climate） satellites during 2006-2009 and their interactions with background atmospheric conditions.It is found that the Kelvin waves are not only associated with wave periods of higher than 10 days（slow Kelvin waves） with higher zonal wave numbers（either 1 or 2）,but also possessing downward phase progression,giving evidence that the source regions of them are located at lower altitudes.A thorough verification of outgoing longwave radiation（OLR） reveals that deep convection activity has developed regularly over the Indonesian region,suggesting that the Kelvin waves are driven by the convective activity.The derived Kelvin waves show enhanced（diminished） tendencies during westward（eastward） phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation（QBO） in zonal winds,implying a mutual relation between both of them.The El Nino and Southern Oscillation（ENSO） below 18 km and the QBO features between 18 and 27km in temperature profiles are observed during May 2006-May 2010 with the help of an adaptive data analysis technique known as Hilbert Huang Transform（HHT）.Further,temperature anomalies computed using COSMIC retrieved temperatures are critically evaluated during different phases of ENSO,which has revealed interesting results and are discussed in light of available literature.     

Archean–Ediacaran evolution of the Campos Gerais Domain — A reworked margin of the São Francisco paleocontinent (SE Brazil): Constraints from metamafic–ultramafic rocks

The Campos Gerais Domain (CGD) in southeastern Brazil is an approximately 180 km × 35 km area of Archean–Proterozoic rocks located southwest of the São Francisco Craton (SFC). The Archean–Paleoproterozoic evolution of the CGD — alongside its potential correlation with the SFC or other cratonic blocks in the region — is currently poorly-constrained. We present the results of systematic petrography, bulk-rock geochemistry, mineral chemistry and geochronology for a suite of scarcely studied mafic–ultramafic rocks from the CGD. We also provide a compilation of previously reported bulk-rock geochemical and spinel group mineral chemical data for mafic–ultramafic rocks throughout the CGD, and geochronological information for various lithotypes in the region. The CGD records a protracted Mesoarchean to Statherian (3.1–1.7 Ga) crustal evolution, which we interpret to share a common history with the southern SFC and their related reworked segments, suggesting that it is a westward extension of this cratonic terrain. The metavolcano-sedimentary rocks of the Fortaleza de Minas and Alpinópolis segments represent a Mesoarchean greenstone belt that is stratigraphically and chemically comparable to Archean greenstone belts worldwide, and that is broadly coeval with a local suite of tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorite (TTG) gneisses and migmatites. U-Pb SHRIMP zircon data from a subalkaline metagabbro yielded a concordia age of ca. 2.96 Ga, revealing a previously unrecognized phase of Archean magmatism in the CGD that can be chrono-correlated with metakomatiite and TTG generation elsewhere in the São Francisco paleocontinent. Our data contradict a hypothesis whereby the metavolcano-sedimentary rocks of the Jacuí-Bom Jesus da Penha and Petúnia segments represent an ophiolite, as previously suggested, instead presenting features that point to formation in association with a continental arc. Coupled with a U-Pb (SHRIMP) crystallization age of ca. 2.13 Ga recorded by zircon grains from a metaultramafic rock, these data highlight that a magmatic event was chrono-correlated with the main accretionary phase of the Minas Orogeny, and with the Pouso Alegre/Amparo and São Vicente complexes. Finally, a U-Pb (SHRIMP) concordia age of ca. 590 Ma — obtained from metamorphic-textured zircon grains from a metaultramafic rock — points to a late metamorphic overprint related to upper amphibolite conditions, brittle fault activation and the juxtaposition of crustal blocks in association with the latest stages of western Gondwana’s assembly in the southern SFC, with later retrogression to greenschist-facies.     

塔里木克拉通东北缘二叠纪镁铁质岩浆氧化物与硫化物成矿条件对比

塔里木克拉通东北缘坡北、磁海等地二叠纪幔源岩浆活动形成了镍钴硫化物矿床和铁钴氧化物矿床,两者赋矿镁铁-超镁铁岩体的年龄相近(290～260 Ma),主、微量元素和Sr-Nd-Hf同位素组成相似,分配系数接近的微量元素比值分布于相同趋势线,揭示两者岩浆源区相同,可能为俯冲板片流体交代的亏损地幔或软流圈地幔。两类矿床镁铁-超镁铁质岩中Co与Ni含量正相关,Co主要富集在基性程度高的岩石中;块状硫化物与磁铁矿矿石中Co与Ni相关性差,Co和Ni具有不同的富集机制,Co热液富集作用明显。北山镁铁-超镁铁杂岩体是地幔柱相关软流圈上涌,诱发俯冲板片交代的亏损岩石圈地幔发生部分熔融,形成的高镁母岩浆演化过程中经历壳源混染、硫化物饱和富集镍钴形成铜镍钴硫化物矿床,富铁母岩浆氧逸度高、富水,岩浆分离结晶磁铁矿、叠加热液作用富集钴,形成铁钴氧化物矿床。     

北极地区地质构造及主要构造事件

北极地区范围很广,北极圈面积达2 100×10⁴ km²,区域地质复杂。通过对北极地区区域地质编图,笔者认为前寒武纪主要由波罗的、劳伦和西伯利亚三大克拉通,以及其间的微板块或地块组成。主要造山带包括新元古代-早寒武世的贝加尔造山带、晚志留世-早石炭世的加里东造山带、晚古生代-早中生代的海西造山带、晚中生代的上扬斯克造山带、新西伯利亚造山带与楚科奇-布鲁克斯造山带。根据北极地区区域地质构造特征,显生宙以来经历的构造事件大致包括:新元古代-早寒武世的贝加尔运动,致使波罗的古陆与斯瓦尔巴-喀拉地块碰撞造山;晚泥盆世-早石炭世的加里东运动,在劳伦古陆周边形成规模巨大的加里东造山带;晚古生代的海西运动,波罗的古陆与西伯利亚古陆的碰撞造山形成海西造山带;北极阿拉斯加-楚科奇微板块裂离加拿大边缘,侏罗纪加拿大海盆开始张开;早白垩世,阿拉斯加-楚科奇微板块继续与西伯利亚碰撞,阿纽伊洋(Anyui Ocean)消亡,形成上扬斯克-布鲁克斯造山带。受北极调查程度影响,许多问题有待进一步研究。     

北阿尔金地区古元古代岩体LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄及其地质意义

北阿尔金是塔里木克拉通变质基底的主要出露区之一。对该区具有侵入接触关系的正长花岗岩和花岗片麻岩进行了LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年研究。正长花岗岩中的锆石多呈椭圆状,具有振荡环带结构,部分颗粒中可见老锆石残核,Th/U值较高,亏损轻稀土元素,富集重稀土元素,具有负Eu异常和正Ce异常的特点,表明该组锆石为岩浆成因。定年结果获得1903±13Ma和2506±55Ma两组年龄加权平均值,前者代表岩体的结晶年龄,后者为捕获锆石年龄,结合区域年代学资料,认为正长花岗岩岩浆侵入过程中可能捕获了太古宇米兰群的古老基底锆石。花岗片麻岩中16个测点的锆石~(207)Pb/~(206)Pb年龄集中于1802±28Ma,代表了岩体侵位时代,其余5个测点的锆石~(207)Pb/~(206)Pb年龄为1911~1951Ma,说明岩浆侵位过程中捕获了部分正长花岗岩的物质。区域地质与同位素年代学研究表明,北阿尔金地区广泛存在2.0~1.8Ga的构造-热事件。获得的花岗质岩石的1.9~1.8Ga的年龄结果,直接证实了北阿尔金存在约1.9Ga的岩浆作用,可能为古元古代Columbia超大陆汇聚事件在该地区的响应,为探讨塔里木板块前寒武纪构造-热事件演化历史提供了新资料。古元古代末期约1.8Ga的花岗片麻岩,代表了后造山伸展阶段的岩浆活动。     

内蒙古额济纳旗地貌特征及其构造、气候事件

根据遥感卫星影像解译及野外地质实地调查,将内蒙古额济纳旗地区的地貌单元划分为中低山区、冲—洪积平原、湖积盆地及风成地貌。根据不同地貌单元组成的沉积物年龄测定和分析,初步认为上新世—早更新世的构造抬升形成苏泊淖尔级湖积阶地;早更新世末(750±60kaBP),发生一次明显的构造抬升活动,形成东、西居延海间的台地;另一次明显的构造抬升记录发生在中更世末—晚更新世初,即149±60kaBP之后,形成黑城冲湖积台地;苏泊淖尔级阶地形成于全新世早、中期,属气候干旱湖泊萎缩形成的气候阶地,阶地沉积物中保存的古风成砂丘,表明晚更新世末—全新世早期气候一度恶化。天鹅湖湖积阶地的形成表明5000a之后一段时间,气候相对适宜;全新世中后期,气候波动强烈,1200aBP出现一次丰水期。